AZBearsFan Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 54 minutes ago, WindyCity said: Here is what concerns me, you sign Paul Richardson or someone of that tier and they go full Marcus Cooper on you. Marcus Cooper was a young player, coming off a great year, and it turns out he sucks. That leave us in a rough spot with a 2nd year QB. There’s risk either way. Landry’s lack of speed really doesn’t fit the Nagy prototype though even if his ability to handle copious amounts of targets does. If you give him a market contract and he’s really 2017 and not 2016 Landry then that’s arguably worse long term for the team. At least with a Cooper type miss you can replace him in a year. I’d be surprised if Richardson gets guarantees of any consequence beyond the first year even if the overall number is big. Even at 4/40 with $14M guaranteed (which I don’t think he’ll get) you can give him something like a $10M roster bonus for 2018 with a minimum salary and include a $4M signing bonus and only be on the hook for a $3M dead cap hit if you cut him next offseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 12 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: There’s risk either way. Landry’s lack of speed really doesn’t fit the Nagy prototype though even if his ability to handle copious amounts of targets does. If you give him a market contract and he’s really 2017 and not 2016 Landry then that’s arguably worse long term for the team. At least with a Cooper type miss you can replace him in a year. I’d be surprised if Richardson gets guarantees of any consequence beyond the first year even if the overall number is big. Even at 4/40 with $14M guaranteed (which I don’t think he’ll get) you can give him something like a $10M roster bonus for 2018 with a minimum salary and include a $4M signing bonus and only be on the hook for a $3M dead cap hit if you cut him next offseason. I think the whole Landry lacks speed argument is overblown based on the fact that he ran a 4.7 40 at the combine. That was on a bum hamstring at the time. Don't be fooled. He is no scrub in this department and is definitely quick enough to play in this offense. My concern with him is more to do with the off the field/locker room stuff. The domestic violence allegations that were ultimately dropped are concerning and hopefully he's a guy that has learned from this and not to put himself in such situations going forward. If Pace and Nagy ultimately decide that he's worth the signing and price tag he will cost after doing their due diligence then hey I guess I'm all in. In Pace and Nagy I trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 There is financial risk to Landry, but he has a proven track record of 16 games and 1000 yards season. Obviously we want him to be 2016 and not 2017, but in terms of performance he is shockingly consistent. If Landry is 2017 then we are over paying him by 4-6 million, which is not cripppling. The risk with the others is performance which can screw Trubisky. Being able to cut Donte Moncrief after 1 year is great cap wise, but sucks if we are throwing passes to Gentry while we wait to cut him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 2 hours ago, WindyCity said: There is financial risk to Landry, but he has a proven track record of 16 games and 1000 yards season. Obviously we want him to be 2016 and not 2017, but in terms of performance he is shockingly consistent. If Landry is 2017 then we are over paying him by 4-6 million, which is not cripppling. The risk with the others is performance which can screw Trubisky. Being able to cut Donte Moncrief after 1 year is great cap wise, but sucks if we are throwing passes to Gentry while we wait to cut him. So our options are overpaying for a slot WR with no speed, hoping for 2nd tier FA to flourish in bigger roles, or drafting guys probably higher than we’d like and hoping they not only pan out but do so sooner than later. Pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said: So our options are overpaying for a slot WR with no speed, hoping for 2nd tier FA to flourish in bigger roles, or drafting guys probably higher than we’d like and hoping they not only pan out but do so sooner than later. Pick your poison. One of them comes with pretty much guaranteed production and all you are risking is money. The other 2 you are risking Trubiskys development in 2018. I am not doing that over money. Salary cap space is the least concerning risk involved in the scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 4 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: So our options are overpaying for a slot WR with no speed, hoping for 2nd tier FA to flourish in bigger roles, or drafting guys probably higher than we’d like and hoping they not only pan out but do so sooner than later. Pick your poison. AZ curious as to why you keep saying that Landry has no speed as if he's some complete sloth? Where are you getting this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 8 hours ago, topwop1 said: AZ curious as to why you keep saying that Landry has no speed as if he's some complete sloth? Where are you getting this from? I mean he’s not fast for an NFL WR. He doesn’t have a ton of straight line speed. He’s not a 4.7 guy like he timed his draft year, but he’s no faster than a 4.5 guy either to my eye when I watch him play. He’s an average speed WR. His speed isn’t a hindrance, but it’s not an asset either. That’s a list of the top 25 players last year in terms of targets. 20 are WR including Landry. Looking strictly at ability, of the other 19 WR on the list is there a single one where you can say with conviction that Landry is a superior player? I can’t, and that’s a list that doesn’t include several guys I’d also say are superior talents to Landry like Tyreek, Jordy, ODB & Allen Robinson. When we’re talking about giving a guy $12M+ annually for the next handful of years, that makes me really uncomfortable. On strictly ability, I’m not sure Landry is even among the top 25 WR in the league, and the factors other than his ability on game day aren’t in his favor either. Should we just ignore that Miami tried to trade him during the season like some expendable part and that he has a reputation for being a diva in the locker room? Landry just gives me a really strong buyer beware feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 7 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: I mean he’s not fast for an NFL WR. He doesn’t have a ton of straight line speed. He’s not a 4.7 guy like he timed his draft year, but he’s no faster than a 4.5 guy either to my eye when I watch him play. He’s an average speed WR. His speed isn’t a hindrance, but it’s not an asset either. That’s a list of the top 25 players last year in terms of targets. 