Karnage84 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) The Super Bowl is over and we're now moving into the off-season including the draft. This is an exercise in what the Lions' off-season could look like and some approaches they could take. The Lions' rebuild is over and they belong in the conversation as one of the best teams in football. However, we do need to address some of our biggest discrepancies, principally on defense. Starting 2024 Cap Space: $46,138,386 (according to Over The Cap) ACTIVE EXTENSIONS/RESTRUCTURES (+ Increase to current 2024 cap hit; - to current 2024 cap hit) - Jared Goff: 4 years x $200M (2024 Cap Hit of $36M > +$4M) - Goff is going to get extended and he deserves this contract based on what he's put together the past 2 years. The cap will increase over the next few years and they'll either re-work his contract or cut him before it reaches the end - Taylor Decker: 2 years x $26M (2024 Cap Hit of $10M > -$9M): Taylor Decker has been through it all with the Lions and he does not want to go anywhere else. He had some struggles at points in the season but is part of one of the top OL's in the league. This move stretches his $19M cap hit out and ensures that we have an LT under contract beyond this year - Amon St-Brown: 5 years x $125M (2024 Cap Hit of $6.5M > + $5.25M): The heart and soul of the Lions offense gets his deal. This is similar to the AJ Brown deal with an extra year thrown in - John Cominsky - restructure to $2.5M cap hit (-$3.8M): Cominsky restructures his deal instead of being a cap casualty - Cam Sutton - restructure to $5.7M cap hit (+$6.97M): Sutton is being paid like a CB1 but is truly a CB2. He takes a team-friendly deal for his shot at a championship ring. NET 2024 CAP SPACE: $56.4M +/- CUTS - Tracy Walker (post June 1st) = +$8M Cap Space; $4M Dead Cap - Levi Onzuwurike = +$1.77M Cap space; $800k Dead Cap NET 2024 CAP SPACE = $66.17M INTERNAL FREE-AGENT SIGNINGS - Chauncey Gardner-Johnson: 2 years at $15.5M (includes 1 void year): Essentially the same deal that he had coming in this year. We're losing Tracy and Kerby took a step back, so we need to ensure we have a strong veteran presence in the backfield. The Lions brass can iron out some of the extra stuff he brings to the table that can be detrimental - Graham Glasgow: 3 years x $5.5M: Glasgow solidified himself on the right side of the line and offers versatility as an OC or even LG if need be - Jalen Reeves-Maybin - 1 year at $1.75M - Kindle Vildor - 1 year at $1.125M (Vet Minimum) - Dan Skipper - 1 year at $1.125M (Vet Minimum) - Brock Wright (RFA) - 1 year at $1.05M - Benito Jones (RFA) - 1 year at $1.05M - Khalil Dorsey (RFA) - 1 year at $1.05M - Scott Daly (RFA) - 1 year at $1.05M - Kayode Awosika (ERFA) - $985k - Craig Reynolds (ERFA) - $985k - Zonovan Knight (ERFA) - $985k - James Houston (ERFA) - $985k - Chase Lucas (ERFA) - $985k NET 2024 CAP SPACE: $60.157M LET WALK Jonah Jackson Josh Reynolds Will Harris Donovan Peoples-Jones Jerry Jacobs Tyson Alualu Anthony Firkser Matt Nelson Jake McQuaide Shane Zylstra Michael Badgley Anthony Pittman Nate Sudfeld Romeo Okwara Hal Vaitai Charles Harris OFFENSE QB: Goff, Hooker, [TBD] LT: Decker, Skipper LG: [TBD], Awosika OC: Ragnow, [TBD] RG: Glasgow, Sorsdal RT: Sewell, [TBD] LWR: Williams, Green SWR: St. Brown, Raymond RWR: [TBD], [TBD] RB: Montgomery, Gibbs, Reynolds, Knight TE: LaPorta, Wright, Mitchell DEFENSE DE: Paschale, Cominsky NT: [TBD], Jones, Martin 3T: McNeill, [TBD] RUSH: Hutchinson, Houston WLB: Anzalone, Reeves-Maybin, Rodriguez MLB: Barnes, Campbell, [TBD] LCB: [TBD], Vildor, Dorsey SCB: Branch, [TBD], Lucas RCB: Sutton, [TBD], [TBD] SS: Gardner-Johnson, Melifonwu FS: Joseph, [TBD] RESERVES/INTERNAL OPTIONS Josh Reynolds, WR - Could be brought back on a team-friendly deal. Had a solid season other than the NFC Championship game. Lions could still look to upgrade Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR - Brought in by trade. Didn't do enough to warrant being a serious contender but could be brought back Shane Zylstra, TE Emmanuel Moseley, CB - Lions could bring him back for a low-end contract Mitchell Agude, DE [FUT] Chris Smith, DT [FUT] Maurice Alexander, WR [FUT] Tom Kennedy, WR [FUT] Tre'Quan Smith, WR [FUT] Daurice Fountain, WR [FUT] Jermar Jefferson, RB [FUT] Craig James, RB [FUT] Jake Funk, RB [FUT] Brandon Joseph, S [FUT] Michael Niese, OG [FUT] Connor Galvin, OL [FUT] Matt Farniok, OG [FUT] Netane Muti, OG [FUT] Mathieu Betts, LB [FUT] FREE AGENCY NET CAP: $60M Draft Class: $10M IN-SEASON FA RESERVE: $15M NET AVAILABLE CAP: $35M TEAM NEEDS: CB1, DE, REO/EDGE, LG, CB4, X-WR/WR2, NT, FS FUTURE NEEDS: LT, OC, RG Jaylon Johnson, CB - 5 years x $18M (2024 Cap Hit - $12M) (25): Johnson checks a lot of the boxes for the Lions. He ranks in the top of zone grades on PFF, is strong against the run and he'd instantly weaken a division rival. The Bears aren't a major threat at the moment but they should be more formidable with the amount of draft capital they have (and will have). Brad Holmes has typically not gone ahead for the big-name free agent. However, we've