Prelude To A Mock Draft -- Trade Back Scenarios

[Just Want A Title]

We still have some football left in the season but I decided to work on some feasible trade-back scenarios.  I need some feedback to figure out of the value proposition makes sense:

Assumption:  The Lions are picking 26 or later in the first round.

Trade 1:

The Lions trade back with the Atlanta Falcons out of Round 1 into early Round 2.  The Falcons receive pick #2X (still TBD).  The Lions receive #43, #74 and 141.  Picks in the third and fifth rounds are very early in each round.  

Trade 2:

The Lions trade back with the Jets with their late 3rd-round pick, #9X.  The Lions receive picks 111 and 113.  Those picks are early in the 4th round also.

 

This scenario would leave the Lions with:

Rd 2, #43 (from Falcons)

Rd 2, #5X (original pick, final slot TBD)

Rd 3, #73 (from Vikings)

Rd 3, #74 (from Falcons)

Rd 4, #111 (from Jets)

Rd 4, #113 (from Jets)

Rd 5,  #16X (original pick, final slot TBD)

Rd 6,  #20X (original pick, final slot TBD)

Rd 7, #24X (original pick, final slot TBD)

 

The value on Trade 1 might be a little light but I tried to keep it realistic.  Thoughts?

[Sllim Pickens]

Based on the trade value chart, they both seem realistic with the first trade actually being a decent amount in our favor. 

I just did a mock on PFN and the Falcons wouldn't trade but the Panthers gave 33 and 65 for 28 which seems crazy but similar mindset.  I also dropped back at the end of the 3rd for a fourth and fifth similar to your second deal. The results were:

33 - T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
60 - Bralen Trice, Edge Washington
65 - Josh Newton, CB TCU
73 - Jackson Powers-Johnson OC Oregon
103 - Johnny Wilson, WR Florida St
134 - Javon Foster, OT Mizzu
156 - Brenden Rice, WR USC
188 - Josh Proctor, S Ohio St
220 - Gabriel Murphy, Edge UCLA

I don't think a lot of these guys will be there when we pick but I would be super happy with this draft.  

[Just Want A Title]

2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Based on the trade value chart, they both seem realistic with the first trade actually being a decent amount in our favor. 

I just did a mock on PFN and the Falcons wouldn't trade but the Panthers gave 33 and 65 for 28 which seems crazy but similar mindset.  I also dropped back at the end of the 3rd for a fourth and fifth similar to your second deal. The results were:

33 - T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
60 - Bralen Trice, Edge Washington
65 - Josh Newton, CB TCU
73 - Jackson Powers-Johnson OC Oregon
103 - Johnny Wilson, WR Florida St
134 - Javon Foster, OT Mizzu
156 - Brenden Rice, WR USC
188 - Josh Proctor, S Ohio St
220 - Gabriel Murphy, Edge UCLA

I don't think a lot of these guys will be there when we pick but I would be super happy with this draft.  

Some of them might be.  Sweat has gotten bigger this year and not in a good way.  He will be in the 2d round mix but could drop.  Bralen Trice is all over the place right now but I am not sure he makes it to 60.  Javon Foster is a player I like as a long-term solution at LT.  I have seen him projected in the late second but I have also seen him projected 1-2 rounds later.  I do see Jacskon Powers-Johnson solidly in the 2d round and would love to see him be drafted by the Lions.  Solid work!

[detfan782004]

3 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Based on the trade value chart, they both seem realistic with the first trade actually being a decent amount in our favor. 

I just did a mock on PFN and the Falcons wouldn't trade but the Panthers gave 33 and 65 for 28 which seems crazy but similar mindset.  I also dropped back at the end of the 3rd for a fourth and fifth similar to your second deal. The results were:

33 - T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
60 - Bralen Trice, Edge Washington
65 - Josh Newton, CB TCU
73 - Jackson Powers-Johnson OC Oregon
103 - Johnny Wilson, WR Florida St
134 - Javon Foster, OT Mizzu
156 - Brenden Rice, WR USC
188 - Josh Proctor, S Ohio St
220 - Gabriel Murphy, Edge UCLA

I don't think a lot of these guys will be there when we pick but I would be super happy with this draft.  

I really dont care for any of the players outside Newtonbut I dont mind the positions at all.

Edited January 11 by detfan782004

[detfan782004]

My too early

 

Rnd 1- CB- Lassiter - GA

Rnd 2- CB- Newton- TCU

Rnd 3-  S- Moore- UM

Rnd 3- DT- Fiske- FSU

Rnd 5- Edge- Isaac- PSU

Rnd 6- TE- Holker- CSU

Rnd 7- Edge- Green- James Madison

 

Defense, Defense, Defense....and a TE who can pass protect.  He needs to beef up run blocking but he is a perfect DC type player.  Yes back to back CB and DBs early.  

