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Pastor Dillon

Predict the Roster!

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Let's play a game of Predict the Roster for opening Day!

QB: Watson / Weeden
RB: Miller / Blue / Foreman / Swanson
FB: Prosch
WR: Hopkins / Ellington
WR: Fuller / Coates
WR: Coutee / Miller 
TE: Akins / Griffin / Thomas
LT: Davenport / Rankin
LG: Fulton / Fuller
C: Martin / Mancz
RG: Kelemete / Slade
RT: Henderson / Lamm

DE: Watt / Dunn
DT: Reader / Watkins
DE: Heath / Kamalu
OLB: Clowney / Ejiofor
ILB: Cunnington / Cole
ILB: McKinney / Kalambayi
OLB: Mercilus / Scarlett
CB: Joesph / Johnson
CB: Covin / Bademosi / Kelly
S: Mathieu / Reed
S: Jackson / Decloud / Moore

LS: Weeks
P: Lechler
K: Fairbairn 

Decloud, Kelly, Slade are my last 3 to make the roster. 

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Posted (edited)

Not bad...

Thoughts:

QB: Going to be watching Jets preseason real close as Bridgewater may be the one guy we could realistically bring in that wouldn't mean another lost season if Watson goes down an extended period.  Weedon fits the profile of a game manager backup who could "not lose" a few defensive games in a pinch, but coming off a season where 2 of the best teams barely missed a beat due to high end backups who slotted right into the system, it seems insane to be a snap away from being right back to the Savage, Yates turtle shell offense.  Webb isn't a real QB, but part of me wants to see him succeed in the pre-season so we might be more willing to take a gamble on a better fitting upgrade like RG3.  Wouldn't mind seeing Hoyer back here.

RB:  Bold move w/Swanson who I suspect is mostly competing w/Tyler Ervin for the speed back/special teamer role. I doubt we see Foreman at all this offseason and am starting to think he's gunna be petting the PUP for 6 weeks. It pains me to see Blue on this roster again almost as much as hearing the idiot faithful screaming Bluuuuuuueee which lasts 10 seconds longer than it takes for him to run into his lineman and fall down for a 2.6 yard run.

WR: Not so bold.  No way the Texans carry 6 WRs, especially 3 in the slot.  I'm confident Coutee has that gig nailed and Braxton is going to be moved in one of those "conditional 7th rounder" deals on cutdown day.  Coates speed and physicality are certainly intriguing, but he's got to get past that whole "catching the ball" thing and he seems to go against our offseason theme of intelligence (last year he gave the Irvin first down signal on 2 consecutive plays both a yard short of the marker). I wouldn't count Chris Thompson out either with his special teams ability.  I'm hoping we aren't dumb enough to expose Will Fuller and his pencil thin frame to injury on punt returns again. 

TE: This is where I'd put the 6th receiver as reality that is Stephen Anderson is TE in name only as he's off the field in running situations.  Personally, I'm hoping Atkins and Thomas make the "average at everything, good at nothing" Griffin expendable especially since he's a hit away from Fido-land. 4 TEs is rare, but when you draft 2 it's going to be a possibility.

Oline: There is no way Chris Slade and Kendall Lamm should be on this roster again.  I'll put Roderick Johnson on there for now slight ahead of Jones-Smith, but with the Rankin injury I'm thinking we will end up making a low end deal for a vet like we did when we traded for Chris Clark a few years back.  If nothing else, Clark himself is clearly better than Lamm, so we could always bring him back.  Rooting for DQ, but he needs to be more than a feel good story this year.

Dline : Probably an oversight, but Covington is way ahead of the rest opposite JJ.  Really wish we could push space-takers Dunn or Heath off the roster and am hoping Kamalu improves enough to do so.

LB: I don't think Peters is a lock, but we'll need to see some indication Cole or Scarlett are ready to take over leadership of the ST unit.  I think Ejiofor could end up seeing near starter level snaps before this is over (first in line when Clowney lines up as DE). I get the feeling my Kalambayi love is going to unrequited, but I'm hoping he's a ST's difference maker.

