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Karnage84

EARLY DRAFT GRADES FOR THE 2019 CLASS

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28 minutes ago, NFL_Fan said:

So after watching the Bob Quin presser. I think I'm a little less upset at the picks...Not the guys we want...but think why do we want them? cause they were hyped up by guys that have never even played.

 

So wth TJ. Ill give an A.

Safest pick in the draft. Will produce 100%. Checks off so many things. 

Need for TE

Can catch

Can run good routes and run after the catch

Can block (when was the last time we could enjoy a nice outside handoff and not lose 2 yards? )

Passionate

Not a Diva

Produced

 

Second pick was a shock...but like BQ said...when you are looking for a certain guy for a defense only a few are around...yeah they have big names...but no sense in having Clay Mathews or Von Miller in a 4-3 OLB when they could dominate in a 3-4 olb...so Im hoping he will be out new Mike and Jarrad goes outside with Christian Jones and the otherr guy I forget. 

3rd rd

I like. was captain of very talented team. Can hit and play all the spots. and great size.

 

rest are all guesses but I like the spots they addressed. Im sure they will be trading for a young versatile lineman to fill th spot at guard really soon. 

Who are you and what have you done with @NFL_Fan???

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I don't know how to feel about this draft, it feels like a whatever draft. think we could have traded down and got hock, ill give the draft a solid C+, I hope we don't regret passing on Oliver.

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2 minutes ago, flyguy1609 said:

I don't know how to feel about this draft, it feels like a whatever draft. think we could have traded down and got hock, ill give the draft a solid C+, I hope we don't regret passing on Oliver.

but just think TJ will only build the locker room...only build leadership. Probably be a pro bowler by year 3..Who could we trade down with to get that pick? why would any team trade up? only guy wworth it was Oliver...and so many people even said. Can he play with his hands? Also. where would he play on this defense? RE? NT? DT when were in Base 4-3 rarely? 3 tech in nickel formation. Maybe they saw him being on the field like 50% of TJ that can play four downs...and can create a mismatch with a LB...Oliver would be better in Pittsburg or Houston between like Watt and Clowney....not try and takes Snacks spot...which wont happen..

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trust me as far as talent goes. i do like oliver...bunch of fun prospects. But can only pick one. and it already happened. so might as well support now or jump ship (:

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The best TE of all time made less than $10M a year.  A very good DE who is versatile and had 7 sacks last year got $18M a year from us. That's the value of a TE.  If they were that valuable, they would be paid more.  Pass rushers and run stoppers have so much more impact on the game where even if Oliver is solid and TJ is the best ever, Oliver would still have more value on the open market.  TJ will have to be the best TE in the league by year 3 for us to pick up the 5th year option which will likely make him the highest paid TE in the league.  Drafting a TE at 8 is stupid both in team impact and financially.  There is no excuse for it and there is no way a TE picked that high should get anything other than a D grade.  I have heard all the things before about how no TE prospect has been this good.  They say it every time a TE goes early and it never works out how people imagine because they just don't have that type of impact.

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25 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

The best TE of all time made less than $10M a year.  A very good DE who is versatile and had 7 sacks last year got $18M a year from us. That's the value of a TE.  If they were that valuable, they would be paid more.  Pass rushers and run stoppers have so much more impact on the game where even if Oliver is solid and TJ is the best ever, Oliver would still have more value on the open market.  TJ will have to be the best TE in the league by year 3 for us to pick up the 5th year option which will likely make him the highest paid TE in the league.  Drafting a TE at 8 is stupid both in team impact and financially.  There is no excuse for it and there is no way a TE picked that high should get anything other than a D grade.  I have heard all the things before about how no TE prospect has been this good.  They say it every time a TE goes early and it never works out how people imagine because they just don't have that type of impact.

I guess the saving grace of all of this is that when he gets into his 2nd contract there shouldn't be a huge jump in cap hit vs an Ed Oliver types.

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2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I guess the saving grace of all of this is that when he gets into his 2nd contract there shouldn't be a huge jump in cap hit vs an Ed Oliver types.

My guess is we will move on like we did Ebron because no TE is worth $10M a year. So its pretty much a 4 year deal, and TE's tend to take the longest to adapt so, we might get 2 decent years out of him.

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1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

My guess is we will move on like we did Ebron because no TE is worth $10M a year. So its pretty much a 4 year deal, and TE's tend to take the longest to adapt so, we might get 2 decent years out of him.

Assuming that he works out and is in the Ertz category as a top 5 TE, he'll probably re-sign with an escalating contract like Kelce did (his cap hit was $2M, then $5M, then $10M). If that's the case, we're going to get about 8 years out of him.