[Lions017]

You always consider trading back, but going from the first to the second round deprives you of that fifth-year option. That's kind of a big deal. You have to get serious value back. 

[Sllim Pickens]

12 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

I really dont care for any of the players outside Newtonbut I dont mind the positions at all.

Sweat is the highest rated NT, which seems to be the type of DT we want next to McNeil.  He has pass rush ability and a ton of batted balls. Trice has 53 hurries this year and 8 sacks while playing the run well.  A perfect fit to replace the Okwaras and Harris. Powers Johnson is the highest rated OC from PFF and likely will be an early second and at 320, can play guard until Ragnow needs to step away. Wilson and Rice are two very needed type WRs with Wilson replacing Reynolds and Rice replacing DPJ.  Both are bigger bodies with sure hands and would add a different skill set to our WR core. Foster is one of the highest rated OTs on PFF going against some of the best edge defenders in the draft this year. Proctor lines up all over at S which is what we need in a backup given Iffy's emergence.  He will be similar to his former teammate Ronnie Hickman who was an UDFA last year and the highest rated rookie defender per PFF this year. And Gabe Murphy is the slightly smaller Edge defender that again gets pressures and allowed his opposite edge Liatu to have a huge season.  He would be added depth again in the same role that the Okwara's and Harris have.  These players are exactly the type of guys we tend to target under Holmes and that line up in a similar manner to the guys we need to replace/upgrade.  And all are productive.  I bet most of this list will end up in the first three rounds when all is said and done but for now they are available on PFN so I took them. 

[Sllim Pickens]

12 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

My too early

 

Rnd 1- CB- Lassiter - GA

Rnd 2- CB- Newton- TCU

Rnd 3-  S- Moore- UM

Rnd 3- DT- Fiske- FSU

Rnd 5- Edge- Isaac- PSU

Rnd 6- TE- Holker- CSU

Rnd 7- Edge- Green- James Madison

 

Defense, Defense, Defense....and a TE who can pass protect.  He needs to beef up run blocking but he is a perfect DC type player.  Yes back to back CB and DBs early.  

Lassiter is solid but makes me nervous being a one year wonder and the fact he is only 180 lbs.  He plays on a great defense and similar to other Georgia defenders going pro, may struggle some when not surrounded by the best defense in the league. If we go CB in the first I would prefer Quinyon Mitchell who has three years of elite passer rating against and better size.  

I do like Newton and think he will be a solid pro CB

Rod Moore has a relatively poor coverage grade which I don't like seeing out of a S.  He is a solid tackler and plays the run well but not sure he fits what we do at S very well.  

Fiske is solid but undersized compared to what we have ran out at DT being he is under 300 lbs.  He is a more of a replacement for Cominsky than he is for Buggs based on where he lines up and his pass rush skills aren't as good as Cominsky's. 

I do like Issac, he is a solid replacement for Harris.  Plays a similar style and would fit what we typically look for in a player. 

I like adding a TE late too.  I am guessing we move on from Brock Wright and grabbing one late makes sense.  I don't know a ton on Hollker but he had a solid year.  Not sure he is a great blocker to replace Wright but adding a TE there is smart.  I lean towards Erick All, the former UM and current Iowa TE later in drafts but just adding anyone there should help. 

Jalen Green is a great late round edge to take a chance on.  Small school guy but got after the passer.  He is smaller in the James Houston mold so I hope they wouldn't try to make him a coverage LB like they did Houston but it would be nice to have someone in that mold to rotate in with Houston in a pass rush specialist mold. 

[Just Want A Title]

39 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Sweat is the highest rated NT, which seems to be the type of DT we want next to McNeil.  He has pass rush ability and a ton of batted balls. Trice has 53 hurries this year and 8 sacks while playing the run well.  A perfect fit to replace the Okwaras and Harris. Powers Johnson is the highest rated OC from PFF and likely will be an early second and at 320, can play guard until Ragnow needs to step away. Wilson and Rice are two very needed type WRs with Wilson replacing Reynolds and Rice replacing DPJ.  Both are bigger bodies with sure hands and would add a different skill set to our WR core. Foster is one of the highest rated OTs on PFF going against some of the best edge defenders in the draft this year. Proctor lines up all over at S which is what we need in a backup given Iffy's emergence.  He will be similar to his former teammate Ronnie Hickman who was an UDFA last year and the highest rated rookie defender per PFF this year. And Gabe Murphy is the slightly smaller Edge defender that again gets pressures and allowed his opposite edge Liatu to have a huge season.  He would be added depth again in the same role that the Okwara's and Harris have.  These players are exactly the type of guys we tend to target under Holmes and that line up in a similar manner to the guys we need to replace/upgrade.  And all are productive.  I bet most of this list will end up in the first three rounds when all is said and done but for now they are available on PFN so I took them. 