CB: Kelly was a ridiculous waste of a draft pick and doesn't even warrant the IR Resort pass he's likely already earned (already Pup'd). Bandemosi better be more than a special teamer as banking on health from Glass Jaw Johnson and Grandpa Joseph is risking another season of the Marcus Williams, Banks, Burley, Cromartie waiver wire hustle. Not sold on Breeland, but we need a better #4. 

S:  It is absolutely ridiculous that we can't get Corey Moore off this football team.  Tre Boston would have been the perfect replacement for Hal, but Arizona just grabbed him probably at 1/8th of what we're paying Kareem.  Mathieu has been healthy one season in his career.  Drummond is a better special teamer than Moore and I have seen next to nothing to like about Decoud. Please end this madness and sign a real NFL safety like Kenny Vaccaro.  

Edited by Apollo Stallion

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Overall, I find it very disheartening that Gaine doesn't seem to be any more committed to shoring up depth than his predecessor.  This time last year I didn't think a scrub like Giacomini was even going to make the 53, yet he took more snaps than any Texan last year.  Our #3 TE took more snaps than any of our QBs including the one who took 200 snaps coming off the couch to a starting job for the 2nd time in 3 years. I've railed on the #4 CB shuffle enough already, but do you realize Angelo Blackson, Ufamba Kamalu, Lamar Houston, Jelani Jenkins, Gimel President, and Latroy Lewis played 671 defensive snaps last year which is more than healthy starter DJ Reader (526).  Corey Moore and Eddie Pleasant also played more defensive snaps (545) combined than Reader and that's with Hal and Gilchrist healthy all season and almost never coming off the field.

Our depth chart is improved at WR and LB, but we're going to be breaking in questionable starters at LT, RT, RG, TE, and CB, which be definition means their backups are even more suspect.  Covington is a backup on most teams and despite losing Watt two seasons in a row, we still have nothing but UDFAs backing him up. We almost had depth at S before Hal went down but now we're back to Moore getting near starter snaps.  I'm not sure where it's lost on the Texans that a secondary is essentially comprised of 6 starters (Joseph, Colvin, Johnson, Jackson, Mathieu, Reid).  Johnson and Jackson were 2 of the worst CBs in football last year, Joseph is 34, Mathieu has stayed healthy 1 full season in his career, Reid is a rookie at a position with a notoriously tough transition, and Colvin is being asked to move to an outside role he was awful at 2 years ago.  One tweaked hammy and we are right back to having special teamers out there getting humiliated by Brady.

Injuries at QB, T, and CB/S remain season killers for us and if Watt goes down again this secondary is going to be torn apart just like last year.  We should have taken advantage of the slow safety market the second Hal's diagnosis happened. I'm hoping Gaine has a CB in mind like he did with the EJ Gaines swap he pulled off late in Buffalo.  I suspect we're going to have to wait for late preseason/cut down day to bring in a legit backup QB and a tackle, but we're flat nuts if we don't.  Again, the Eagles won the Super Bowl because they planned ahead and had quality depth at QB and LT!

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Here's my prediction. Will post my preferences separately.

  • QB: D. Watson
    • B. Weeden / J. Webb III
  • RB: L. Miller
    • A. Blue / T. Pope
  • FB: J. Prosch
  • WR1: D. Hopkins
  • WR2: W. Fuller
  • WR3: B. Ellington
    • K. Coutee / S. Coates / B. Miller
  • TE: R. Griffin
    • J. Akins / J. Thomas
  • LT: J. Davenport
    • M. Rankin
  • LG: Kelemete
    • K. Fuller
  • C: N. Martin
    • G. Mancz
  • RG: Z. Fulton
  • RT: S. Henderson
    • K. Lamm

 