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2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

The best TE of all time made less than $10M a year.  A very good DE who is versatile and had 7 sacks last year got $18M a year from us. That's the value of a TE.  If they were that valuable, they would be paid more.  Pass rushers and run stoppers have so much more impact on the game where even if Oliver is solid and TJ is the best ever, Oliver would still have more value on the open market.  TJ will have to be the best TE in the league by year 3 for us to pick up the 5th year option which will likely make him the highest paid TE in the league.  Drafting a TE at 8 is stupid both in team impact and financially.  There is no excuse for it and there is no way a TE picked that high should get anything other than a D grade.  I have heard all the things before about how no TE prospect has been this good.  They say it every time a TE goes early and it never works out how people imagine because they just don't have that type of impact.

well it already happened and everyone will continue to make millions while you cry...so  I wouldn't cloud your mind with bitterness. We just got a better Kittle. You still never answered my question as to where Oliver would even play....back up to snacks? take snaps from a'shawn? be a rusher on the edge. cause thats a joke...so it leaves him at 3 tech or nose...we dont need either...so that leaves bush...obviously they got a great look and think someone else would work better in "their" defense....remember its theirs...not yours...if you know so much why you sitting on the computer. you should be a scout since you know everything. 

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personally i like having a 4 down player in the first. then a guy coming off the bench.

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2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

My guess is we will move on like we did Ebron because no TE is worth $10M a year. So its pretty much a 4 year deal, and TE's tend to take the longest to adapt so, we might get 2 decent years out of him.

lol dont disrespect T.J. like that. like comparing a delicious apple to a tart grapefruit with no sugar...

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1 hour ago, NFL_Fan said:

well it already happened and everyone will continue to make millions while you cry...so  I wouldn't cloud your mind with bitterness. We just got a better Kittle. You still never answered my question as to where Oliver would even play....back up to snacks? take snaps from a'shawn? be a rusher on the edge. cause thats a joke...so it leaves him at 3 tech or nose...we dont need either...so that leaves bush...obviously they got a great look and think someone else would work better in "their" defense....remember its theirs...not yours...if you know so much why you sitting on the computer. you should be a scout since you know everything. 

Oliver is versatile, and would IMO be a 3 down player although we rotate a lot.  in a 3-4/5 set he would be a DE or OLB, he could play DE in a 4-3/2 set and move inside on passing downs.  Its been discussed previously how versatile he is and how athletic he is.  This is their defense, where versatile edge guys get 18 Mil a year like Flowers did for 7 sacks.  Getting that type of player for 8th overall pick money is a steal. 

And your right, none of us are scouts so we should just stop talking about the draft.  If we were, we would be working in the league right?  As you should since you know so much yourself.  Such a poor argument. 

Either way, I look at trends and past successes to look at players.  Not 1 TE since Tony Gonzales in 1995 that has been drafted in the first has been worth a first round pick in production or impact.  There have been 3 TE's in that span that might be worth a first round pick but are not worth a top 10 pick (Gronk, Gates, Gonzales).  And people who say Gronk would have been worth a top 10 pick, I disagree based on contracts and impact.  Its just dumb business.  And although I may not be a socut in the league, I am assuming those others that drafted first round TEs because they were special are no longer scouts in this league either.

 

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1 hour ago, NFL_Fan said:

lol dont disrespect T.J. like that. like comparing a delicious apple to a tart grapefruit with no sugar...

What are your honest thoughts about his production?  I am think 500-600 yards and 3-6 TDs in each of the first two years, then maybe jump up to 700-800 and 4-8?  That would make him one of the most successful first round TEs ever if he could do it consistently.  There are outliers in there like Eifert's 13TDs with 700 yards in year three but that obviously wasn't who he really was.

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4 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

What are your honest thoughts about his production?  I am think 500-600 yards and 3-6 TDs in each of the first two years, then maybe jump up to 700-800 and 4-8?  That would make him one of the most successful first round TEs ever if he could do it consistently.  There are outliers in there like Eifert's 13TDs with 700 yards in year three but that obviously wasn't who he really was.

On an optimistic basis, 500 yards and 4-5 TD's as a rookie would be a spectacular year for a rookie TE. 600 - 700 and 6 TD's year 2; 800 yards and 8 - 10 TD's year 3 and subsequent years after that. The biggest impact should be on the run game.

If he played a full 16 games, KJ was on track for 189 attempts for 1,025 yards and 5 TD's. 5.4 YPC is unsustainable and he's probably going to be looking at 150 - 160 carries. However, his TD numbers could increase and we could still see some decent yardage despite the decreased workload.

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7 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

The best TE of all time made less than $10M a year.  A very good DE who is versatile and had 7 sacks last year got $18M a year from us. That's the value of a TE.  If they were that valuable, they would be paid more.  Pass rushers and run stoppers have so much more impact on the game where even if Oliver is solid and TJ is the best ever, Oliver would still have more value on the open market.  TJ will have to be the best TE in the league by year 3 for us to pick up the 5th year option which will likely make him the highest paid TE in the league.  Drafting a TE at 8 is stupid both in team impact and financially.  There is no excuse for it and there is no way a TE picked that high should get anything other than a D grade.  I have heard all the things before about how no TE prospect has been this good.  They say it every time a TE goes early and it never works out how people imagine because they just don't have that type of impact.

To be fair, TE was one of the few positions that didn't get to reset the market. Currently Kelce makes 10.3 and that contract is a few years old, so the next top TE will likely get 12 or more. Yes, a DE is still more surplus value, but only if they're good. There are not a ton of DEs out there worth more than 12 mil 

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