Era Adjusted Passing: The Proper Way to Compare QBs

[HerbertGOAT]

QB play and the way it has changed over time, along with offenses has provided much debate and discussion. No aspect of this sport has changed more over time than the passing game, and has made comparing QBs across eras difficult, complicated, nuanced, and not anywhere near an exact science. Terry Bradshaw, NFL MVP and 4x SB champion has a lower career passer rating than Zach Wilson. Kirk Cousins has a higher passer rating than Joe Montana, Daniel Jones has the same completion % as Steve Young... You get the point.

 

So how do we remedy this?

 

Pro Football Reference has a feature that has intrigued me for a long time: Adjusted passing statistics. Simply put, these stats take a QBs per pass statistics (TD%, INT%, Y/A, Passer Rating, etc.) and scale them according to their stature with the rest of the league. These stats are noted with a + at the end of them (e.g. TD%+ for Adjusted TD%, Rate+ for adjusted Passer Rating).

The scale is such that the league average is always 100. The addition or subtraction represents how much better or worse a QB is in a given stat compared to the rest of the league (e.g. if the league average TD% is 5%, QB A has a TD% of 5.5%, and QB B has a TD% of 4.5%, QB A has a 110 TD%+, while QB B has a 90 TD%+.

115 is considered 1 standard deviation above average, while 85 is considered 1 standard deviation below average. 115 and above in a statistic for a season, you're very, very good. 130 and above, you're an MVP candidate. 145 and above, we're talking era-relative all-time great seasons in whichever statistic the QB has the rating in.

ANY/A is the abbreviation for Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. This stat takes your regular yards, adds 20 for every passing TD, subtracts 45 yards for every INT (hence properly weighting or "adjusting" for TD-INT ratio), and also subtracts sack yardage. No one stat is capable of completely defining a QB's play, but ANY/A is a good start.

Passer Rating is a somewhat controversial statistic, but I feel its inclusion is necessary to account for things such as completion %, as well as a QB having a poor O-Line.

For QBs who do not have available sack yardage (rendering ANY/A+ for them invalid), AY/A+ was used instead. For QBs whose ANY/A+ data was incomplete, their AY/A+ was slightly adjusted according to their available ANY/A+ numbers.

 

How does this help us compare QBs across eras?

 

Here is where the Adjusted Passing Stats come in. ANY/A+ and Rate+ will be the basis for my stat, EAP (Era-Adjusted Passing).

EAP consists of 3 subcategories:

Career EAP: A QBs average between their ANY/A+ and Rate+ for all eligible seasons; an eligible season is any season where a QB STARTED in at least 50% of available games: 9 games in a 17-game season, 8 games in a 16-game season, 7 games in a 14 game season, etc. Exception made for the 1982 strike season, where a QB needs to have started at least 7 games

Peak EAP: A QBs average between their ANY/A+ and Rate + for their 3 best, consecutive eligible seasons (e.g. 2004-2006 for Peyton Manning, not just 2004, 2013, and another Manning season); exceptions are made for a guy like Tom Brady, as his 2007, 2009, and 2010 are considered his peak consecutive 3 years since his 2008 season ended in week 1

Weighted EAP: The average between a QBs Career and 3-year Peak EAP; properly weights down an average stat accumulator with no "great" seasons, while propping up a QB who burned hot but did not necessarily maintain peak play over their career.

 

Okay, great. So who comes out on top?

I spent most of this morning calculating EAP values for most HOF QBs, as well as recent notables. The list for each category is as follows...

Career EAP

1. Otto Graham: 129.9
2. Steve Young: 126.56
3. Roger Staubach: 123.5
4. Joe Montana: 121.88
5. Patrick Mahomes: 120.67
6. Aaron Rodgers: 120.21
7. Kurt Warner 118.63
8. Peyton Manning: 118.44
9. Tony Romo: 117.75 (lol)
10. Drew Brees 116.71
11. Len Dawson 116.13
12. Dan Marino 115.84
13. Tom Brady: 115.62
14. Johnny Unitas: 115
15. Dan Fouts: 114.15
16. Norm Van Brocklin: 113.89
17. Ken Anderson: 113
18. Bart Starr: 112.75
19. Kirk Cousins: 112.44
20. Russell Wilson: 112.21
21. Sonny Jurgensen: 112.1
22. Dak Prescott: 111.93
23. Philip Rivers: 111.9
24. Fran Tarkenton: 111.89
25. Y.A. Tittle: 111.23
26. Bob Griese: 111.21
27. Jim Kelly: 110.32
28. Ben Roethlisberger: 110
29. Brett Favre: 108.61
30. Randall Cunningham: 108.5
31. Donovan McNabb: 108.36
32. Jared Goff: 108.14
33. Matt Ryan: 107.03
34. Ken Stabler: 106.59
35. Warren Moon: 105.8
36. Andrew Luck: 105.7
37. Carson Palmer: 105.68
38. Steve McNair: 105.5
39. John Elway: 104.81 (lol)
40. Joe Namath: 104.78
41. Troy Aikman: 104.75
42. Alex Smith: 103.5
43. Matt Stafford: 103.39
44. Terry Bradshaw: 103.09
45. John Hadl: 102.42
46. Andy Dalton: 100.18
47. Eli Manning: 100.14
48. Mike Vick: 99.64
49. Jay Cutler: 99.6
50. Drew Bledsoe 98.38
51. Cam Newton: 97.61

