warfelg Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Here we go - last one going here of draft season. So this partially comes from learning from past feed back, and partially coming from some new ideas. Going through here, I used a sim and looked at a few mocks to just get a good feel for who's available where. But, the picks, trades, and decisions were made purely by me, not based on what I got in the sim. ROUND 1 - I'm starting off with a bang and doing something no one is going to like. I'm making a trade very early off the bat. Pitt Sends Diontae Johnson Pick 17 Pick 49 Hou Sends Pick 12 Pick 65 Pick 188 2024 2nd 2024 5th (conditional 4th based on 1200+ yards, 4+ TDs) On pure pick value of 2023 picks I end up breaking just about even. That means I end up valuing Johnson as a 2nd and 4th in 2024 with the pick being conditional for performance. I know this will not be popular, but essentially DJ is here one more year. As of right now Allen Robinson is effectively a 1 year rental. Gunner Olszewski is on the last year of his deal. Myles Boykin is back on a 1 year deal but he's more of a core ST player. That really leaves George Pickens and Calvin Austin as our long term development players at WR. Picking up an extra pick in this draft affords me the ability to be more aggressive an adding a player at the position early, especially since Austin is an unknown at this point. ROUND 1 PICK 12 - STEELERS SELECT - BRODERICK JONES OT GEORGIA I feel this is where Weidl's team building philosophy is going to come in. He's seen in his time at Philadelphia that subpar QB play can get you a lot if you have a strong line that can protect the QB and allow for a high success rate in running the ball. Mind you this doesn't mean you run it a lot, rather then you do run it, you get more than the expected yardage. Jones has a lot to work on in terms of pass protection, but he's got what you want in the position. In the run game he can plug and play from day one. Moreso - he's in a position that if he wins the competition you have guys you might be able to move. Maybe you keep Clark, but if an LT goes down in camp (they always do) you can get something unexpected for Moore if Jones is playing well. Maybe if Jones can slide to RT for year 1, Chucks becomes your trade bait for a team that maybe wants to see Chucks at LT. The absolute worst case for Jones is he doesn't work at LT or RT but makes a really good guard. Those are all things I'm willing to take. And if Jones doesn't win the battle for one of the starting spots in camp (he should), he can come in and report as an elidable player and use that run blocking mentality to help out there. My completely totally perfectly inaccurate NFL comp - Tyler Lewan OT Formally Titans ROUND 2 - I was aggressive in moving up in round 1 with that trade. I feel like I need to make a second move in day 2. Heck Tomlin and Khan have basically put a "for sale" sign on pick 32. So lets see what's going on. Despite all the talk of him being there higher in the draft, we get to the start of Day 2 and Hendon Hooker is still out there. Seattle opted to not take a QB in RD 1 of this mock, but it's only a 5 spot drop and might not net us a big haul. I have Tennessee looking to shore up either CB or OT early with Witherspoon or Johnson as they might not move on from Tannehill. Trading with them is only a 9 slot drop and splits the difference between our two original 2nds. Pitt Sends Pick 32 2024 4th Seattle Sends Pick 37 Pick 123 Pick 151 Pick 154 Pick 198 The cost is close enough. I throw in the premium of those picks (198, 123 being swapped for a 2024 of the same round which is usually a downgrade) because of the position they are picking. They are taking Hooker with this pick. I'm sure plenty of teams would overpay at this point for the QB they want at the start of day two. For me, adding the value of the picks in this years draft is really important. And the loss of the 4th isn't a big deal for me because I count on DJ performing for the Texans and replacing that 4th for me. ROUND 2 PICK 37 - STEELERS SELECT - EMMANUEL FORBES CB MISS ST This is the sweet spot for Forbes IMO. His playing weight isn't going to be that big of a deal, but compared to the top 3 he's very slight, and then we may see Banks and possibly Cam Smith go before him because teams take Forbes off their board. I think in year 1, you can flip flop Forbes and Maulet in the NCB role based on what you need like you did with Sutton and Hilton in the past. Maulet is your run down nickel, and Forbes is your coverage. Through the year you can also throw Forbes outside on downs when you want to feel good about the coverage and slide Peterson into the slot. While I think it's not a 1-for-1 comparison of Forbes to Peterson, I think Peterson can serve as a great mentor for Forbes