  • LDE: JJ Watt
  • RDE: C. Covington
    • C. Watkins
    • A. Blackson
  • NT: DJ Reader
    • B. Dunn
  • SAM / JACK: W. Mercilus / J. Clowney
    • B. Scarlett
    • D. Ejiofor
  • MIKE / WILL: B. McKinney, Z. Cunningham
    • D. Cole
    • J. Keyes
    • B. Peters
  • CB1: J. Joseph
  • CB2: A. Colvin
    • K. Johnson
    • J. Bademosi
    • K. Webster
  • FS: T. Mathieu
  • SS: K. Jackson
    • J. Reid
    • K. Drummond
    • C. Moore

 

  • LS: J. Weeks
  • P: S. Lechler
  • K: K. Fairbairn

 

  • PUP: D. Foreman
  • IR Resort:  J. Kelly

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Posted (edited)

I'm going to put cuts here to avoid a new thread.   Clearly there is a new sheriff in town that doesn't mess around with sentimentality, comfort, or seniority over quality.  Pick the best roster - period.  Going to have to adjust my "predictions" going forward to eliminate the "what they should do" vs. "what Rick will do"  calculus.  Some shockers, but everyone right so far - apparently we tried to trade Braxton Milller, but no takers (fyi - nothing is official until tomorrow at 3p, so could still be being shopped to team that wants to cut in front of line in waivers - aka team #32).  

We're at 69 / 16 to go.

Cuts I've seen so far:

  • Treston Decoud!!!!!!
  • Corey Moore!!!!!!!
  • Braxton Miller
  • Shane Lechler
  • David Quessenberry
  • Andre Chachere
  • Terry Swanson
  • Bryce Jones
  • Nick Rose
  • Quan Bray
  • Jester Weah
  • Anthony Coyle
  • Jaryd Jones-Smith
  • Levon Coleman
  • Darius Kilgo
  • Kingsley Opera
  • Kennan Gilchrist
  • Stephen Anderson
Edited by Apollo Stallion

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A few thoughts so far:

  • Getting cut early is actually a good sign for those hoping to get signed elsewhere or back to our practice squad.  Sign of respect to give them max time to on the market, especially guys with service time like Anderson, C. Moore, B. Miller, and Quess.    I'd like Swanson, Gilchrist, Chachere, Quessenberry back on PS. Maybe Bryce Jones and Kingsley Opera.  Decoud, no.
  • Later cuts are usually the Cut/Injured or IR Resorted. Kelly is a candidate and wouldn't be shocked if Kalambayi comes up with a surprise ailment.  Foreman pretty much assured PUP.
  • B. Miller was the only one on the bubble that I saw possibly drawing a conditional 6th or 7th.  Don't see any trades unless we're doing the acquiring.  Tackle to replace Lamm, please!
  • I think Quessenberry has practice squad eligibility left, as rookie year (2013) he was IR'd in season with foot which I believe actually counts since  you're still getting full salary.  Cancer was 2014-2017 and NFI List does not count.  Last year was practice squad and 2 games active.  So this year he could be one of our 4 "veterans" on PS.  Obviously doesn't fit the traditional use of PS as he's 28 and for him it might be time to see if he can latch on somewhere and actually play, cuz development time is over.  Selfishly, stashing him on PS is fine with me as he's not too far behind Fuller and Slade, but make no mistake - they are the better players, now and future.

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1 minute ago, ET80 said:

Jay Prosch cut - @Apollo Stallion is right now building a statue for Brian Gaine.

Decoud, C. Moore, and Prosch in one magical day - Hell, I AM Brian Gaine. 

Kareem Jackson and Kevin Johnson, I'm coming for you next (although I can be a bit more patient to make sure Reid and Webster are totally ready). 

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6 minutes ago, Apollo Stallion said:

Hell, I AM Brian Gaine

Need to get on that Kendall Lamm cut. Like, now.

