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Meh. Mahomes at home will always be a favorite IMO

Doesn’t have enough Cooper DeJean.

So with single games, player props being dependent on getting the volume, matchup & gamescript right, even though the game itself looks ugly to be on prime time, there are 2 props that are out, and 1 prop I'm dying to take for TNF, all with alt lines: WEEK 5 TNF PLAYER PROPS DJ Moore O47.5 rec yds (already up to 48.5), 75+ & 100+ rec yds alt lines pending - simply too low for the guy that commands the targets and air yards in CHI. WAS secondary still gives up a lot of yards, so it's not hard to back this. Justin Fields O47.5 rush yds 2U, alt lines pending - if we think the WAS -7 line is set appropriately, then it's a catchup game for CHI. WAS D has a good pass rush, but their weakness, besides secondary, is their lane control - they've given up 6-56 to Russell Wilson and 3-46 to Josh Allen. Because their pass rush is decent, that creates more QB run opps (I'm not going to count on designed QB runs, the OC Getsy <who's awful, btw, right up with there with Matt Canada & Pete Carmichael> isn't calling them). Last year, Fields torched WAS for a 12-88 line. With Moore around and OC Getsy being QB-run gunshy, those are the 2 risks that we don't see this hit, but I'm sticking with the high-usage, best-players with low-ish lines principle. Brian Robinson O63.5 rush yds 2U - with CHI's run D and WAS projected to be winning, we know B-Rob is the hammer. WAS' 2 wins have been comeback wins, but the one quarter we saw them ahead - they used B-Rob as the closer. I may choose to go with a 100+ yd 0.5U alt line, at 63.5 the 75+ isn't probably attractive enough to take. Jahan Dotson ??? (guessing in mid-high 30's, depending on Curtis Samuel) - I know he's hit the under in 4 straight weeks. The last 2 games I've passed on him with the Bills and Week 4 with his heavy slot usage & James Bradberry there (moved to slot with Maddux out, RCB Jobe is the matchup target with PHI D right now). But he's running routes 100% of the time he's out there, he's getting separation on film review, and he got 9 targets last week. And to help his case this week Curtis Samuel is banged up (and he's a far less talented WR). Mclaurin's total is already set at 60.5, so if it's sub-40, it's time to go back to the well with Dotson, with alt lines. There aren't any TD props yet. OTHER NOTES I know ppl will look at Khalil Herbert's 100+ yards and wonder why they should go with Fields instead. Two reasons - Herbert's snap share went up to 72 percent (from an even split with Roschon Johnson) - but DEN's run D and a 21 pt lead both played a heavy role in that usage. With a short week, it's really hard to count on RB work becoming more prevalent, unless there's a clear role usage every week (see: David Montgomery). Secondly, WAS' run D is actually decent, so when you combine that with a negative game script, it's hard to back Herbert this week. Give me a week where CHI is likely to be ahead, or show me that Herbert & Roschon Johnson don't split snaps in trailing scenario, and I can back Herbert's number more easily.

Good on Eberflus for putting together such an incompetent staff that it increases his job security because nobody else can handle resonsibility.

Yeah and I asked why? And then you said because Forbes has been bad but it hasn’t been all bad. 5 passes defended & an int is not all bad. That puts him on pace for 20 passes defended and 4 ints. Then you said Joey Porter Jr has been better but gave no reason on why that may be true. And as I said before any TE we would’ve drafted would’ve had Cole Turner’s role. Logan Thomas is our starter and the tough catches he’s made in the past few weeks over the middle - one for a TD vs Denver is why. Just because you wanted to draft someone instead of who we did draft or want something to be true doesn’t mean it’s true.

There have been few defenses in the history of the NFL that good. Those type of defenses are much more rare than a franchise quarterback.

Ewers, Allen and Nabers

Seems legit.

Shower thought...would you rather have Brock Purdy or C.J. Stroud as triggerman in this 49ers offense??? Stroud has barely played, but what he's doing with a first year head coach, and playcaller with an inexperienced cast is pretty remarkable. Bigger sample size with Purdy though, even if it's still small itself. Hmm...

They should lose all three games though.