built the foundation with a series of strong drafts and we've paid core elements to the team. A player like Johnson is going to help push us out from 'rebuilding' to 'competing' and being in the hunt for a championship. An important caveat here - the Lions understand that they're not in the position to get a top-level rookie CB that fits their needs and we can't rely on Sutton and Moseley as our duo going forward. We don't have to reach for a 2nd round talent just to fill a spot. AJ Epenesa, EDGE (26) - 4 years x $6M: Hutchinson needs a running mate and the Lions opted to not go out and trade for either Sweat or Young (while also paying them). Epenesa offers decent size (6'6, 260 lbs) and grades out well (82.5) as a pass-rusher (72.6) and the run (64.7). He's generating pressures on nearly 14% of his pass rush snaps (Hutch is 15%) and has 5 sacks (3.3% vs Hutch at 1.3% ). DJ Reader, NT - 2 years x $12M (30): The Lions add a big body to pair with McNeill. He's solid as a pass-rusher and against the run. Evan Brown, OG/OC: 2 years x $2.75M (27): The former Lion comes home like his soon-to-be teammate, Graham Glasgow. Brown's versatility is a plus as he can play all three interior OL spots. Jordan Fuller, FS: 3 years @ $12M: (2024 Cap Hit $3.5M): This is a 2-year x $6M deal that stretches some of the cap hit into 2026. Fuller is a Brad Holmes pick from his time at the Rams. He's a veteran presence on the back end and will be an upgrade over Tracy Walker. POST-FA NET CAP: $23.75M (We've dipped a bit into the planned cap space) Edited February 14 by Karnage84 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Tso Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I like what I see. Not extending Penei too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, General Tso said: I like what I see. Not extending Penei too? Not yet - we should be staggering things a bit. St. Brown and Goff are priority #1. Penei, McNeil and Hutch are all next in line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Tso Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 other things. I'm wondering if they resign Mosely to the minimum. I know it's hard to predict trades, but I'm thinking they will try to trade Tracy first before cutting him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idoubtit Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, General Tso said: I know it's hard to predict trades, but I'm thinking they will try to trade Tracy first before cutting him. No way we will get anything for Tracy with that contract. However, I do think we can re-do his deal and end up with the same cap savings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idoubtit Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 OTC has an interesting article on the SB teams and how they spend. https://overthecap.com/nfl-super-bowl-team-spending-trends-2013-2023 It kind of changes my thinking on several positions, like the interior of the lines and CBs. QB is also interesting because there are a ton of underpaid QBs who have been to the SB but Mahomes is the counter argument for going cheap at QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Tso Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, idoubtit said: No way we will get anything for Tracy with that contract. However, I do think we can re-do his deal and end up with the same cap savings. You don't think a team with no starting safety wouldn't trade a 7th for a 1 year deal? His salary isn't that bad this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idoubtit Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, General Tso said: You don't think a team with no starting safety wouldn't trade a 7th for a 1 year deal? His salary isn't that bad this year. OTC has his value at about $1.5m, while I'd say he is worth $3-3.5m. I can't imagine anyone paying him $8m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Tso Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, idoubtit said: OTC has his value at about $1.5m, while I'd say he is worth $3-3.5m. I can't imagine anyone paying him $8m. I suppose if we agree to some kind of restructure of his salary to a bonus before trading him it might work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 19 minutes ago, idoubtit said: OTC has an interesting article on the SB teams and how they spend. https://overthecap.com/nfl-super-bowl-team-spending-trends-2013-2023 It kind of changes my thinking on several positions, like the interior of the lines and CBs. QB is also interesting because there are a ton of underpaid QBs who have been to the SB but Mahomes is the counter argument for going cheap at QB. Interesting article, thanks for sharing. The problem with the whole QB thing is scarcity - Patrick Mahomes may go down as the GOAT at QB. When people talk about "generational talent", this is how you're comparing him. It's a rarity to have someone of his caliber fall into your lap. Building out the roster and surrounding your QB with the best talent is going to be the best way to get into the dance. Having an elite-level guy who can elevate the team around him is the difference between winning it and just being a part of it. However, we have seen several cases where the team beats the individual talents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, idoubtit said: No way we will get anything for Tracy with that contract. However, I do think we can re-do his deal and end up with the same cap savings. I don't really see a need to bring him back. He was benched for a good chunk of time and is quite costly. Maybe I'd bring him back after the draft on a vet minimum deal if we had a spot available but I just don't see a point in keeping him around. Especially if we bring back CJGJ (which I think we should). