TecmoSuperJoe Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 This is as far back as I personally wanted FO to be able to go with their journey in turning back the clock, and looking at the seasons of yesteryear through their metric lens. 1981-2005 in my personal NFL sandbox for a few reasons, one of them of course being the initial year the 49ers dynasty really got off the ground. The 1981 playoffs was one of the NFL's best, and there is a lot of commentary about what happened that season in the write-up, and if certain narratives that have been established hold up or trend more towards romanticization. For instance the first 49ers championship squad ranks quite low in terms of SB champs that FO has profiled. That was something I had suspected for a while, but I was surprised at just how non-dominant the team was despite their 13-3 record, and beating the AFC champ Bengals twice that year (once in Cincinnati, and in the SB). Their special teams output really nuked their ranking, and I didn't even know they tried nine different kick returners that year. Also didn't think the Eagles were that highly rated, especially after the whipping they received at home against the Giants in the wild card. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-analysis/2022/1981-dvoa-49ers-finally-win-it-all-eagles-rule-dvoa Here are some parts in the article that stood out to me: Quote NFL Offseason - Joe Montana and the San Francisco 49ers went 13-3 and won their first Super Bowl title in 1981. Our DVOA ratings are unimpressed. The 49ers only finished the 1981 season 12th in overall DVOA, one of the worst ranks ever for a Super Bowl champion. Instead, the regular-season DVOA title belongs to the defending NFC champions, the Philadelphia Eagles. But the Eagles were one of the least impressive No. 1 teams in DVOA history and squandered a strong start to the season with a four-game losing streak and a wild-card loss to the rival New York Giants. Quote What about the team that actually led the league in DVOA? The Eagles' 25.8% DVOA was the third lowest ever for a team that finished the regular season on top. Only the 1993 Cowboys (24.7%) and 2016 Patriots (25.1%) were on top of the league with lower ratings. The 1981 Cowboys finished second behind the Eagles and their 18.2% DVOA was easily the lowest ever for a No. 2 team. In fact, 1981 is the only year in DVOA history where at least three teams didn't get to at least 20% DVOA. No. 3 San Diego was also the lowest No. 3 team ever. There was plenty of parity in the 1981 DVOA ratings, except for one very, very bad defense. Very, very, very bad. We'll get to them in a little bit. Quote The Eagles began the season 6-0 and were 9-2 after blowing out the Cardinals and Colts in consecutive weeks. Then they lost four straight games in Weeks 12-15, although two of those losses were close. The Eagles rebounded to destroy the Cardinals 38-0 in the final game of the regular season but there was still a sense that the team was in freefall. There's definitely the possibility that recreational drug use was involved. When I first sent out the 1981 ratings to the FO staff, Mike Tanier responded that everything from the early 1980s needs a cocaine asterisk. To quote Mike, "I remember as a kid wondering what the heck I was watching in the second half of that season. There was no injury to explain the collapse. One of the stories at the time was that **** Vermeil was pushing the team too hard. My gut tells me that he had no idea what was going on (or equated 'partying' with 'drinking') and started pressing too hard, which did wear out some of the sober players, especially in 1982, and wore Vermeil out too." The Eagles hosted the rival Giants in the wild-card game. The Giants were in the playoffs for the first time since 1963. They had only finished 16th in DVOA and were missing starting quarterback Phil Simms and outside linebacker Brad Van Pelt, but they built a 27-7 lead at halftime. Philadelphia got two Wilbert Montgomery rushing touchdowns in the second half but couldn't fight all the way back and lost 27-21. A couple of Eagles players later told the press that the Eagles played badly in part because some of them had attended a drug party the night before. Quote The Lions may be a bit of a surprise at 8-8, but they outscored their opponents 397-322 over the course of the 1981 season with a 3-6 record in one-score games. The Lions finished 1-7 on the road but 7-1 at home. Unfortunately, that only home loss came in the final week of the season when the Lions and No. 6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers both entered the game with 8-7 records and the Buccaneers took out the Lions in front of a Pontiac Silverdome crowd of over 80,000 fans. The Buccaneers were ahead 13-10 early in the fourth quarter when Lee Roy