in how to play angles and leverage so he can 'get away' with his lack of size. My completely totally perfectly inaccurate NFL comp - Tariq Woolen CB Seattle ROUND 3 Because of earlier deal I have 2 3rd round picks rather than 2 2nds. I like this sweet spot of the draft. I entertained moving up to get Jonathan Mingo, but I decided it's just not worth it. I know I have WR needs now with DJ traded out, but I'm not super excited about giving up my depth now with these core of the draft picks. But I may still be on that mindset though of helping our offense, just maybe not the way you may think this early. ROUND 3 PICK 65 - STEELERS SELECT - DARNELL WASHINGTON TE GEORGIA You may be thinking to yourself that there's no way he makes it all the way down here, but teams are worried about the medical and he's not the best pure pass catcher. I think though what he's good at is what we want, a good physical POA run blocker who offers ability to do more. We've talked ad nausium about Washington so there's not a whole lot more here to talk about My completely totally perfectly inaccurate NFL comp - Noah Fant TE Seattle ROUND 3 I'm on the clock again with our natural pick at 80. And this position brings about a lot of really good questions - how long do you wait to double dip? My answer - a little while longer. There's some bigger fish to fry right now. While I feel like I would miss out on a better player by doing this (primarily DL) I'm going to go with my WR here. ROUND 3 PICK 80 - STEELERS SELECT - AT PERRY WR GEORGIA TECH This guy touches every box in RAS score and at 6'3" as well. I would love to go up and get Mingo, but I think Perry needs some seasoning and could be just as good. Having a top 3 rotation of Austin, Pickens, Robinson with some Perry sprinkled in for some deep passes right now would be a good development curve. Additionally I think Robinson would be a good mentor for a guy like Perry. I don't love the idea of going with so many offensive players early but they fill needs. My completely totally perfectly inaccurate NFL comp - Courtland Sutton WR Denver ROUND 4 My picks in round 4 are really close together and I would kind of like them to be spread out a little more. And to do that I think moving up from 120 would provide better value than going down from 123. For example to move from 120 to 107 is a cost of 27 points. That's not a significant jump to have to make. That's pick 154. So the value is worth it. Pitt Sends Pick 120 Pick 154 NE Sends Pick 107 Pick 2024 7th ROUND 4 PICK 107 - STEELERS SELECT - KARL BROOKS DL BOWLING GREEN Brooks is made to be a Steeler. His tape reminds me so much of Cam Heyward coming out of OSU. I don't think we need to go top line with our DL on this draft, and getting a high upside developmental DL player like Brooks is a better move than trying to use a higher pick for a guy who won't get much time in year 1. Additionally there's a lot of different styles (Cam being inside out, Feheko being run stuffer, Watts being pass rusher) for Brooks to learn from and integrate into his own game. My completely totally perfectly inaccurate NFL comp - Ed Oliver DL Buffalo ROUND 4 PICK 123 - STEELERS SELECT - DEMARVION OVERSHOWN LB TEXAS This may seem high for DeMarvion, but, he's a guy I really like. He may seem undersized at 6'2" 230, but when you put on the tape you don't see someone playing small. This would also put him at almost the same playing weight at Shazier. He's going to have time to develop more but his athleticism and energy should get him on the field some in year 1. Long term though I think he can be a Shazier-Like player. My completely totally perfectly inaccurate NFL comp - Germaine Pratt LB Cincinnati ROUND 5 PICK 151 - STEELERS SELECT - KEI'TREL CLARK CB LOUISVILLE I see Clark as a long term NCB replacement. He should see the field sparingly as a rookie, but long term he can thrive in there. He's not the biggest or best long speed guys but his short burst and hip mobility is awesome. My completely totally perfectly inaccurate NFL comp - Bryce Callahan CB Formerly Broncos ROUND 6 PICK 188 - STEELERS SELECT - ANDREW VORHEES OG USC I can see this guy sliding and us taking him and IR'ing him here. He doesn't need to play this year. Could end up being a backup along with Herbig next year. Then slide into the starting lineup when needed. But this guy has such great upside. My completely totally perfectly inaccurate NFL comp - Ramon Foster OG Formerly Steelers ROUND 6 PICK 198 - STEELERS SELECT - NICK HERBIG EDGE WISCONSIN He's definitely not going as high as some mocks have showed for us. But I can see us leaning on the brother connection. He's a guy who can be a solid 3rd guy in a rotation who will likely never threaten to be a starter. My completely totally perfectly inaccurate NFL comp - Jamie Collins EDGE/LB Patriots