rcon14 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, packfanfb said: Most of this is probably true in the larger sense in terms of "premium" positions in the draft versus "non-premium" positions, as long as we don't live in the world of "never" because that is asinine. The Bears don't have a great defense for years and make it to the NFCCG in 2010 without drafting Brian Urlacher 9th overall. That's just one example. Moreover, teams that haven't made it to the Super Bowl and therefore are not accounted for in your example may have 1,000,000 reason why that did not happen other than the fact that they may have drafted a "non-premium" player in the top-15 in the last 10 years. Is the reason the Bengals haven't went to a SB because they drafted A.J. Green 4th overall in 2011? Probably not. If anything, Green has made the Bengals a better team over that period of time, and whether they instead drafted a "premium position" player like Patrick Peterson (who went one pick later) probably has zero impact at the end of the day on whether the Bengals go to a SB between then and now. It's perfectly fine to draft an ILB, WR and to a lesser extent IOL in the 1st round (even high in the first round) if he's the best player available at that slot for that team on any given year. To say otherwise for example would be to say guys like Roquan Smith (last year) and Devin White (this year) shouldn't even be on our board for the No. 12 pick. That's just crazy. They aren't at the very top of your board and you want the EDGE player or perhaps another "premium" position player to be there, but it doesn't always work out that way. /whispers Neither Smith nor White should be on our board at pick 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, packfanfb said: Moreover, teams that haven't made it to the Super Bowl and therefore are not accounted for in your example may have Lions, for example: IOL ILBOTIOL TEEDGE OTDL DL QBTEOTWR ILB WR WR WR 10 of their last 17 first round picks have been non-premium. Is it any wonder why their three playoff appearances came during the gap in their awful drafting when they actually went value? Challenge me. Give me a team to look into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 Also, Devin White is a 2 down ILB. We literally already have that on our roster. In today's NFL, do you really want to draft a player who will be on the field for two downs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: Also, Devin White is a 2 down ILB. We literally already have that on our roster. In today's NFL, do you really want to draft a player who will be on the field for two downs? I disagree. We'll see what he runs at the combine and his agility scores. The guy can move and hold up inside. Looks pretty complete to me. Bottom-line, my entire point is that the guy is a good football player and would make any team better. Absent a poor combine, someone will likely draft him in the top 15. A great combine probably gets him into the 10 area. You seem to get way too caught up in position value to the point where you say guys at certain positions should never be drafted in certain slots. There is no amount of evidence anywhere to begin to prove that point. It's all relative, based on team need and based on the player itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, packfanfb said: I disagree. We'll see what he runs at the combine and his agility scores. The guy can move and hold up inside. Looks pretty complete to me. Bottom-line, my entire point is that the guy is a good football player and would make any team better. Absent a poor combine, someone will likely draft him in the top 15. A great combine probably gets him into the 10 area. You seem to get way too caught up in position value to the point where you say guys at certain positions should never be drafted in certain slots. There is no amount of evidence anywhere to begin to prove that point. It's all relative, based on team need and based on the player itself. Yup, someone will draft him in the top 15. Just like someone drafted Leonard Fournette and Saquon Barkley in the top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: Lions, for example: IOL ILBOTIOL TEEDGE OTDL DL QBTEOTWR ILB WR WR WR 10 of their last 17 first round picks have been non-premium. Is it any wonder why their three playoff appearances came during the gap in their awful drafting when they actually went value? Challenge me. Give me a team to look into. You talk about this like it's a science. Again, what about the 100 other variables that could explain why the Lions or the 31 other teams played well in one particular year, or 5 years or 10 years. What we're arguing is essentially meaningless at the end of the day because it is inherently based on an opinion or bias. Again, I agree generally in the "premium" vs. "non-premium" trends, but if all GMs thought like you did, why would anyone ever draft a "non-premium" player in the top 15? Are these guys just idiots? Or, if you want to keep going, go ahead and pick any team you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 why did this team not win a superbowl Houston Texans Year No. Round Pick Player Name Position College 2018 1 3 4 68 Justin Reid DB Stanford 2017 1 1 12 12 Deshaun Watson QB Clemson 2016 1 1 21 21 Will