Are You Smarter Than the Front Office v.2018

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

Figured I would post my favorite thread of the year. Time to put your money where your mouth is and post who you would take without the benefit of hindsight.

Take a look at how you did in years past (2017, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2009)

Rules of the game:

 No trades unless it has been reported (such as the broncos-bills trade that Schefty reported was in place until Chubb was available)

You can only take players available.

Be honest. If you have a guy you wanted in the 2nd round and he falls to the 4th, take him in the 2nd like you would have.

 

Who would you take at each pick?

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

#5: Bradley Chubb, DE/Edge NC St - Love the pick. His floor is Malik Jackson. 

#40: Connor Williams OT/OG Texas- I like the Sutton pick and would think hard about Goedert, but at the end of the day we have been searching for the answer at RT for half a decade. The search would end here.

#71 Royce Freeman RB Ore - I really like this pick. He’s the last of this 2nd (well 3rd because Barkley is in a tier of his own) tier of RBs. I think Gallup could be there at 99.

# 99 Deasaun Hamilton WR Pen St- well Gallup came off the board, so I go with another big possession type receiver who may not separate with speed but does so with route runnIng and is a red zone threat.

#106 Tyrell Crosby OT/OG Ore- I love the Jewell pick. Honestly he will quickly become one of my favorite broncos, and I know Crosby wen way later. But if i'm being honest, I thought he would be there at 113, if not him then Shaq Griffen, and I had Crosby as the BPA.

#113 Josey Jewell/Shaq Griffen WILB Iowa/UCF - I don't know if someone would have taken Jewell between 106 and 113. If so then I have Griffen rated just as high. 

I would take both of those trades. History has shown that regardless of the GM rounds 5-7 are essentially the same and the only thing that increases the likelyhood of a hit is more picks.

#156 Tim Settle NT Maryland - freaky athletic, sushi raw. can learn from Peko.

#183 Deon Cain WR Clem - Reminds me of Ashley Lelie. Right now hes just a go route specialist, but his 3 cone drill shows that with hard work he could be so much more.

#217 Bo Scarbrough RB Ala - Similar to Freeman in size/speed/running style but with a lot fewer carries because he cant stay healthy. Worth a flier at this point.

#226 Auden Tate Move TE FSU - I know he was a WR in college but I think he can add 15 lbs and become a matchup threat as a #2/move TE

[broncos67]

#5- Bradley Chubb. I can see the argument for Nelson, but hard to deny the value here. There's people saying he's the best overall prospect in the draft. I think it's undeniable he's the best defensive prospect. I'm thrilled to have landed him.

[elliot878]

Elliot's #5 - Bradley Chubb

Elway's #5 - Bradley Chubb

Not going to get nitpicky with this.  My preference was OL and Nelson, but I'm thrilled to have Chubb.  Those were the players 1 and 1A in the draft, to me.  Getting either at 5 is a huge win.

[elwayfan07]

Bradley Chubb. I love Nelson. However, once Chubb became available, he was the no-brainer pick. 

[champ11]

#5 Lamar Jackson

[thebestever6]

I mean if we could of got value in a trade down I'd like davenport.  But Buffalo was extremely stingy. So it's not like we passed up a haul love chubb.

[BroncosFan2010]

Gold Scenario - #5 Josh Rosen QB

Silver Scenario - Trade back w/ Buffalo. #12 Vita Vea DL

Bronze Scenario #5 Bradley Chubb DE

Had Chubb and Via ranked similarily so I would have taken the R2 picks. Had Rosen as #1 overall on my big board. 

[Broncofan]

DAY 1

I have zero objection with Chubb as he was 1B.   1A was always Rosen though.  But at least it was close.   Like 2 & 3 overall BPA (Darnold #1).   And it was tight (unlike my Foster 1.20 objections in 2017).  

1.05 QB Josh Rosen (Elway - Chubb, zero objections)

 

DAY 2

For Elway, this has been a different day, and in a good way.  No insane-tool/low-football skill guys, and no huge "who is this guy" reaches.   My only stated objection pre-pick was that WR was so deep, we could find value if we waited.  So if I said that before, I'll walk the walk here, and stay with what I said:

2.40 CB Isiaih Oliver (Elway - Courtland Sutton, really good value, just playing the Big Board)

3.71 WR Michael Gallup (Elway - Royce Freeman, understand the pick, but I committed pre-pick to wait on WR, this is best WR on the board, and still thrilled to have him)

3.99 RB John Kelly (Elway - Isaac Yiadom, following through on my different order playing the Big Board, and go with the next RB on my board, and I have Kelly actually 1 spot above Freeman, different type of RB).

Like I said in the Draft Thread, I actually think this is Elway's best Day 2 since 2011, but since I've committed to a different order playing the Big Board and waiting on WR, I'll go here, and I do love the results (but again, this was stated pre-2.40, too, so not just 20-20 hindsight).