 

3-year Peak EAP

1. Steve Young: 139
2. Otto Graham: 138.67
3. Peyton Manning 136.67
4. Kurt Warner: 132.83
5. Aaron Rodgers: 132.17
6. Joe Montana: 130.83
7. Tom Brady: 130.67
8. Len Dawson: 129.67
9. Dan Marino: 129.50
10. Dan Fouts: 128.5
11. Johnny Unitas: 128.33
12. Roger Staubach: 128.17
13. Drew Brees: 127.17
14. Patrick Mahomes: 126.83
15. Philip Rivers: 125.67
16. Ken Anderson 125.17
17. Ken Stabler/Y.A Tittle/Brett Favre: 124.33
18. Jim Kelly: 124.17
19. Fran Tarkenton/Matt Ryan: 123
20. Bart Starr: 122.83
21. Warren Moon: 122.5
22. Troy Aikman: 121.33
23. Norm Van Brocklin/Donovan McNabb: 120.17
24. Bob Griese: 118.33
25. Tony Romo: 117.83
26. Russell Wilson/Steve McNair/John Hadl: 117.67
27. Kirk Cousins: 117.5
28. Terry Bradshaw: 117.33
29. John Elway: 117
30. Sonny Jurgensen/Carson Palmer: 115.67
31. Dak Prescott: 115.5
32. Matt Stafford: 114.67
33. Ben Roethlisberger: 114.5
34. Andrew Luck: 111.67
35. Joe Namath: 111.17
36. Jared Goff/Eli Manning: 110.67
37. Alex Smith: 110
38. Drew Bledsoe: 109
39. Andy Dalton: 108.83
40. Randall Cunningham: 106.83
41. Mike Vick: 104.5
42. Cam Newton: 102.33
43. Jay Cutler: 101.83

 

Weighted EAP

1. Otto Graham: 134.28
2. Steve Young: 132.78
3. Peyton Manning 127.55
4. Joe Montana: 126.35
5. Aaron Rodger: 126.19
6. Roger Staubach 125.83
7. Kurt Warner 125.73
8. Patrick Mahomes 123.75
9. Tom Brady: 123.14
10. Len Dawson: 122.9
11. Dan Marino 122.67
12. Drew Brees 121.94
13. Johnny Unitas 121.67
14. Dan Fouts 121.33
15. Ken Anderson 119.08
16. Philip Rivers 118.78
17. Tony Romo/Bart Starr 117.79
18. Y.A Tittle: 117.78
19. Fran Tarkenton 117.44
20. Jim Kelly 117.24
21. Norm Van Brocklin 117.03
22. Brett Favre 116.47
23. Ken Stabler 115.46
24. Matt Ryan 115.02
25. Kirk Cousins 114.97
26. Russell Wilson 114.94
27. Bob Griese 114.77
28. Donovan McNabb 114.27
29. Warren Moon 114.15

[HerbertGOAT]

30. Sonny Jurgensen 113.88

31. Dak Prescott 113.71

32.Troy Aikman 113.04

33. Ben Roethlisberger 112.25

34. Steve McNair 111.58

35. John Elway 110.91

36. Carson Palmer 110.67

37. Terry Bradshaw 110.21

38. John Hadl 110.04

39. Jared Goff 109.4

40. Matt Stafford 109.03

41. Andrew Luck 108.68

42. Joe Namath 107.97

43. Randall Cunningham 107.67

44. Alex Smith 106.75

45. Eli Manning 105.4

46. Andy Dalton 104.51

47. Drew Bledsoe 103.69

48. Mike Vick 102.07

49. Jay Cutler 100.72

50. Cam Newton 99.97

 

Elway seems to be probably THE most overrated QB of all-time.

Len Dawson and Roger Staubach; underrated ballers.

It's a travesty that Ken Anderson isn't in the HOF.

QBs who did not play as long as some of their contemporaries (McNair, Romo, Mahomes) gain an advantage, use your own discretion when it comes to that.

I'm sure I missed some notable QBs, so if you want me to run the numbers, let me know. Obviously this is not a be-all-end-all stat, but it is a helpful indicator of how QBs performed relative to their era.

Edited December 14, 2023 by HerbertGOAT

[AngusMcFife]

Nice work. I use DVOA too because it adjust for what is "average" for each season, but it only goes back to 1980 or so. 

Surprised to see the 49er QBs so high up on the career list because Montana was more of a clutch player than regular season dominator, and Young wasn't good until he was 30. 

Otto Graham: what a beast! 