Javon Foster has flown under the radar to this point, probably because there are a lot of top-shelf OT prospects in this draft.  Like a number of the second-tier prospects, a lot of draft pundits have him moving to RT.  However, check out the line for 2023:  "In 2023 as a fifth year senior Foster saw action in 12 games and played a total of 831 snaps for the Tigers. He allowed 12 QB hurries, no QB hits, and one sack while playing at left tackle."

Missouri played K-State, LSU, South Carolina and Georgia in 2023 so that is a pretty solid stat line.  He needs to work in his feet and become a better technician but otherwise fits the physical style of play the Lions like to see from their O-Line.  He won't have to start right away so adding him to the roster would be a perfect situation for the Lions.   He would be a good addition to the roster.

[idoubtit]

BH will find the few players that fit the profile he wants and then he will do whatever he can to get them. That might be trading up or trading back. He won't just trade back to accumulate picks. He will only trade back if it helps him get the guys he wants. He will identify 15 or so players will cover the spectrum of at least 6 rounds. Then he will run his draft to get as many of his top guys as he can.

[Sllim Pickens]

12 minutes ago, idoubtit said:

BH will find the few players that fit the profile he wants and then he will do whatever he can to get them. That might be trading up or trading back. He won't just trade back to accumulate picks. He will only trade back if it helps him get the guys he wants. He will identify 15 or so players will cover the spectrum of at least 6 rounds. Then he will run his draft to get as many of his top guys as he can.

This is very true.  I think last year we didn't have the must have guy that high so we dropped down.  I don't think that was targeting anyone specific but more to do with the lack of must have talent at 6. I am guessing they had enough guys ranked similarly that no matter what, they would get one of them with the drop to 12. After that I think it is all about moving up for your guys. He mentioned they only had 15 guys with first round grades last year.

That being said, when we are on the clock in the first we will see if any of the guys we have first round grades on are there, and if there is a value he will pick them.  If they like the pool in the second better and can obtain more picks to get more guys in that pool, he will drop down.  But my guess is he won't drop further down than where he is guaranteed to get one of the guys he likes in that next tier.  So if all of the elites are gone at pick 32 when we are on the clock and we have 15 guys similarly ranked in that next tier, we will drop no further than 15 spots. 

[Just Want A Title]

45 minutes ago, idoubtit said:

BH will find the few players that fit the profile he wants and then he will do whatever he can to get them. That might be trading up or trading back. He won't just trade back to accumulate picks. He will only trade back if it helps him get the guys he wants. He will identify 15 or so players will cover the spectrum of at least 6 rounds. Then he will run his draft to get as many of his top guys as he can.

I don't know if we can pigeon-hole Brad Holmes into a particular draft style.  In his first two years, he didn't do too much trading other than the Jameson Williams and Derrick Barnes trades.  He let the draft come to him for the most part.  After the draft this year, he mentioned that he moved around a lot because the strength of the draft was in rounds 1-3 and he wanted to lean into that.  I suspect he will continue to lean into the strength of the draft going forward and run his draft accordingly.  One thing is certain is that he will follow his draft board.  

All that being said, this draft aligns pretty well with the needs of the Lions.  We have significant needs at CB, interior O-line, OT and EDGE.  There are a bunch of very good prospects at CB and OT in the late first as well as the early-to-mid 2nd round.  Their might be some solid CB prospects available in the 2nd half of Round 2 also.  Round 3 should let them address their needs on the interior O-line with a quality player if they don't do it in the 1st or 2nd-Round.  Heck, there could be some pretty good IOL prospects in the 4th round with the way this draft is shaping up.  All of that is good news for the Lions.

[Just Want A Title]

18 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Based on the trade value chart, they both seem realistic with the first trade actually being a decent amount in our favor. 

I just did a mock on PFN and the Falcons wouldn't trade but the Panthers gave 33 and 65 for 28 which seems crazy but similar mindset.  I also dropped back at the end of the 3rd for a fourth and fifth similar to your second deal. The results were:

33 - T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
60 - Bralen Trice, Edge Washington
65 - Josh Newton, CB TCU
73 - Jackson Powers-Johnson OC Oregon
103 - Johnny Wilson, WR Florida St
134 - Javon Foster, OT Mizzu
156 - Brenden Rice, WR USC
188 - Josh Proctor, S Ohio St
220 - Gabriel Murphy, Edge UCLA

I don't think a lot of these guys will be there when we pick but I would be super happy with this draft.  

I picked Atlanta because I think Arthur Blank wants to start winning with his new HC.  I think one of the players that will fall to the Lions will look too good to pass up to the Falcons.

[Sllim Pickens]

24 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

I picked Atlanta because I think Arthur Blank wants to start winning with his new HC.  I think one of the players that will fall to the Lions will look too good to pass up to the Falcons.

I get it, and would not be shocked if they make a move but would not in the mock simulator.  I honestly would hope for a similar draft even if we drop down a few more spots.