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Posted (edited)

New cuts in:

  • Jay Prosch
  • Josh Keyes
  • Dee Virgin
  • Mason Gentry
  • Ibrahiem Campbell

Roster at 64 / 11 to go

Nooo, not my boy Keyes although in my heart, I know the LBs and RBs that get the reps in preseason are just seat fillers.  Bellamy still hanging in there.

VIRGIN SACRIFICED* - Would love to see Virgin back for more seasoning on PS.  Solid potential there, but edges are still way too rough.   At least we still have the POPE!

As much as I'd like to think I'm done with Prosch,  he very well could be back for week 2 when contracts aren't guaranteed. Might need Ervin more than him against Pats although I think it's Webb who ultimately took his spot.

*full disclosure, not entirely an original line, but too good not to repeat.  Pope one is all mine, tho.

Edited by Apollo Stallion

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Posted (edited)

Down to 63

  • Rod Johnson

Sadly, had high hopes - but guy is even worse than Lamm. Slade has looked good at guard and can play tackle, but can't honestly say I've seen him play good tackle. A bit penalty prone as well. Rankin has shown enough to be swing tackle in vanilla playbook but there's no telling his grasp of the deeper one. I'm a bit afraid Henderson's "cyst" could keep Lamm around for week 1 security, but counting on Gaine to be bolder than that.  Of course, might want to review tape of Lamm getting destroyed by 3rd-5th stringers all preseason or his week 1 abomination last year if keeping him "for his experience" occupies a fraction of a second.  Whether it's a waiver move Sunday or waiting until after week 1 so the salary isn't guaranteed (likely inactive wk 1 anyway), pretty confident that our 4th tackle isn't on the roster yet. 

Edited by Apollo Stallion

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Posted (edited)

Down to 61

  • Chad Slade
  • Nick Thurman

Whelp there goes the Slade as #4 T option.  Think he'll be back on PS.  Lamm is going to survive cutdowns folks.  Doesn't mean he'll stick since we're 4th in line for waiver shopping, but prepare to be whelmed.

Edited by Apollo Stallion

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Last cuts are always hard.  Some odd decisions on roster make-up

  • Joe Webb III
  • Davin Bellamy
  • Kyle Fuller
  • Ufomba Kamalu
  • Matt Lengel
  • Jevoni Robinson
  • Latroy Lewis
  • D'Onta Foreman to Pup

So this means these guys are ON the roster.

  • Jermaine Kelly - Huh? What? Why? How? Gotta be just here until we make waiver claim then IR him, right?  Worse than Decoud making it last year. Bad draft pick, shows nothing, makes roster.  Got some 'splaining to do Gaine.
  • Angelo Blackson - very excited he made it.  Keeping deeper DL than usual.
  • Sammy Coates - not 100% sold as he drew more PI's than catches, but good downfield threat if/when Fuller gets hurt
  • Tyler Ervin - gets a few more weeks to show something on returns or I suspect Coutee, Coates, or Pope take over
  • Peter Kalambayi - Keyes, Bellamy, Gilchrist, Lewis all outplayed him, but good to be a draft pick of new GM
  • Kendall Lamm - no comment, come on waiver wire
  • Troymaine Pope - has been a preseason revelation 3 years in a row - finally gets to stick
  • MyCole Pruitt - well, I thought 4 TEs was possible, but Pruitt played the Anderson role better than Anderson, so...
  • Vyncint Smith - headscratcher for me.  Made some plays sure, but worthy of keeping 6 WRs over the guy who threw them, no. Hard to get the week 1 int out of my head where he watched/pouted as DB returned int 40 yards
  • Rankin, Mancz, Lamm as only depth on o-line is nuts.  Gotta be a waiver move coming, right?

 

Edited by Apollo Stallion

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13 minutes ago, Apollo Stallion said:

Vyncint Smith - headscratcher for me.  Made some plays sure, but worthy of keeping 6 WRs over the guy who threw them, no. Hard to get the week 1 int out of my head where he watched/pouted as DB returned int 40 yards

I'm really shocked on this one - I for sure thought he'd be a PS guy...

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