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6.203 - MIN: Blake Brandel T/Oregon State

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28 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Also true is that most without injury concerns also do not.

The point is that players who fall due to injury flags are often considered “steals” by fans or analysts who see them as great value based on predraft rankings that often don’t factor in those concerns.

Those players generally don’t exceed their draft position, meaning the effects of the injury are usually priced in correctly by the draft. So a “1st round talent” who falls to the 4th because of injury usually performs like a 4th rounder, not a 1st rounder, even if that pick may have been considered a “steal” at the time.

Even Jaylon Smith hasn’t really exceeded his draft position as an early 2nd round pick. He was supposed to be a generational talent before his injury. He’s been good, but he’s not even the best LB on his team.

Hurst is a better example of an exception to this rule, as he really has lived up to his tape grade — a 1st round talent who fell to the 5th. The “injury” in his case was concern for a heart condition, which evidently doesn’t affect his play and hasn’t kept him out of the league. The Vikings needed a 3-tech pass rusher, Hurst was the best player at that position in the draft, but they took Holmes in the 4th instead, so it’s fairly obvious he was off their board entirely.

This is a consistent pattern with the Vikings. I’m not saying it’s optimal or can’t be criticized, just that it’s predictable.

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2 hours ago, Krauser said:

The point is that players who fall due to injury flags are often considered “steals” by fans or analysts who see them as great value based on predraft rankings that often don’t factor in those concerns.

Those players generally don’t exceed their draft position, meaning the effects of the injury are usually priced in correctly by the draft. So a “1st round talent” who falls to the 4th because of injury usually performs like a 4th rounder, not a 1st rounder, even if that pick may have been considered a “steal” at the time.

Even Jaylon Smith hasn’t really exceeded his draft position as an early 2nd round pick. He was supposed to be a generational talent before his injury. He’s been good, but he’s not even the best LB on his team.

Hurst is a better example of an exception to this rule, as he really has lived up to his tape grade — a 1st round talent who fell to the 5th. The “injury” in his case was concern for a heart condition, which evidently doesn’t affect his play and hasn’t kept him out of the league. The Vikings needed a 3-tech pass rusher, Hurst was the best player at that position in the draft, but they took Holmes in the 4th instead, so it’s fairly obvious he was off their board entirely.

This is a consistent pattern with the Vikings. I’m not saying it’s optimal or can’t be criticized, just that it’s predictable.

Oh, I agree completely. The fan assessment of the value of draft picks is silliness. That is true whether the reason for a player being picked lower is injury related, character related, or simple a projection of a player to the NFL level.

It isn't that I think draft efficiency is perfect. There are some inefficiencies that can be exploited. However, in the grand scheme, a players value at draft time is pretty close to where they actually were drafted.

Sometimes the steal of the draft falls because he is a player that is likely to be in a situation that requires him to try using a whizinator.  Yeah, he wasn't a steal. His draft position priced in the knucklehead risk.

After the draft players show things that can inflate their value or reduce their value, but that doesn't really change what their value was at the time of the draft. Their value at the time of the draft is what the market will bear at that time.

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Not sure how he'll be in the NFL, but in college in 2019, he was really, really good.  He also has a ton of experience and reps.

https://www.vikings.com/news/blake-brandel-5-things-to-know

 

Quote

Analytics site Pro Football Focus issued a grade of 93.1 for Brandel's pass blocking last season, which was the best in the nation after he was judged to have allowed just one sack and four quarterback hurries. PFF graded Brandel at 90 overall and 82.5 in run blocking.

Quote

After redshirting in 2015, Brandel started the first three games of 2016 at left tackle before opening the final nine at right tackle. He closed his college career by opening his final 36 games at left tackle.

Brandel's 48 starts are tied for the third-most in school history, and only two Beavers players opened more games in a row (Roy Schuening, 50 games from 2004-07 and Richard Seigler, 49 from 2000-03).

 

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Edited one of Blake Brandel’s games from last year. 

Looks really good. Have to wonder how well his game will translate to the NFL and if he’ll stay at tackle or more energy to guard, but he does a lot of things right here. I think he’s got a high floor, should at least be a Dozier or Hill quality backup.

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