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 (edited) DRAFT #29 - Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State: The Lions have addressed two core issues in free agency and look to the draft to add value. Adding a big-body X-WR to pair with St. Brown, Jamo, LaPorta, Gibbs, etc. is going to continue helping by surrounding Goff with high-level talent. Coleman also provides insurance in case St. Brown goes down or Jamo struggles to reach what the Lions hoped he would become when he was picked at pick #12. #61 - Dominick Puni, OG, Kansas: Puni can play at OT or OG and is strong in the run game. His versatility is an asset in the event of injury at either LT or RT. #73 - Jarvis Brownlee, CB, Louisville: Brownlee checks all of the boxes for what the Lions are looking for - he's got good size (5'10, 183 lbs), he's strong against the run, in zone and he's a playmaker (16.2% of coverage snaps). He is not afraid to hit and looks more like a safety than a CB. He's going to come in as our CB4 and upgrade over guys like Jacobs or Vildor with a chance to take over as CB2 or even CB1 in 2025. #92 - Marshawn Kneeland, Edge, Western Michigan: Kneeland is a developmental player that can eventually be an upgrade over Josh Paschal or provide valuable depth to the DL #163 - Theo Johnson, TE, Penn State: He's unlikely to be here in April but he's available, so why not? Johnson had a showing at the Senior Bowl. He could be a dude. This gives the Lions the ability to run a lot of 12 personnel. #207 - Justin Rogers, NT, Auburn: Rogers is a big dude at 6'2, 338 lbs. He is strong against the run and offers a little something as a pass-rusher #247 - Josh Proctor, S, Ohio State: A versatile, hard-hitting safety Black = Veteran (Under contract) Green = Free Agent Gray = Internal re-signing Blue = Draft Pick OFFENSE QB: Goff, Hooker LT: Decker, Skipper LG: Puni, Awosika OC: Ragnow, Brown RG: Glasgow, Sorsdal RT: Sewell, [TBD] LWR: Williams, Green SWR: St. Brown, Raymond RWR: Coleman, [TBD] RB: Montgomery, Gibbs, Reynolds, Knight TE: LaPorta, Johnson, Wright, Mitchell DEFENSE DE: Paschal, Kneeland, Cominsky, NT: Reader, Jones, Martin 3T: McNeill, Rogers RUSH: Hutchinson, Epenesa, Houston WLB: Anzalone, Reeves-Maybin, Rodriguez MLB: Barnes, Campbell, [TBD] LCB: Johnson, Vildor, Dorsey SCB: Branch, [TBD], Lucas RCB: Sutton, Brownlee, [TBD] SS: Gardner-Johnson, Melifonwu FS: Fuller, Joseph, Proctor POST-DRAFT NET CAP: $17.5M Edited February 14 by Karnage84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idoubtit Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 hours ago, Karnage84 said: I don't really see a need to bring him back. He was benched for a good chunk of time and is quite costly. Maybe I'd bring him back after the draft on a vet minimum deal if we had a spot available but I just don't see a point in keeping him around. Especially if we bring back CJGJ (which I think we should). You've seen the numbers if we cut him, even June 1. What if we can keep him at those same savings? You don't think he is good enough for depth? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Want A Title Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, idoubtit said: You've seen the numbers if we cut him, even June 1. What if we can keep him at those same savings? You don't think he is good enough for depth? I don't know what to think about the our group of safeties. The only player who played reasonably well was Ifeatu Melifonwu. Kerby Joseph seemed to improve prior to his injury but his play really regressed when he came back. There were times when Tracy Walker played well but when he was placed in deep coverage it didn't work out so well. We have heard the same thing about communication problems in the secondary for three years. Maybe the coaching change will help improve those problems. I do think Tracy Walker can be a solid contributor but he has be closer to the LOS or in the intermediate areas. His range doesn't seem to be great at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Tso Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, idoubtit said: You've seen the numbers if we cut him, even June 1. What if we can keep him at those same savings? You don't think he is good enough for depth? If we can't get a trade, we should just keep him for the depth but also probably trade a Safety Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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