That's Two Thus Far, Shooter

[Raidersfan1]

BAD.... BAD... BAMA

When I watch Najee Harris the first problem I have is the academy and the beating they give each other on their way to the league. I get it. Opportunity is a knocking. Good for the kids. Good for Saban. Bad for NFL and the league. Bama has been the most disappointing school year in and year out with the number of guys they send to the league and the output they get for all that talent. 

 

COMPETITION AND DEPRECIATION

One reason to (almost) always stay away from Bama is the depreciation factor. But an underrated element is how disappointing Bama backs are once they get to the league. The Leatherwood factor. Size and strength win the young man's game. Those guys become the guys they dominated in college once they reach the bigger fish bowl and the playing field of your teammates to opponents is level, which puts more accountability on you. No more coasting, Clemson with nice teammates.

Another problem here is the decreasing yards per carry over the four years in conjunction with not beating out Josh Jacobs and Damien Harris. These are NFL competent backs. Sure. But they weren't one of the highest ranked RBs coming out of High School. 

Also, I don't want 22 year old RBs starting their career at 25.  Henry somehow made it. IYRC, he was OK his first two seasons until he Lev Belled and lost some weight. Picked up some acceleration. Unfortunately, Benny didn't get the message in time.

 

FOOT BOY

And that brings us to the foot of the issue. Is it the foot or the line? It's not both. Because we have two participants. Warren averaged 4.9 YPC with a considerably lighter load (70 attempts) to Harris 3.9 YPC on 280 carries. Warren would need to average zero yards on his next 17 carries to equal that 3.9 YPC.

Struggling with sample size as a major factor here.

 

INTERESTING STAT

Najee Harris yards per target 4.3 yards to Jaylen Warren 6.5 yards per target. Yards per target would be good to determine explosion bc it's the sum of the good and the bad. The one yard Switzy counts. Switzy. 3 recs. 15 yards. Solid. Point being that one yarder needs a first down on the next one to maintain that average. Apparently, this happens. Warren with only one catch less a game nearly gets 50% more yards every time he touches the ball. 

Across all situations.

 

Najee Harris 4.0 yards per touch to Jaylen Warren 5.6 yards per touch. Receptions weighing heavy here as the 50% is nearly maintained across all scrimmage yards.

 

Conclusion: It is reasonable to believe Najee Harris has peaked as a NFL football player and now is his highest trade value. The Najee Harris YPC in college was a decreasing trend over the four years is troubling with the injury history and lackluster start to his NFL career. Does it suddenly get better? Exponentially. To five yards per. I think not. There is reasonable debate to start with an even workload given where Harris and Warren are in their careers. Allow the winner to take the lion's share.

 

If you draft a guy in the first round and after two years, he's being outperformed by an undrafted player, is that not a bad draft pick? Is it not next man up? Should he not be on the chopping block? Is accountability an issue? Yes. 

I wouldn't cut him, bc it's fiscally irresponsible and stupid. But if I can get somin for him in the top 65-75 picks and turn that pick into a starter and have Warren start.

That's Two Thus Far, Shooter.

 

[3rivers]

Najee had an injury issue for about half the season. He was much different the last 6 games, totally different player.  I like the 1-2 punch , and hope the FO can keep them here for a while

24 minutes ago, Raidersfan1 said:

If you draft a guy in the first round and after two years, he's being outperformed by an undrafted player, is that not a bad draft pick?

maybe the UDFA is a great find and the RD1 pick has injury issues. I still think Warren suited this OL more early on, but as the OL got better, Najee gained momentum and all was good. 

If however this season Najee is healthy and still looks as he did early last year, then I can see critics getting ready to deal or start rumours.   The last Ravens game is what I expect more of though, solid game, great catch/ awareness for the TD as well

The part about RB's is that they depend on the OL a lot and might be better in certain situations than others.  I  hope the OL gets much better and it won't matter as much who is in there. There is a point where once the OL is 'good enough' then either RB will be productive enough.   Weidl will get the OL better or so they say. 

 

[43M]

Najee is the perfect example of why you should pretty much never draft a RB in rd 1.   His success is very dependent on the OL in front of him.   Not necessarily a knock on him since thats the case for the vast majority of RBs except for truly special ones....but thats my point.   Najee was not a truly special RB coming out, and while we needed a RB, it couldve and shouldve waited until rd 2 or 3...especially given the state our OL was in going into the 21 draft.

All that being said, if our OL keeps getting better and Najee stays healthy, I see no need to get rid of him.   He looked much better after the bye.  I like Warren alot, but he had a fraction of the touches Najee did, was healthy all year and brings a different pace than Najee.   Flip the roles and I don't think Warren would be as successful.

Bottom line...the running game WITH Najee was really cliicking at the end.  I would slightly increase Warren's touches, but I want to see our run game in 23 with BOTH of them.

[3rivers]

7 minutes ago, 43M said:

Najee is the perfect example of why you should pretty much never draft a RB in rd 1.   His success is very dependent on the OL in front of him.   Not necessarily a knock on him since thats the case for the vast majority of RBs except for truly special ones....but thats my point.   Najee was not a truly special RB coming out, and while we needed a RB, it couldve and shouldve waited until rd 2 or 3...especially given the state our OL was in going into the 21 draft.

All that being said, if our OL keeps getting better and Najee stays healthy, I see no need to get rid of him.   He looked much better after the bye.  I like Warren alot, but he had a fraction of the touches Najee did, was healthy all year and brings a different pace than Najee.   Flip the roles and I don't think Warren would be as successful.