DAY 3

4.106 - ILB Josey Jewell (Elway - same).   I called this in my mock, so I'm thrilled.  A+ value.   Great instincts, tape, and short-area burst actually elite.  No change.   Bravo, Elway.

4.113 WR DeSean Hamilton (Elway - same).   I am really tempted to change up and take TE Jaylen Samuels, but truthfully, I get the reasoning with Elway's admission that 2017 3.82 Carlos Henderson won't be a slot guy (so automatically, wasted pick for a gadget guy,  but better to admit it & move on).   Great technique, route-running, hands, and tough.   Classic slot-only guy.  Will be our slot guy in 2019, and split time with Gallup as our 3rd WR this year.    Long-term, Gallup & Hamilton allows us to cut Sanders after 2018 and save more cap $, and then part ways with DT after 2019 if he doesn't restructure.  Cap health FTW!

I made it clear when it happened with the Big Board's talent, that I preferred to stay in the 5.149 & 5.160 spot.  This means I don't get a TE, but I'll address that in bargain FA, or UDFA.

5.149 - T Tyrell Crosby (Elway: Trade 5.149 for 5.154 & 6.221) - had a top 75 grade on him, so I'd have stayed all day and gone here.  RT-only, but can play G - so a perfect fit.  Concussion-risk is why he fell this far, but it makes the price low enough to take the shot.    This also allows us to cut bait with Donald Stephenson and Malik Watson in TC if Veldheer is good to go - and helps get our cap a LOT healthier for 2019.

5.160 - NT Tim Settle - this is a depth pick for 2018, but in 2019, we get our Peko Sr. replacement for 0-tech.    Another 2019 solution to fix our cap woes.

 

UDFA:

T Desmond Harrison

WR Simmie Cobbs Jr.

CB Holton Hill

NT Poona Ford

OLB Jeff Holland (Elway, love it, don't change it)

For UDFA, I posted my love for T Desmond Harrison, we'll bring him in - if the weed issue is a no-go, then I'll nod to AKRNA's Brett Toth - 1, not both.  We should get more OL's in, even with me going Crosby.   I'd also try and get more talent, and going with the character-flag-but-zero-risk-with-UDFA, get CB Holton Hill in.   Tall, lengthy, just the guy we'd look to bring in.   I'd also look at WR Simmie Cobbs Jr. - flyer, but love the production on a bad O/bad team, and successful since his sophomore year (lost Jr. year to injury).  No character flags.   Cobbs & Harrison would be awesome.   Finally, I'd double up on our 0-tech needs, and go with NT Poona Ford.  We need rotational depth at NT, so if both are amazing, good problem to have. 

[champ11]

Yeah in reality I was

1. Rosen

2. Chubb

3. Nelson

I accepted that we weren't going Rosen there so I was expecting and happy to hear Chubb

[AKRNA]

I was pretty consistent with   1. Nelson, 2. Chubb and 3. trade down

 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

On 4/27/2018 at 10:58 AM, Broncofan said:

DAY 1

I have zero objection with Chubb as he was 1B.   1A was always Rosen though.  But at least it was close.   Like 2 & 3 overall BPA (Darnold #1).   And it was tight (unlike my Foster 1.20 objections in 2017).  

1.05 QB Josh Rosen (Elway - Chubb, zero objections)

 

DAY 2

For Elway, this has been a different day, and in a good way.  No insane-tool/low-football skill guys, and no huge "who is this guy" reaches.   My only stated objection pre-pick was that WR was so deep, we could find value if we waited.  So if I said that before, I'll walk the walk here, and stay with what I said:

2.40 CB Isiaih Oliver (Elway - Courtland Sutton, really good value, just playing the Big Board)

3.71 WR Michael Gallup (Elway - Royce Freeman, understand the pick, but I committed pre-pick to wait on WR, this is best WR on the board, and still thrilled to have him)

3.99 RB John Kelly (Elway - Isaac Yiadom, following through on my different order playing the Big Board, and go with the next RB on my board, and I have Kelly actually 1 spot above Freeman, different type of RB).

Like I said in the Draft Thread, I actually think this is Elway's best Day 2 since 2011, but since I've committed to a different order playing the Big Board and waiting on WR, I'll go here, and I do love the results (but again, this was stated pre-2.40, too, so not just 20-20 hindsight).

DAY 3

4.106 - ILB Josey Jewell (Elway - same).   I called this in my mock, so I'm thrilled.  A+ value.   Great instincts, tape, and short-area burst actually elite.  No change.   Bravo, Elway.