Selmon hit Eric Hipple from behind and knocked out the ball. Nose tackle David Logan picked it up on one hop and ran 21 yards for a touchdown. Hipple then threw a red zone pick on the next drive. The Lions did score a touchdown with 1:26 left on an 8-yard pass from Hipple to Leonard Thompson but couldn't gather up the onside kick and that was their season. Quote The Patriots ranked 20th in DVOA despite being 2-14. They easily had the best DVOA rating ever for a 2-14 team, surpassing the 2001 Lions. The Patriots were 0-8 in one-score games, including two losses to the Baltimore Colts by a grand total of three points. Those were Baltimore's only two wins. Quote And oh boy, do we have to talk about the Baltimore Colts. Remember above when I said that 1981 was a year for parity except for one bad defense? The 1981 Baltimore Colts still hold the record for the most points allowed in the regular season: 533 points, or 33.3 points per game. That record has stood up throughout this entire century as the offensive levels around the NFL have exploded. The 2020 Lions came the closest, giving up 519 points. Last year, the Jets gave up 504 points thanks to the extra regular-season game, and that now ranks fourth. But nobody has caught the Colts. The Colts also hold the record for the most touchdowns allowed (68) and rank second in net yardage allowed (6,793). That latter record was finally broken in 2012 when the New Orleans Saints became the only NFL team to ever allow over 7,000 yards in one season. As bad as the Colts were in DVOA in 1981, it's not as bad as they were in standard stats because they played the toughest defensive schedule of the season. The other four AFC East teams all ranked in the top 12 for offense, even the 2-14 Patriots, plus the Colts had to play the top three offenses in the league: San Diego, Cincinnati, and Washington. They lost to those three teams by the combined score of 122-47. Quote Quarterbacks: Ken Anderson may have won his only MVP award in 1981 but Football Outsiders stats are pretty adamant that Dan Fouts was the best quarterback in the NFL. Fouts had 37.9% passing DVOA compared to 31.0% for Anderson, and Fouts beat Anderson easily in DYAR thanks to throwing over 100 more passes. Anderson led the league in touchdown rate and interception rate, but Fouts topped him in net yards per attempt, 7.43 to 7.17. Fouts also had a lower sack rate and played a harder schedule of opposing defenses. I already wrote that Dan Fouts should have easily been MVP of the 1982 season, and I think he should have been MVP of the 1981 season as well. Joe Montana ranked third in passing DYAR in his first full season as the 49ers' starting quarterback. He also led the league in completion rate. Tampa Bay's Doug Williams ranked fourth in DYAR but was slightly ahead of Montana in DVOA despite barely completing 50% of his passes, because he was second in the league with 15.0 yards per completion. Eric Hipple of the Lions, who led the league with 16.8 yards per completion, ended up only 20th in passing DYAR because he had 11 fumbles and 15 interceptions in only 10 games started. Buffalo's Joe Ferguson was fifth in DYAR. Terry Bradshaw was fifth in passing DVOA but lower in DYAR because he had less than 400 pass plays. He also played an easy schedule, which knocks him down a little bit. Quote Tight Ends: By standard stats, Kellen Winslow was the man in 1981. He led the league with 88 receptions and had 1,075 yards with 10 touchdowns, earning first-team All-Pro honors and even some MVP votes (back when the MVP voting panel had more people than the 50 that are on it now). He did this against an above-average schedule of opposing pass defenses. So it's pretty stunning that Winslow did not lead the league in receiving DYAR. Instead, he finished second behind Jimmie Giles of the Buccaneers, whose 17.5 yards per reception was far higher than Winslow's 12.2. Overall, Giles caught 45 passes for 786 yards and 6 touchdowns. Dave Casper of the Oilers was third among tight ends in DYAR and led them in DVOA, scoring 8 touchdowns with 573 receiving yards on just 60 targets. Don Hasselbeck of the Patriots was fourth in by far his best season, gaining 808 receiving yards when he had never managed 200 yards in a season before and never would again. Two other tight ends besides Winslow also managed 1,000-yard seasons and were also a little lower than you would expect by DYAR: Ozzie Newsome of the Browns seventh and Joe Senser of the Vikings eighth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CP3MVP Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Interesting with the Baltimore colts defense. It’s not the least talented ever, so them giving up the most points is crazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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