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Playoff Odds Report Going Into Week 17

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I used my model to compile a playoff odds report for Week 17. It excludes ties because, really, is that going to happen?


1. New Orleans Saints (13-2)

Clinched: Home-Field Advantage

2. Los Angeles Rams (12-3)

Clinched: NFC West

First-Round Bye: 86.86%

3. Chicago Bears (11-4)

Clinched: NFC North

First-Round Bye: 13.14%

4. Dallas Cowboys (9-6)

Clinched: NFC East, Fourth Seed

5. Seattle Seahawks (9-6)

Clinched: Playoff Berth

Fifth Seed: 87.12%

6. Minnesota Vikings (8-6-1)

Fifth Seed: 12.88%

Playoff Berth: 74.66%

7. Philadelphia Eagles (8-7)

Playoff Berth: 25.34%



1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-4)

Clinched: Playoff Berth

Home-Field Advantage: 69.75%

First-Round Bye: 83.02%

2. New England Patriots (10-5)

Clinched: AFC East

Home-Field Advantage: 10.15%

First-Round Bye: 75.93%

3. Houston Texans (10-5)

Clinched: Playoff Berth

Home-Field Advantage: 3.12%

First-Round Bye: 30.11%

AFC South: 62.91%

4. Baltimore Ravens (9-6)

Clinched: Playoff Berth

First-Round Bye: 6.30%

AFC North: 73.02%

5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)

Clinched: Playoff Berth

Home-Field Advantage: 16.98%

6. Indianapolis Colts (9-6)

AFC South: 18.06%

Playoff Berth: 48.69%

7. Tennessee Titans (9-6)

First-Round Bye: 3.0%

AFC South: 19.03%

Playoff Berth: 51.31%

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6-1)

AFC North: 26.98%


The AFC is far more wide open than the NFC, as 1 rather than 4 divisions have been locked down. Home-field advantage goes to the AFC West 86.73% of the time, but to which team is the question. Go Pats, hopefully they can lock up a bye with a win, or with a lot of luck HFA.

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