Bottom line...the running game WITH Najee was really cliicking at the end.  I would slightly increase Warren's touches, but I want to see our run game in 23 with BOTH of them.

so was colbert the one that really pushed to draft Najee and or in RD1 ?  Agree it's not the worst or even a bad pick, but far from typical of championship teams in that RD1 RB value.  Agree about the state of the OL as well. This should all be in place before a RD1 RB is added and of course QB1 too.  Teams like the Bears have no team around their franchise QB while he is on the rookie deal and then by the time they have something decent around him it's too late. Or of course the QB could also end up like Luck and retire early due to injuries. 

Maybe if Muchak returns in some capaity he willI like Cbrunn's idea of OG  Risner in UFA, that will address the weak link on the OL and he is a top tier run blocker so that will help Najee and Warren . McFarlane looked good in limited snaps, so we could be set at RB for a while. If Colbert found Warren, thats another quality addition from the 22 class which looks to be good overall. Can't win em all and make everyone happy all the time when it involves fans but the 22 class was a good one

With Weidle here, it has been said he wants to build the trenches. Imagine having the trenches built with proven vets first, then bring in the rookie QB in RD1 and RB1 in RD2. Or maybe get the RB at the end of RD1 as well in a trade for the 5th year option as well. Either way, if the OL is in place, it's the best way to control a game and allows every weapon  on offence to have their best chance, unless they can't catch of course. 

 

[Raidersfan1]

6 hours ago, 43M said:

Najee is the perfect example of why you should pretty much never draft a RB in rd 1.   His success is very dependent on the OL in front of him.   Not necessarily a knock on him since thats the case for the vast majority of RBs except for truly special ones....but thats my point.   Najee was not a truly special RB coming out, and while we needed a RB, it couldve and shouldve waited until rd 2 or 3...especially given the state our OL was in going into the 21 draft.

All that being said, if our OL keeps getting better and Najee stays healthy, I see no need to get rid of him.   He looked much better after the bye.  I like Warren alot, but he had a fraction of the touches Najee did, was healthy all year and brings a different pace than Najee.   Flip the roles and I don't think Warren would be as successful.

Bottom line...the running game WITH Najee was really cliicking at the end.  I would slightly increase Warren's touches, but I want to see our run game in 23 with BOTH of them.

He had four good games all year. (BAL, ATL, CIN, NO). Hey, hey, hey three of them came in the last eight. Well, five of those teams will be picking TOP 12.

I don't want running backs with broken feet. 

Warren is more of a change of pace guy. Or MJD. Whichever you prefer. I like MJD. Hence, 5.0 YPC

 

 

[Raidersfan1]

17 hours ago, 3rivers said:

Najee had an injury issue for about half the season. He was much different the last 6 games, totally different player.  I like the 1-2 punch , and hope the FO can keep them here for a while

maybe the UDFA is a great find and the RD1 pick has injury issues. I still think Warren suited this OL more early on, but as the OL got better, Najee gained momentum and all was good. 

If however this season Najee is healthy and still looks as he did early last year, then I can see critics getting ready to deal or start rumours.   The last Ravens game is what I expect more of though, solid game, great catch/ awareness for the TD as well

The part about RB's is that they depend on the OL a lot and might be better in certain situations than others.  I  hope the OL gets much better and it won't matter as much who is in there. There is a point where once the OL is 'good enough' then either RB will be productive enough.   Weidl will get the OL better or so they say. 

 

An undrafted guy and first round pick should not be competing. Outside of some incessant nagging. Good for Warren. He's the first round pick in the end. 

 

And the excel spreadsheet comes in with.........

Najee Harris FIRST 9 GAMES: 3.84 YPC

Najee Harris LAST 8 GAMES: 3.98 YPC

 

Some second half surge. Huh?

[3rivers]

I thought Najee would have had a higher ypc in the 2nd half. 

what was Warren's ypc 2nd half?

The other part about Warrens game is  his blocking as well as pass catching is really good. Both RB's are versatile, and different.  Good RB situation right now, probably won't draft or UFA sign a RB, no need to unless injury happens before the draft and UFA

[Raidersfan1]

26 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

I thought Najee would have had a higher ypc in the 2nd half. 

what was Warren's ypc 2nd half?

The other part about Warrens game is  his blocking as well as pass catching is really good. Both RB's are versatile, and different.  Good RB situation right now, probably won't draft or UFA sign a RB, no need to unless injury happens before the draft and UFA

You perceive this because it is what you were supposed to perceive. 

 

Papa Gottron on the excel spreadsheet.....

Jaylen Warren FIRST 9 GAMES: 5.0 YPC

Jaylen Warren LAST 8 GAMES: 4.84 YPC

 

That's just the thing. If you wait ONE MORE YEAR on Harris, it's too late. If you wait ONE MORE YEAR on DJ, it's too late. Kenny can't get him the ball. His value is a sinking ship. Highsmith you can get away with it more because his value is hot right now. Highsmith might just be one of the best available (ufa/draft/trade) pass rushers in the game today? The Steelers problem is Najee will hover around that 3.7 YPC and Kenny Pickett doesn't exactly scare me. I stack the box and cover the short to intermediate passing game all-in-one. All my players are right there. I dare you to throw. No, no. I dare you to run. NO, NO. I just dare and send out the punt return team.

And that's my thing. Jaylen Warren can do all of the things you want to spell the gaps of the starting running back. As 43 says, you ruin him if you make him a starter, and I tend to mostly agree. 

 

OK, OK, OK. So we have starting RB problems and we have OL problems. 

 

Bijan Robinson #5 - TEXAS

[3rivers]

Robinson is special and with my OL could be a major force and restore Steelers football  and make life easy for KP and company

 

Sign UFA Dillard and Risner 

Now Robinson on a rookie deal with that OL. Where is Robinson expected to get drafted?

Not sure where Robinson goes, but I doubt he lasts to 32 and  LT  Jones can't be drafted as well, hence the Dillard signing.  With Wagner costing too much , might as well make the OL a force all at once.