Incog's Trade Value Chart

[incognito_man]

Inspired by @beekay414, I set off this evening to construct a trade value chart to mimic reality. So, I thought "what better way to determine a player's value than their career earnings" and then "what better way to compare a player to his peers than their career earnings?" It accounts naturally for real-life positional comparison (and thus, a worthy mapping for a draft class).

Methodology:

(1) Normalize the top "x" number of career earners for each draft class. I wanted to see each draft class individually compared to itself. I assigned a value of 1000 to the top earner. The second highest earner would then get a value proportional to their career earnings compared to the top guy. If he earned 75% as much, he would get 750. I repeated this process for the data I had (roughly 60-80 guys per class). 

(2) Plot the data and the median value of each slot to find a trendline. It turns out, a logarithmic curve through the first 3 rounds is a really damn good fit (R^2 of 0.995). It's a much better representation than exponential.

(3) Use the trendline equation to set a baseline model.

(4) Examine the range from across the classes. For example, the highest #2 earner recently is Dak Prescott earning 95.1% as much as highest earner Jared Goff from 2016. The lowest #2 earner is Clay Matthews III earning 31.4% as much as highest earner from 2009 Matthew Stafford. Thus the "Number Two Pick" has a range from 314 to 951 'points'. With the lower values representing a top-heavy (shallow) earners pool and higher values representing a more concentrated, less top-heavy earners class.

Here's the 3-round TVC the numbers worked out to be using data from the 2006-2016 draft classes (grey = trendline based on median values, red = lowest relative earner, green = highest relative earner):

Round 1				Round 2				Round 3
Pick	Points	-STDEV	+STDEV	Pick	Points	-STDEV	+STDEV	Pick	Points	-STDEV	+STDEV
1	1000	1000	1000	33	279	185	342	65	138	83	174
2	865	683	987	34	273	180	335	66	134	78	172
3	780	560	927	35	267	174	329	67	131	75	168
4	720	510	860	36	261	170	322	68	128	74	164
5	674	487	798	37	255	164	316	69	125	72	160
6	636	453	757	38	250	161	309	70	122	70	157
7	603	427	721	39	244	156	303	71	119	69	152
8	575	399	693	40	239	152	297	72	116	67	149
9	551	385	662	41	234	147	292	73	113	64	146
10	529	372	633	42	229	144	286	74	110	63	142
11	509	349	616	43	224	142	279	75	108	73	131
12	491	331	597	44	219	138	273	76	105	70	128
13	474	320	576	45	214	144	262	77	102	67	126
14	458	311	557	46	210	139	257	78	99	61	125
15	444	301	540	47	205	137	251	79	97	58	123
16	431	291	524	48	201	133	246	80	94	57	119
17	418	284	507	49	197	131	240	81	92	53	117
18	406	273	494	50	192	126	236	82	89	50	115
19	395	263	482	51	188	123	232	83	86	48	112
20	384	255	470	52	184	119	228	84	84	45	110
21	374	249	457	53	180	116	223	85	81	42	108
22	364	239	447	54	176	112	219	86	79	33	110
23	355	235	435	55	172	109	215	87	77	37	118
24	346	227	425	56	169	108	209	88	74	39	98
25	337	218	417	57	165	105	205	89	72	37	95
26	329	216	404	58	161	102	201	90	70	35	93
27	321	210	395	59	158	99	197	91	67	32	91
28	314	204	387	60	154	97	193	92	65	30	88
29	306	202	376	61	151	94	189	93	63	28	86
30	299	196	368	62	147	92	184	94	60	25	84
31	292	193	358	63	144	89	180	95	58	23	82
32	286	190	349	64	141	86	177	96	56	21	79

So, depending on the class, Picks 42 and 43 can be worth anywhere from pick 9 (deep class) to pick 27 (shallow class).

Admittedly, this is a wider range than I expected. Another way to judge depth is to see what the first sequential earners whose sum equals the top earners is. For example, the 2015 draft class top earner is Amari Cooper at $119 million. #27 (Eric Kendricks) and #28 (Mitch Morse) have earned a combined $120 million (thus suggesting picks 27 and 28 were of equivalent value as pick #1 in 2015). On the other extreme, 2009's top earner is Matthew Stafford at $420 million. The next top 2 earners (Clay Matthews, Alex Mack) and #42 earner Josh Freeman  combined to earn $421 million, thus suggesting the 2009 top pick was worth picks 2, 3 and 42 combined. Every other class fell between these two extremes.

Graphically:

 

Edited March 23, 2023 by incognito_man

[Mox]

This is pretty cool. I enjoy the work you put into this.

[beekay414]

Yes, something like this is exactly what we need as outsiders that can't get an inside look at team's big boards. Allows us to build our own, place our own grades on guys and then determine what the the TVC should look like on a yearly basis. Much more functional than just placing one concrete value on a pick and determining whether a team overpaid or underpaid in an all draft pick trade. 

[incognito_man]

15 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Yes, something like this is exactly what we need as outsiders that can't get an inside look at team's big boards. Allows us to build our own, place our own grades on guys and then determine what the the TVC should look like on a yearly basis. Much more functional than just placing one concrete value on a pick and determining whether a team overpaid or underpaid in an all draft pick trade. 

know of any reputable and consistent draft grade databases I could pull pre-draft grades from for each class to see how the distribution aligns w/ the monetary results of that class?

[beekay414]

3 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

know of any reputable and consistent draft grade databases I could pull pre-draft grades from for each class to see how the distribution aligns w/ the monetary results of that class?

I do not, unfortunately. I know that NFL.com has grades on their guys but most other sites don't place values or haven't been around long enough to be able to input the data for a strong enough SS. Best you can do is probably find a site's big board and input it based on where those guys were eventually drafted and see how the value turned out? I dunno. I'm like Steve Jobs here. I just think of **** with no idea how to apply it in reality lmao.