4.113 WR DeSean Hamilton (Elway - same).   I am really tempted to change up and take TE Jaylen Samuels, but truthfully, I get the reasoning with Elway's admission that 2017 3.82 Carlos Henderson won't be a slot guy (so automatically, wasted pick for a gadget guy,  but better to admit it & move on).   Great technique, route-running, hands, and tough.   Classic slot-only guy.  Will be our slot guy in 2019, and split time with Gallup as our 3rd WR this year.    Long-term, Gallup & Hamilton allows us to cut Sanders after 2018 and save more cap $, and then part ways with DT after 2019 if he doesn't restructure.  Cap health FTW!

I made it clear when it happened with the Big Board's talent, that I preferred to stay in the 5.149 & 5.160 spot.  This means I don't get a TE, but I'll address that in bargain FA, or UDFA.

5.149 - T Tyrell Crosby (Elway: Trade 5.149 for 5.154 & 6.221) - had a top 75 grade on him, so I'd have stayed all day and gone here.  RT-only, but can play G - so a perfect fit.  Concussion-risk is why he fell this far, but it makes the price low enough to take the shot.    This also allows us to cut bait with Donald Stephenson and Malik Watson in TC if Veldheer is good to go - and helps get our cap a LOT healthier for 2019.

5.160 - NT Tim Settle - this is a depth pick for 2018, but in 2019, we get our Peko Sr. replacement for 0-tech.    Another 2019 solution to fix our cap woes.

 

UDFA:

T Desmond Harrison

WR Simmie Cobbs Jr.

CB Holton Hill

NT Poona Ford

OLB Jeff Holland (Elway, love it, don't change it)

For UDFA, I posted my love for T Desmond Harrison, we'll bring him in - if the weed issue is a no-go, then I'll nod to AKRNA's Brett Toth - 1, not both.  We should get more OL's in, even with me going Crosby.   I'd also try and get more talent, and going with the character-flag-but-zero-risk-with-UDFA, get CB Holton Hill in.   Tall, lengthy, just the guy we'd look to bring in.   I'd also look at WR Simmie Cobbs Jr. - flyer, but love the production on a bad O/bad team, and successful since his sophomore year (lost Jr. year to injury).  No character flags.   Cobbs & Harrison would be awesome.   Finally, I'd double up on our 0-tech needs, and go with NT Poona Ford.  We need rotational depth at NT, so if both are amazing, good problem to have. 

I like it! We saw day 3 in a fairly similar manner.

[BroncosFan2010]

Already posted in this but only concentrated on pick #5. This is what I would have done overall. Lets look back in 2-3 years and see how we did:

1.05 - Josh Rosen QB - UCLA

2.40 - Connor Williams OT - Texas

3.71 - Michael Gallup WR - Colorado St.

3.99 - Ian Thomas TE - Indiana

4.106 - Josey Jewell ILB - Iowa

4.113 - Josh Sweat EDGE - Florida State

5.149 - Tyrell Crosby OL - Oregon

5.160 - John Kelly RB - Tennessee

 

 

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Already posted in this but only concentrated on pick #5. This is what I would have done overall. Lets look back in 2-3 years and see how we did:

1.05 - Josh Rosen QB - UCLA

2.40 - Connor Williams OT - Texas

3.71 - Michael Gallup WR - Colorado St.

3.99 - Ian Thomas TE - Indiana

4.106 - Josey Jewell ILB - Iowa

4.113 - Josh Sweat EDGE - Florida State

5.149 - Tyrell Crosby OL - Oregon

5.160 - John Kelly RB - Tennessee

 

 

If I'm coming off Hamilton at 4.113, man, hard to argue anyone but Sweat.   @BroncoBruin called it b4, but FSU really pidgeonholes their DL's to read and react, not at all what Sweat excels at.  Could be another case where a talented guy actually plays better in the NFL than college.  Only reason why I think he fell as far as he did was the medical risk, though, I think if he fails, it will be the dreaded lack-of-health (still, I'd rather see a guy fail process-wise for that reason rather than a lack of overall football talent).

[BroncosFan2010]

Quote

If I'm coming off Hamilton at 4.113, man, hard to argue anyone but Sweat.   @BroncoBruin called it b4, but FSU really pidgeonholes their DL's to read and react, not at all what Sweat excels at.  Could be another case where a talented guy actually plays better in the NFL than college.  Only reason why I think he fell as far as he did was the medical risk, though, I think if he fails, it will be the dreaded lack-of-health (still, I'd rather see a guy fail process-wise for that reason rather than a lack of overall football talent).

Sweat may have a higher likelihood of reinjury based on his past ACL tear, as all who tear the ACL do, but his injury sure didn't seem to hinder his athleticism at the combine. Tremendous explosion for his HW ratio. Raw as all hell, but we have a elite DL coaching staff to get him coached up. Kid has oodles of potential. He has nearly the same physical profile as Danielle Hunter. I would be surprised if he isn't at the very least a '2nd contract worthy' situational pass rusher.

More athletic with better bend than Chubb in all honesty. Really wish we went a different direction with this draft. Chubb has a 3-cone time that just terrifies me.