Way too soon 7 round 2019 mock

[Swampbilly]

I’m often a bit low on players until the combine, especially skill positions since speed is so important with those.  Let me know what you think.  Am I way off?  Or am I getting close here?  My rounds 3, 4, 5, and 7 picks I could all see going a round sooner but this early this is where I have them going.  Specifically with Pinckney I feel like he will have a sketchy combine and scare some teams away.......nothing against him but that’s been a U of Miami thing the past 8-10 years it seems.  Nevertheless he shows tremendous burst on film.

Round

1.  Tre Adams OT Washington 6’8” 320 Lbs.  Drops to pick 20 due to a torn ACL in 2017.  Juwan James leaves in Free Agency and Adams takes over at RT immediately.  This gives Adams a year to gain experience and more time for the ACL to heal up before taking over for Tunsil, a player that has been disappointing since moving to LT, at Left Tackle in 2020.

2.  Collin Johnson WR Texas 6’6” 220 Lbs.  We let Parker walk in FA since he hasn’t quite matured and been fully dedicated to being a Pro and his injury and performance history shows it.  Johnson jumps up draft boards because of his size and catch radius which compares him to Mike Evans, but his speed is less than ideal and keeps him from cracking into round 1.  Tannehill loves the first two picks.  

3.  Derrick Brown DT Auburn 6’5” 317 lbs.  Phillips still fails to live up to his 2nd round draft status, so in a strong DT class we draft a player that would be a late 1st or 2nd rounder in most drafts to replace him in our DT rotation.

4.  Michael Pinckney OLB The U 6’1” 230 lbs.  We allow Alonso to walk in FA and bring in a player that is more instinctive.  Pinckney drops a round due to slow combine time and low vertical, but we value his instincts for the WOLB spot with Baker manning the Sam and McMillan the Mike.

5.  Albert Okwuegbunam TE Missouri 6’5” 260 lbs.  We continue to churn our roster and create competition at the TE position by drafting a player that is a red zone threat.  11 TD’s in 2017 with 14.9 ypc average.

6.  Jordan Johnson OC Central Florida 6’2” 309 lbs.  Depth and competition to take over for Kilgore in 2020.  Lack of length and small school cause him to drop.

7.  Matt Gay K Utah 6’1” 220 lbs.  Has the leg to hit the 50+ yarders with some consistency, and to drive the ball out of the end zone on Kickoffs.  Has the size to bring down Kick Returners 1 on 1 in the open field.

 

[Tetsujin]

There looks to be a lot of really good 1st round DL prospects for 2019. I'd be upset if we passed on one.

[Swampbilly]

19 hours ago, freak_of_nature said:

There looks to be a lot of really good 1st round DL prospects for 2019. I'd be upset if we passed on one.

I understand, but even if Cam Wake retired tomorrow we would still be loaded at the DE position.  My philosophy on DT’s is that even the greatest of them doesn’t have enough frequent playmaker impact to affect 99% of games.  So why spend a top pick on one?  The worst case is they are a bust of course, but the best case is they are amazing and will tie up a ton of cap space to retain......ie Aaron Donald and Suh.  If a ton of cap space is tied up in the DT position then how do we retain / recruit the players that play the 5 positions that are critical to success in the NFL........QB, OT, WR, DE, CB.  Building a football team inside out has been an outdated philosophy for decades and never more so than now.  Teams are built outside in, especially through the draft, since it is much easier to scheme and isolate an edge defender than an interior defender.  Isolating an interior defender typically gets 5-8 yards but isolating on the edge or perimeter is going 20 yards or more.

The 2019 draft should be a good one for DL and OT’s, but the thing is that since this last draft was a weak OT draft there is going to be a long run on OT’s in the first 2 rounds imo.  If you need one, which it’s looking like we will, better get one as soon as possible.  This draft will be deep at DT’s and will have DT’s in the late second or early third round that would often go in the first.

It’s all about value in more ways than one.  Draft a player of need in the 3rd that has a 2nd round grade and keep the cap funds allotted to the 5 critical positions.

Additionally if you aren’t sold on Derrick Brown as a DT then watch the tackle he makes around the 1:09 mark of the linked video.  

[Tetsujin]

8 hours ago, Swampbilly said:

I understand, but even if Cam Wake retired tomorrow we would still be loaded at the DE position.  My philosophy on DT’s is that even the greatest of them doesn’t have enough frequent playmaker impact to affect 99% of games.  So why spend a top pick on one?  The worst case is they are a bust of course, but the best case is they are amazing and will tie up a ton of cap space to retain......ie Aaron Donald and Suh.  If a ton of cap space is tied up in the DT position then how do we retain / recruit the players that play the 5 positions that are critical to success in the NFL........QB, OT, WR, DE, CB.  Building a football team inside out has been an outdated philosophy for decades and never more so than now.  Teams are built outside in, especially through the draft, since it is much easier to scheme and isolate an edge defender than an interior defender.  Isolating an interior defender typically gets 5-8 yards but isolating on the edge or perimeter is going 20 yards or more.