[HerbertGOAT]

2 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Nice work. I use DVOA too because it adjust for what is "average" for each season, but it only goes back to 1980 or so. 

Surprised to see the 49er QBs so high up on the career list because Montana was more of a clutch player than regular season dominator, and Young wasn't good until he was 30. 

Otto Graham: what a beast! 

Montana was definitely the epitome of efficiency.

[HerbertGOAT]

For Additional reference: Some of the most notable QB seasons ever and their EAP for that season:

2004 Manning: 152

1984 Marino 145.5

2011 Rodgers 148

2007 Brady 145

1989 Montana 145

2016 Matt Ryan 140.5

1998 Cunningham 137

2013 Manning 138

2018 Mahomes 133.5

2011 Brees 132.5

1995 Favre 130

1999 Warner 135

2010 Brady 129

[Danger]

Era adjusting and having Mahomes over Peyton is a bit strange to me.

[MaddHatter]

There are a few people out there that won't recall me as a staunch Otto Graham GOAT evangelist.  That being said, these "era adjusted stats" don't take into consideration weapons (Brady had nobody, Manning had HOFers) or level of competition (Otto played when players were part-timers and had full-time jobs and (IIRC) had few, if any, players of color (been a while so forgive me).). 

Regardless, I like the attempt and I think it has some merit, but as with anything, has some obvious flaws (Romo is a great All-Time Cowboys QB, but he isn't Top 10 All-Time)

[HerbertGOAT]

11 hours ago, Danger said:

Era adjusting and having Mahomes over Peyton is a bit strange to me.

That's over the course of a career. Manning rookie, and horrible 2015 included. The 3-year peak and weighted stat has Manning well above Mahomes. Mahomes has only started 6 eligible seasons, whereas Manning has 17. That will of course inflate Mahomes career average, while bringing down Manning's.

Edited December 16, 2023 by HerbertGOAT

[mse326]

On 12/14/2023 at 2:23 PM, HerbertGOAT said:

For Additional reference: Some of the most notable QB seasons ever and their EAP for that season:

2004 Manning: 152

1984 Marino 145.5

2011 Rodgers 148

2007 Brady 145

1989 Montana 145

2016 Matt Ryan 140.5

1998 Cunningham 137

2013 Manning 138

2018 Mahomes 133.5

2011 Brees 132.5

1995 Favre 130

1999 Warner 135

2010 Brady 129

What's Grahams 1953? I've seen it referenced as the best ever, if you don't inlcude playoffs.

[HerbertGOAT]

4 hours ago, mse326 said:

What's Grahams 1953? I've seen it referenced as the best ever, if you don't inlcude playoffs.

Graham's 1953 comes out to a 145, so it's right up there.

[Steelers1975]

If you just use your eyes.    It's dan marino and warren moon at the top.   Nobody played the position  the way those 2 did

[CasperX22]

On 12/14/2023 at 1:51 PM, HerbertGOAT said:

30. Sonny Jurgensen 113.88

31. Dak Prescott 113.71

32.Troy Aikman 113.04

33. Ben Roethlisberger 112.25

34. Steve McNair 111.58

35. John Elway 110.91

36. Carson Palmer 110.67

37. Terry Bradshaw 110.21

38. John Hadl 110.04

39. Jared Goff 109.4

40. Matt Stafford 109.03

41. Andrew Luck 108.68

42. Joe Namath 107.97

43. Randall Cunningham 107.67

44. Alex Smith 106.75

45. Eli Manning 105.4

46. Andy Dalton 104.51

47. Drew Bledsoe 103.69

48. Mike Vick 102.07

49. Jay Cutler 100.72

50. Cam Newton 99.97

 

Elway seems to be probably THE most overrated QB of all-time.

Len Dawson and Roger Staubach; underrated ballers.

It's a travesty that Ken Anderson isn't in the HOF.

QBs who did not play as long as some of their contemporaries (McNair, Romo, Mahomes) gain an advantage, use your own discretion when it comes to that.

I'm sure I missed some notable QBs, so if you want me to run the numbers, let me know. Obviously this is not a be-all-end-all stat, but it is a helpful indicator of how QBs performed relative to their era.

Who's underrating Staubach?  Old timers talk about him like he's the goat.

[HerbertGOAT]

19 hours ago, CasperX22 said:

Who's underrating Staubach?  Old timers talk about him like he's the goat.

I don't see his name brought up much anymore. Those who saw him play live obviously know how good he was, but it seems like things from over 30+ years ago are being forgotten (understandably so). Still, Staubach may have been the best QB of the 70's and is one of the guys whose game would translate today.

[AngusMcFife]

4 hours ago, HerbertGOAT said:

I don't see his name brought up much anymore. Those who saw him play live obviously know how good he was, but it seems like things from over 30+ years ago are being forgotten (understandably so). Still, Staubach may have been the best QB of the 70's and is one of the guys whose game would translate today.

He's definitely the best QB of the 1970s, but the 1970s were also the weakest decade for QBs and it was the era when defense and rushing attacks were most dominant.