Cam questions

[Hunter2_1]

Hi guys,

First of all, from a Pats fan, Newton was always one of the few players that absolutely ruined us. There can't be many players with a 100% record against us, and his passer rating of 128 is absurd when you consider what we generally do to QBs. But anyway, my question is basically - which Cam do you think we are getting? And how was he looking before latest injury setback?

We think (hope) we are getting 2018 pre-injury Cam. How was he looking at that point? I can't remember, but stats show he was back close to his best. I don't expect anything like 2015 Cam. Thx.

[Mr. bDoDDleS]

2018 pre-injury Cam was what older Cam would have looked like. Still, a threat rushing but under Norv had better competition percentage and was overall a much better passer than he showed in any year minus 2015. He was taking the next step of his career as a QB from where he was before Norv and all the hits he took started taking their toll. 

Overall, I think Cam can still be really good if used correctly. TBH at this point though teams would be just let Cam be Cam and not try and "save him". Who knows how long that will last though. 

[iknowcool]

I think he can still be a good quarterback.  Maybe my favorite player ever, so I'm definitely rooting for him.  And he's going to work hard as he always has.  His accuracy isn't the best (obv), but he gets too much criticism for his career CMP%.  Any QB that wasn't along the lines of the Rodgers' and Brees' of the world would have been inefficient in Shula's offense.

But staying healthy?  I'm not sure about that.  2018 and 2019 aren't the only times injuries have affected his play.  Newton went through a lot in 2016 too.  2017 is the only year since his MVP season where he's managed to stay reasonably healthy.  Patriots #1 priority should be keeping him upright.  If they can keep the pocket clean, Newton can do work.  But I don't think he can take the hits like he could in the past.  

[Hunter2_1]

@Mr. bDoDDleS @iknowcool Thanks. So why was the cmp% down in 15 compared to 18, was it literally just through system? I don't recall CAR ever having top 15 level weapons and OL...but perhaps I'm wrong there. We THINK with NE it might be his best OL to date, but again, could be wrong (not that ours is spectacular). Josh will surely draw up plenty of quick passing for him. We've always protected TB efficiently enough, but he was always good at throwing it away, so we'll hope and see. 

Looks like 18 would have been a vintage year for Cam had it not been Watt using his helmet as a bettering ram.

[iknowcool]

2 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

@Mr. bDoDDleS @iknowcool Thanks. So why was the cmp% down in 15 compared to 18, was it literally just through system?

We weren't running a "modern" passing scheme, that is unlike the majority of teams, we were over-reliant on downfield passing.  It's why our offense, despite finishing #1 in scoring that year, was very boom-or-bust.  You could go watch a lot of our games that season, the ones where we would march out to a huge lead and squander it (the games against the Giants and Colts, and the Seahawks playoff game are good examples) and see how we had a tendency to go long lulls without moving the ball well.  The passing scheme was never meant to be efficient.  It was meant shoot off big plays.

Not to say Newton is completely free from blame.  He definitely wasn't one of the most accurate QBs, but I don't think he was any less accurate than say, Eli Manning, who from 2008 on-wards was consistently at about 61 or 62%.  That isn't all that great either, but not nearly as bad (on paper) as the sub-60% Newton had.  And the WRs played a role too.  The years where Kelvin Benjamin was our #1 were hard to watch.  He wasn't an outside WR.

I think CMP% is pretty meaningless.  IMO it is more of a reflection of scheme than it is QB (for the most part - a guy like Brees would have a high CMP% no matter where he played, but that is why he's a HOFer).  I always kind of figured that, but it became even clearer to me in 2018 when Newton had a 67.9% despite clearly being a shell of himself after the Pitts game.  Hell even before that, his arm wasn't what it was, but the scheme was so much better under Norv than under Shula that it made up for it.  Norv Turner in 2018 was such a positive change, it makes it even more frustrating that Shula wasn't canned sooner.  Everyone always thought Panthers fans were just trying to make excuses for Newton, and maybe that was true, but Shula really was a terrible offensive coordinator.  

I wouldn't be worried about that with Newton.  My biggest worry would be if he can still move the ball downfield and do it well.  I'm not sure that he can, but I hope he proves me wrong.  Nobody really knows what his arm is like anymore. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by iknowcool