2024 Survivor Pick'Em: It Just Doesn't Matter: You'll Lose

[Slappy Mc]

On 8/4/2024 at 5:46 PM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Slappy Mc (Washington): DET-HOU

Week 3: Tampa Bay over Denver

[Slappy Mc]

2 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

On 8/4/2024 at 5:46 PM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Slappy Mc (Washington): DET-HOU

Week 3: Tampa Bay over Denver

Calling an audible and going with Buffalo over Jacksonville. Too much traffic on that TB line.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I trimmed down my pick distribution in Week 3: TB-CINN-CLEV-NYJ

I considered Seattle, but Miami will be on long rest and they still have dynamic weapons on offense. Seattle hasnt looked incredible vs 2 teams I assumed would be pretty bad. I could easily see this being a get-up spot for Miami in a "Win one for Tua" moment. 

Raiders could be in a letdown spot vs a Panthers team that might be trying to save their season. I'm not saying Dalton is even an average QB but their offense could score more than they have the last 2 weeks combined (13) and that might be enough. 

49ers should win but man this is a tough game to truly handicap. 49ers are down CMC, Deebo and maybe Kittle too while the Rams are down Puka-Kupp. Shanahan has owned McVay but SF isnt nearly as incredible without Deebo and they have alot of future value so taking them on the road when they arent at the peak of the powers feels like a stay away

Just like the 49ers, I think the Bills win, maybe even cover the 5 vs the Jaguars but for some reason we seem to give Josh trouble. The Jaguars could possibly be 2-0 if not for a few things but it not sure its that easy. This feels like buying Buffalo at the top and selling Jacksonville at the bottom. 

What could go wrong/Why am I picking them?

I feel like if Baker plays a clean game TB should win. Bo Nix hasnt looked good and he hasnt had a good running game to lean on either. Now Vita Vea is out so the middle should there but I still think TB should be able to move the ball more consistently. Surtain is capable of shutting out 1 WR but the other plus McMillan should be plenty to move the ball plus the pass-catching RBs have some juice. TB in September will be awfully hot too(heat index 100)

CINN is in a crap or get off the pot situation. You cant go down 0-3 especially at home vs a rookie QB. Now that same dynamic QB does scare me as well as Cincy's inability to stop the run so I could see Daniels and BRob keeping this game close but when push comes to shove, I expect Cincy to score more and make better HT adjustments. Washington doesnt have the secondary nor the pass rush to really slow down the Bengals. Only way Cincy loses is if they beat themselves and cant stop the run and it might take both of those, not 1 to make them lose

CLEV scares me the most out of my 4 picks, maybe this is getting too cute. I dont see alot of future value on the schedule to use them in a better spot than this one as all their "winnable" games seem to be on the road. Watson is probably a better QB than Jones and his OL should be improving with their injured players coming back. Myles Garrett is hurt but it sounds like he will play. Garrett at 80% is still better than 95% of pass rushers in the league. The Browns should just be trying to run it down their throat. Giants have to win the turnover battle and get a big game from Nabers to have a chance.

Jets already won so there isnt a reason for me to break is down