Week 5 GDT Texans vs Fighting Josh Allen's

[lumberjackchris]

Pierce is a waste of a roster spot right now.

[Pastor Dillon]

We have not played but 6 guys in the secondary all season. Last week our 5 starters Stingley, Lassiter, Pitre, Murray and Bullock played every snap. That’s 4 guys in their first 3 seasons with 2 rookies. This is not a sustainable thing but we have no other options. 
 

our two linebackers played every play but 1, Hewitt came in for Tootoo for one play. 
 

we already had to play with Jimmy Ward, but we are one more injury away from a disaster in the back 7 

[Pastor Dillon]

Bills gonna be missing several starters. We’ve got a history of making back ups look amazing. 

[lumberjackchris]

15 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Bills gonna be missing several starters. We’ve got a history of making back ups look amazing. 

Apparently Mixon is out for us again

[Dr A W Niloc]

     At first glance, things look bleak for the hometown sods:

=====  Differentials, Blocking, Efficiencies, Wins, DVOAs  ==== 

2024  Points   Points   Diff-Rk || Block | RE PE W/L | DVOAs Ov
1001   Scored  Allowed  ****    || Rn Ps |           | Tl Of Df
           Rk       Rk          ||       |           | 
Buff  30.5--2  20.8-12  +9.7--3 || 18  3 | 22  8 3-1 |  6-10--6
Hous  19.8-17  23.5-22  -3.7-24 || 27 20 | 25  7 3-1 | 20--6-11

    There's a 12 point swing between Buffalo's points differential and Houston's.  Normally, we'd stop reading and place our bets on the visitors now but something catches our eye:

=Most Points + Yards Yielded, Ratings, Run/Pass Mix, Red Zone=

       Team  Fantasy Points |        || L E A S T | Df Def Def
Wk5    2024  to  to  to  to | to to: || Yards     | DV R/P Red
Raw Rk 1002  QB  RB  WR  TE | PK DST || Rn Ps Pts | OA Mix Zon
    ^^                      |        ||           |        
147-10 Buff  22   1  31  13 | 30  29 || 30  6  12 | 10 R-1  13
217=19 Hous   7  25   8  30 | 17  12 || 13  4  22 |  6 P-5  28

      In terms of Fantasy Points, the Bills are the most generous franchise to opposing Running Backs.  Third most generous in yardage.  Buffalo must run the ball down their throats and use those great WRs as decoys and to punish 8-man boxes.  Simple, right?

      Well...

=====  Time of Possession, Total Plays, Runs, Targets, Yards  ====

Pl Tm 2024      RB-Usages         | R/P Running % || Yards | Block
ay Po 1004  QB  Rn-Ps-Use  WR  TE | Mix Prctg Rnk || Rn Ps | Rn Ps
                                  |               ||
30 25 Buff  29  14-24  21  26  18 | R-8 50.45 6th || 17 20 | 18  3
 1  3 Hous   5  19-16  22   4  23 | R-7 38.06  27 || 20  4 | 27 20

      The bad news is that Houston doesn't run particularly often (19th) or well (25th in Run Efficiency), their carcass removers are poor (27th) even when healthy, Buffalo is second stingiest against WRs, and Bills defenders are better than average (13th) in their red zone.

      On the other hand, Houston's ball control is top notch:  most plays run, third in time of possession, and the Bills have injuries where it might hurt most:  DTs Ed Oliver and Austin Johnson will be watching from the bleachers.

      Houston can win this game by making it boring.  "2 yards + a cloud of dust" boring.  Keep Josh Allen and the home team's defense off the field.