20 are WR including Landry. Looking strictly at ability, of the other 19 WR on the list is there a single one where you can say with conviction that Landry is a superior player? I can’t, and that’s a list that doesn’t include several guys I’d also say are superior talents to Landry like Tyreek, Jordy, ODB & Allen Robinson. When we’re talking about giving a guy $12M+ annually for the next handful of years, that makes me really uncomfortable. On strictly ability, I’m not sure Landry is even among the top 25 WR in the league, and the factors other than his ability on game day aren’t in his favor either. Should we just ignore that Miami tried to trade him during the season like some expendable part and that he has a reputation for being a diva in the locker room? Landry just gives me a really strong buyer beware feeling. I am not sure he is better than a number of guys on the list, but he is more productive and more consistent than a bunch of them and that counts for more than a subjective ranking based on feel. This is about availability. Most of that list are not available. Most of that list are never going to be available. Most of that list makes more than 12-13 a year. The guys that do not like Mike Evans are talking about being paid 20/year when their deals come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 13-14 a season is what "I am not sure if they are a #1" guys are getting paid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 Antonio Brown [17/season] and DeAndre Hopkins [16.2] are the only "elite" WRs that have signed extensions in the last calendar year. Neither even hit the open market and make way more than 13-14 a season. A.J Green [15 million], Julio [14.25], Demaryus Thomas [14], Dez Bryant [14] all signed their deals 2 years ago and inflation alone would move them significantly above that number. My guess is if either had hit the open market they would have been 18-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 8 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: I mean he’s not fast for an NFL WR. He doesn’t have a ton of straight line speed. He’s not a 4.7 guy like he timed his draft year, but he’s no faster than a 4.5 guy either to my eye when I watch him play. He’s an average speed WR. His speed isn’t a hindrance, but it’s not an asset either. That’s a list of the top 25 players last year in terms of targets. 20 are WR including Landry. Looking strictly at ability, of the other 19 WR on the list is there a single one where you can say with conviction that Landry is a superior player? I can’t, and that’s a list that doesn’t include several guys I’d also say are superior talents to Landry like Tyreek, Jordy, ODB & Allen Robinson. When we’re talking about giving a guy $12M+ annually for the next handful of years, that makes me really uncomfortable. On strictly ability, I’m not sure Landry is even among the top 25 WR in the league, and the factors other than his ability on game day aren’t in his favor either. Should we just ignore that Miami tried to trade him during the season like some expendable part and that he has a reputation for being a diva in the locker room? Landry just gives me a really strong buyer beware feeling. Yes as of right now he is IMO a superior player to Funchess, Anderson, Demaryius, Dez and Thielen. As for the trade rumors and off-field issues/reputation of being a locker room diva type of guy, I share the same concerns as you, and that's why I am a bit hesitant as well. That said, when you look at what the market has to offer, Landry will probably end up being the best of the bunch, and for a team like the Bears who can use as much help as they can to give Trubisky key play makers, I don't think it would be the worst move seeing that they will have ample cap space to sign a guy like Landry to a heavily front loaded deal that shouldn't hinder the teams ability to sign key [players in other areas 2-3 years down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 For me it is just about consistency and I am willing to pay for it. Marquise Lee, Paul Richardson could very easily flop. They have very little in terms of consistent production in the NFL and Richardson has major health concerns. In fact both profile similar to Markus Wheaton in terms of body of work. I know Landry won't flop, that has value to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 Based on their career numbers [catch %, YPC, TDs/catch] and based on 124 targets, which is the most of a WR in the Reid era in KC the following free agent/recently re-signed WRs would produce Landry, 88 catches, 889 yards, 5 TDs Davante Adams, 73 catches, 870 yards, 8 TDs Allen Robinson, 65.7 catches, 926 yards, 7 TDs Sammy Watkins, 55.7 catches, 885 yards, 7 TDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 hour ago, WindyCity said: For me it is just about consistency and I am willing to pay for it. Marquise Lee, Paul Richardson could very easily flop. They have very little in terms of consistent production in the NFL and Richardson has major health concerns. In fact both profile similar to Markus Wheaton in terms of body of work. I know Landry won't flop, that has value to me. Didn't Lee lead the league in WR drops last year? That kind of inconsistency is what would deter me from signing him over the others. If he struggles catching all his targets in warm sunny Florida weather then I can't imagine that will improve in Chicago. As you can tell, I'm not as high on Lee as others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 2 hours ago, topwop1 said: Didn't Lee lead the league in WR drops last year? That kind of inconsistency is what would deter me from signing him over the others. If he struggles catching all his targets in warm sunny Florida weather then I can't imagine that will improve in Chicago. As you can tell, I'm not as high on Lee as others. That is what I am talking about when you move into the 2nd tier. Lee is inconsistent, but is one of the only guys in the 2nd teir that is coming off of back to back some what productive seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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