ROUND 7 PICK 241 - STEELERS SELECT - STENSON BENNETT QB GEORGIA Just a good processing QB who reminds me some of Brock Purdy as a prospect. Could that get him drafted too high? Maybe. But I wouldn't count on it. He's likely a career backup/3rd QB on rosters with a future in coaching, but it's a good thing to bring him in for now. My completely totally perfectly inaccurate NFL comp - Baker Mayfield QB Tampa Bay ROUND 7 PICK PICK 251 - STEELERS SELECT - DANIEL SCOTT S CAL Scott is a versatile DB who can do a little bit of it all. While I don't love our S situation, it also doesn't need a starter right now and I think Scott can be that nice developmental player. A nice bonus I feel with him is that he's going to be a stud ST player in 2-3 years. My completely totally perfectly inaccurate NFL comp - Miles Killabrew S Steelers So there you have it. That's my final official mock draft. What I like about where we are is we don't need to take anyone at any one position. But we need to fill out the depth of the team and that's what I put out there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rivers Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 great idea trading. My Herbig mocks have him going much earlier, but lets hope we draft him either way. Scott too, usually earlier, but we never know. I saw a mocvk on nfl.com and it had Center Oli going near the end and Turner later RD2 , so who knows. 27 minutes ago, warfelg said: So there you have it. That's my final official mock draft. What I like about where we are is we don't need to take anyone at any one position. But we need to fill out the depth of the team and that's what I put out there. really hope Khan does this. Trading down a few times has given such better mocks for the team overall. I have had some with 12+ players, that might be excessive, and tiring even for me at my leisure so imagine them on the phone and on the clock. It's a deep draft at some positions so why not take advantage of these positions that also happen to be positions of need. What better draft for this team, and look, we can trade down the claypool pick to start it all off . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted April 26, 2023 Author Share Posted April 26, 2023 20 hours ago, 3rivers said: really hope Khan does this. Trading down a few times has given such better mocks for the team overall. I have had some with 12+ players, that might be excessive, and tiring even for me at my leisure so imagine them on the phone and on the clock. It's a deep draft at some positions so why not take advantage of these positions that also happen to be positions of need. What better draft for this team, and look, we can trade down the claypool pick to start it all off . So here's the thing with this draft: You either have to be really aggressive in moving up or get out of the end of the first round. There's no middle ground. So the cost of moving up being what it was, it's a shot you take for one of the top OL IMO. I think there's a real smoke screen going on with the OT's and CB's at the moment and I don't think that it's us that's throwing it out there. I think is someone later down like Baltimore or Cincinnati throwing stuff out there to make it easier for them to jump up by getting someone (JPJ, Jones) to drop into an easier to draft position. So I wanted to be aggressive to go get the tackle that I liked out there. But then in a way I wanted to 'passive play' the 32nd pick so I could try to recoup some of what I lost with the move up. In the end I'm trying to do what I could to end up with as many picks in the 2nd-4th rounds because the meat of this draft is your "quality average starter" group that's in there. If you look at what I drafted that's what you see. Do Washington, Perry, Brooks, Overshown, Clark possess the All-Pro upside? Not likely, with Brooks being the biggest potential. But they all seem like the type of starters that when you put them around the superstars they fill roles that open things up. Washington isn't going to be Gronk at TE by any means, but if he blocks hard, provides a red zone threat, and gives Kenny an outlet it's a win. Perry may never be a stud WR but he has high WR2 upside who can get deep and open up Pickens from getting doubles and allows Austin to use short are burst well. Brooks can become Heyward//Tuitt like, but even a Brett Keisel like guy with TJ and Alex is a win. And so on and so forth. Then you look at what came out of rounds 6 and 7 and these are guys who have the ability to be a decent backup for a long time. They will never push for starter roles, but that's completely OK with me if they don't. They just have the ability to give you spot starts and impact snaps if used right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rivers Posted April 26, 2023 Share Posted