I disagree with some of this, especially the consideration of a impact DT not being as important as a good OT.

A top DT will cost more cap space to retain than a top OT, I agree. It's because the DT is more impactful and valuable. Plus a 1st rounder is under team control for 5 years, so I wouldnt make the re-sign a deciding factor.

I don't consider team-building to be the "from outside in" vs "from inside out" debate. I consider the DL, as a whole, being the most important unit on the team(besides the QB). Especially having DT's that can get penetration and provide a pass rush.

As far as OL goes, I think you need good-to-adequate guys that work well together. They just need to find their man and execute enough to protect the QB or let the RB get by,esp in the ZBS. Spending big resources on the OL gets diminishing returns. If you get a high-end OT that looks better on film and gets more pancackes -- vs a lesser OT that still sets the edge in the run game and provides adequate protection, I don't think that's worth investing more resources in. But a more dominating DLineman would be worth the bigger investment. Being able to consistently control the point of attack, whether it be the middle or the edge AND provide a consistent pass rushes elevates everyone and makes their jobs easier. It's harder to do that if big investments aren't made. You can have a very serviceable OL without big investments if you scout and develop properly. 

[Swampbilly]

I agree with your view on the OLine with the exception of the OT's.  Additionally I think we likely both agree that todays NFL is more QB driven than ever and a great way to make an average QB look better is to keep him upright and give him Receivers that are always open ( like a 6'4" long armed leaping Longhorn in the 2nd round ).  That's what my first 2 picks are about because that's what I feel is the number 1 priority and I predict both will be needs with Parker and James moving on after this season and with Tunsil looking like a question mark at LT.  I'm not neglecting our need at DT...…… Brown has all the measurables of a first rounder and good production in a tough SEC conference and only falls because of an extremely talented and deep DT draft.

It's long been known / theorized (for decades) that their are 5 positions on a team that translates to success in the NFL.  I've was sold on this when I first heard of it in the late 80's and I believe it's even more valid today than then.  It doesn't mean you don't want great playmakers at the other positions, only that playmakers and elite talents at these positions are more valuable than at others...…….example; would you rather have an elite DT or an elite DE?  If you choose the DT then we've been watching a different game for the past 3 decades.

Bottom line is unless James signs a team friendly long term deal (doubtful but possible because his value will be lower on the open market in 2019 than it was this year) and Tunsil starts to be more consistent looking like the player we picked at 13 I'm 100% sure that OT will be our top targeted position in 2019.  I could see us going DT / OT in rounds 1 and 2 if we get a lot of WR production and 1 of our 2 starting OT issues pans out.  Right now I don't see it in my crystal ball though.

[Tetsujin]

1 hour ago, Swampbilly said:

would you rather have an elite DT or an elite DE?  If you choose the DT then we've been watching a different game for the past 3 decades.

 

The DE, or course. But I'd take a really good DT over an elite OT,  as long as the alt. OT was an adequate NFL starter.

[Swampbilly]

1 hour ago, freak_of_nature said:

The DE, or course. But I'd take a really good DT over an elite OT,  as long as the alt. OT was an adequate NFL starter.

I guess that is where we disagree.  I would choose the elite OT over the elite DT every single time unless I already had an elite LT and very good RT under contract for a few more years.

I loved having Suh on our team, but his elite play didn't translate to wins, and neither does Aaron Donald's or even JJ Watt (3-4 DE / DT).  They are great players and they do help their teams but the interior positions don't make as much impact on a game as the edge positions.  example; if a guard isolates a DT and the RB makes it through the hole without contact there is a LB still there and if the RB makes it through the LB there is a Safety..... not the case with a DE.

Edge positions are tougher to play.  They have more responsibility than most interior positions and require better athletes.  That's why they are the 5 critical positions and typically come with inflated draft stock...…..QB, OT, WR, CB, DE.  That is where you want to focus your 1st round picks until you are set at each one of these positions.

What does a team typically need from a DT?  Eat space......get your hands in passing lanes to harass the short dumps underneath.  Don't get driven off the ball.

What does a team typically need from an OT?  Elite height / weight...….quick feet, long arms, ability to handle the most athletic and dominant players on the field.  To do that an OT has to be nearly as athletic and dominant but with significant more mass to anchor and engulf.

Additionally, OL including Centers and OG's franchise numbers for 2018 are slightly higher than DT's, and the OG and Center positions surely drive that number down from what the true OT franchise tender is.  Just over $14Mil for OL and just under for DT's.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22667868/the-nfl-teams-used-franchise-tag-2018