Fuller WR Notre Dame 2015 1 1 16 16 Kevin Johnson DB Wake Forest 2014 1 1 1 1 Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina 2013 1 1 27 27 DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson 2012 1 1 26 26 Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois 2011 1 1 11 11 J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin 2010 1 1 20 20 Kareem Jackson DB Alabama 2009 1 1 15 15 Brian Cushing LB USC 2008 1 1 26 26 Duane Brown T Virginia Tech 2007 1 1 10 10 Amobi Okoye DT Louisville 2006 1 1 1 1 Mario Williams DE North Carolina State 2005 1 1 16 16 Travis Johnson DT Florida State 2004 1 1 10 10 Dunta Robinson DB South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, rcon14 said: Yup, someone will draft him in the top 15. Just like someone drafted Leonard Fournette and Saquon Barkley in the top 5. Ahh, so now the Jags and Giants aren't going to a SB in the next 5 years because they drafted Fournette and Barkley....got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, packfanfb said: You seem to get way too caught up in position value to the point where you say guys at certain positions should never be drafted in certain slots. There is no amount of evidence anywhere to begin to prove that point. It's all relative, based on team need and based on the player itself. Set the parameters. Set the challenge. What would it take to convince you? Let's say: If no team since the Merger has won a Super Bowl after drafting an IOL top 20 up to 5 years before their Super Bowl win, would you accept that it's not something you should do? There have been a LOT of high quality IOL. Surely if it was okay to use up that kind of draft capital, there'd be an example where it worked. Wouldn't there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, packfanfb said: Ahh, so now the Jags and Giants aren't going to a SB in the next 5 years because they drafted Fournette and Barkley....got it. I didn't say that. But it is pretty clearly a poor decision making process to take a low-value position in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 How about this team? Dallas Cowboys Year No. Round Pick Player Name Position College 2018 1 1 19 19 Leighton Vander Esch LB Boise State 2017 1 1 28 28 Taco Charlton DE Michigan 2016 1 1 4 4 Ezekiel Elliott RB Ohio State 2015 1 1 27 27 Byron Jones DB Connecticut 2014 1 1 16 16 Zack Martin T Notre Dame 2013 1 1 31 31 Travis Frederick C Wisconsin 2012 1 1 6 6 Morris Claiborne DB Louisiana State 2011 1 1 9 9 Tyron Smith T USC 2010 1 1 24 24 Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State 2008 1 1 22 22 Felix Jones RB Arkansas 2007 1 1 26 26 Anthony Spencer DE Purdue 2006 1 1 18 18 Bobby Carpenter LB Ohio State 2005 1 1 11 11 Demarcus Ware DE Troy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, rcon14 said: I didn't say that. But it is pretty clearly a poor decision making process to take a low-value position in the first round. Maybe Fournette. Barkley is a dynamic player who is much more than just a RB (had 91 receptions this year) and at that position, the only other play for the Giants was QB. I would have taken Barkley over Ward, Chubb, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBURGE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, rcon14 said: I didn't say that. But it is pretty clearly a poor decision making process to take a low-value position in the first round. I think there are cases where taking a RB in the top 5 is worth it. Zeke, Bark, Gurley if he was healthy... These are elite prospects and hard misses. There are also Fournette's who look like they likely own't be a top tier back, and the Trent RIchardson's... even in today's NFL backs have value, and elite ones can drive an offense. I don't have a problem with it, the only issue is when you have such a huge need at QB and pass on one for a RB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, packfanfb said: You talk about this like it's a science. Yes, that's literally my point. I have provided a hypotheses. I have been testing that hypotheses. So far, nobody has been able to disprove it. That's literally how science works. I have LITERALLY been treating this like a science, and that is LITERALLY what I'm providing. Scientific methods to point to success in the NFL. Just like Moneyball type analytics in baseball. I've asked the question. I've formulated hypotheses. I've collected data, and I am drawing conclusions. In order to have a conversation, you need to actually provide countering viewpoints and evidence to suggest I'm wrong. If you can't find any evidence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, packfanfb said: Maybe Fournette. Barkley is a dynamic player who is much more than just a RB (had 91 receptions this year) and at that position, the only other play for the Giants was QB. I would have taken Barkley over Ward, Chubb, etc. The thing with RB is it isn't just about the player. It's about replacability. It's easy to go find competent RBs. It is really hard to find competent players at the premium positions. It's also very easy to pay for RBs. They are cheap. Paying for premium position players is expensive and the draft provides you with cost control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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