April 26, 2023 the smoke exists, probably from many sources. No idea how this shakes out, but we will find out in a few days. If the OT of interest is gone before your trading spot, what about trading down a few times in the first to get the additional Rd3 and Rd3 or 4 picks yet still remain in RD1. With the giants interested in Turner, to get him make sure to be ahead of the giants if thats the case. On mocks where I traded down a few times, a nice collection of good players can be had. With some additional trading, we can shape the draft how we want it and get all the players we would really want for each position . We already lack picks and trading up makes it less, so the as a result the 32 pick and trading down makes sense regardless since the offers will be in abundance being he 1st pick day 2. still hope they trade mitch, dotson, and if they trade Dionte, they better get a good pick and replacement but the replacement could be RD2,3 or even 4. Dionte isn't a fan favourite but he gets open anyways and has been available. I wouldn't rely on Ausitn (injury), Miller (injury) or A-Rob (injury). The recent injury history at WR on the roster is a reason to get a WR somewhere no matter what. The A-Rob signing might have been so they could focus on other areas in the draft early, same with IOL and ILB, as UFA took care of this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ward4HOF Posted April 26, 2023 Share Posted April 26, 2023 (edited) I would love this Mock; you are getting steals throughout! - Forbes could be gone by pick 30 - Washington could be gone by pick 45 - Herbig could be gone by pick 75 - Karl Brooks has gotten a lot of attention lately, and think he could be gone by 90 - Daniel Scott could be gone by the end of the 5th - Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone take a flyer on Bennett in the 6th Don't take what I am saying as being that these couldn't happen; I think only Herbig, would be considered a "pipe dream"; he most assuredly will be gone NLT than the 4th. The rest of them could happen...Forbes is really skinny, and he might be off a few boards; the TE class is uber deep, and any of those guys could faall down way further than they should. Brooks might just be a faux 'rise up the boards'; it's possible he's taken when he was originally thought to go...in the 4th/5th. Scott has also seen a lot of 'media' interest as of late, but he, too, was originally, a later round prospect, and might still be. And Bennett, well, I wouldn;t be surprised to see him be a 5th/6th Rd guy, but he could easily be a UDFA...who knows? Anyway, I like the draft as it's laid out, and would be fine with a small trade up in the 1st, so long as it doesn;t cost us much in this years draft... Edited April 26, 2023 by Ward4HOF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rivers Posted April 26, 2023 Share Posted April 26, 2023 24 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said: I would love this Mock; you are getting steals throughout! - Forbes could be gone by pick 30 - Washington could be gone by pick 45 - Herbig could be gone by pick 75 - Karl Brooks has gotten a lot of attention lately, and think he could be gone by 90 - Daniel Scott could be gone by the end of the 5th - Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone take a flyer on Bennett in the 6th Don't take what I am saying as being that these couldn't happen; I think only Herbig, would be considered a "pipe dream"; he most assuredly will be gone NLT than the 4th. The rest of them could happen...Forbes is really skinny, and he might be off a few boards; the TE class is uber deep, and any of those guys could faall down way further than they should. Brooks might just be a faux 'rise up the boards'; it's possible he's taken when he was originally thought to go...in the 4th/5th. Scott has also seen a lot of 'media' interest as of late, but he, too, was originally, a later round prospect, and might still be. And Bennett, well, I wouldn;t be surprised to see him be a 5th/6th Rd guy, but he could easily be a UDFA...who knows? Anyway, I like the draft as it's laid out, and would be fine with a small trade up in the 1st, so long as it doesn;t cost us much in this years draft... CB Bennett keeps getting taken before I can draft him in mid rounds, same with Hodges-Tomlinson, usually gone but then. So, trading down can help to get these picks but even then, seems like they can be gone. I like both for the slot, scrappy and will run and hit and catch the INT when it's near. Plus their QB rating allowed was some of the lowest . I wouldn't be surprised if we draft Herbig a bit earlier than mocks. Trading down for this pick makes sense. Him and Young for Edge depth have value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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