Analyzing the impact of "deflated" footballs for Brady, Patriots

[tonyto36]

It's officially been 3 seasons since "deflategate".  Three full seasons of data to collect.  I remember reading thousands of posts of how the Patriots had unsustainably led the league in lack of turnovers in the Brady era.  Since Deflategate the Patriots have continued this trend of not turning the ball over.  It let Brady grip the ball better to make easier throws in poor weather, it prevented RBs from fumbling when it was wet, etc. etc.   Patriots had a disproportionately high success rate at holding on to the ball, and it was clearly the result of deflated footballs.   The Patriots won the turnover battle, and therefore won games because of deflated footballs.

Or did they?

 

Patriots Team Giveaways:

2017:
INT - 8 (T-2nd)
FUM - 4 (T-2nd)

2016: 
INT - 2 (1st)
FUM - 9 (T-13th)

2015:  
INT - 7 (1st)
FUM - 7 (T-2nd)

 

 

Tom Brady:
Career averages [minus 2008] per season:  331/517 ATT/CMP (64%), 3891 yards, 7.51 YPA, 28.7 TD, 9.4 INT, 4.9 FUM.   97.6 RAT

2012-2014 seasons [3 seasons prior to deflategate, in 'modern' era]:  

12-4 record, 401/637 63%, 4827 yards, 34 TD 8 INT.  1.3 INT%.  79.4 QBR  98.7 RAT
12-4 record, 380/628 60.5%, 4343 yards,  25 TD 11 INT.   1.8 INT%.   65.9 QBR  87.3 RAT
12-4 record, 373/582 64.1%, 4109 yards, 33 TD 9 INT.  1.5 INT%.  79.9 QBR  97.4 RAT

2015-2017 seasons [3 seasons post deflategate]:
12-4 record, 402/624, 64.4% 4770 yards, 36 TD 7 INT.   1.1 INT%  71.2 QBR  102. 2 RAT
14-2 record, 291/432 67.4% 3554 yards, 28 TD 2 INT.   0.5 INT%   83.0 QBR  112.2 RAT
13-3 record, 385/581, 66.3% 4577 yards, 32 TD 8 INT.   1.4 INT%  70.2  QBR  102.8 RAT

 

Conclusions:

1.  Patriots since 'deflategate' have been the best team in the NFL at preventing giveaways from both fumbling and interceptions.  This is in spite playing in New England [vs a dome/southern team]

2.  Despite being older and theoretically declining, Brady has, post deflategate been superior at:
- Yards per game [4 game suspension prevents total yards being superior
-Total touchdowns
-Touchdowns per game
-Total interceptions
-Interceptions [total, per game, percentage]
-Win %
-QBR
-Rating

3.  The Patriots have continued to win at a higher rate post 'deflategate' (39-9 = 13-3 per season) than they had in Bradys career before hand (157-16 = ~12-4 per season)

4.  Any advantage gained from supposed deflated footballs was at best, minuscule
 

[TomRalph]

They should give us the 1st Overall Pick as a result of Deflategate and making us trade Jimmy G for a napkin

[Hunter2_1]

Similar post "spygate". 

It's laughable people actually think we deflated footballs.