BDL 2019 Week 8 - New Orleans Jazz @ Cuba Smugglers

[TedLavie]

BDL 2019 Week 8

Match:  New Orleans Jazz @ Cuba Smugglers

Away Owner: @WFLukic

Home Owner: @MD4L

Vote for who you think will win this game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

Edited October 28, 2019 by TedLavie

[TedLavie]

New Orleans

Offense:

QB: Josh Allen
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR1: Michael Thomas
WR2: Tyler Lockett
WR3: D.J. Moore
TE: Zach Ertz
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Joel Bitonio
C: Travis Frederick
RG: Kevin Zeitler
RT: Riley Reiff

RB2: LeSean McCoy
RB3: Duke Johnson
WR4: Deebo Samuel
WR5: Zay Jones
TE2: Mike Gesicki
TE3: Tyler Kroft
OL6: Bobby Massie
OL7: Connor McGovern

Defense:

DE: Nick Bosa
DT: Geno Atkins
DT: Calais Campbell
DE: Cameron Jordan
LB: Danny Trevathan
LB/S: Haha Clinton-Dix
CB: Stephon Gilmore
CB: Kyle Fuller
NB: Chris Harris Jr.
SS: Micah Hyde
FS: Darnell Savage

DE3: Josh Allen
DE4: Olivier Vernon
DT3: Jeffery Simmons
DT4: Johnathan Hankins
LB3: Alexander Johnson
S4: Tedric Thompson
CB4: JC Jackson
CB5: Duke Dawson

 

Cuba

QB: DeShaun Watson
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Brandin Cooks
WR: DJ Chark
TE: Jesse James 
LT: Anthony Castonzo
LG: Elgton Jenkins 
C: Ryan Jensen 
RG: David DeCastro
RT: Rob Havenstein 

RB: James Williams 
WR: Kenny Stills
WR: Ted Ginn Jr.
TE: Mo Alie-Cox
RB: Damien Williams
OW: Taysom Hill
OL: Cam Erving
OL: Laken Tomlinson

Edge: Arik Armstead
DT: Jarran Reed
NT: Fletcher Cox
Edge: Denico Autry
MLB: Eric Kendricks 
SLB: Kyle Van Noy 
RCB: Trae Waynes
NCB: Kenny Moore
FS: Rodney McLeod 
SS: Tyrann Mathieu 
LCB: Richard Sherman

DT: Jurrell Casey 
DT: Adam Butler
Edge: Jerry Hughes 
WLB: KJ Wright 
SLB: De’Vondre Campbell 
NCB: Kevin Johnson 
RCB: Morris Claiborne 
S: Khari Willis

Edited October 28, 2019 by TedLavie

[TedLavie]

New Orleans

Offense:

This week we are messing with a winning formula and we’re going to make the passing game our focus, with Allen airing it out to take advantage of a pedestrian Cuba secondary.

Run Game:

The run game will be used to complement the pass rather than set it up this week. Elliott reprise his role as our lead back and should get around 15 carries and a bit of action in the passing game as a check-down option. Johnson and McCoy will split around 8 or so carries between them and should have a few looks in the passing game too, particularly Johnson as he’ll be motioned wide to feature in 4 or 5 WR sets.

2 TE sets will be used with moderate frequency and will primarily be a play-action look. Most of the tape of New Orleans in a 2 TE look is in the running game, however this will be a receiving set for this game.

In particular we plan to utilise Ertz and the newly acquired Gesicki quite often in this game – regardless of whether Cuba comes out in man or zone. Why?

1.       If Man - their substantial height advantage over who will be covering them. McLeod and Mathieu are both shorter than 6 foot while Eric Kendricks is exactly 6 foot. Gesicki and Ertz on the other hand are both 6’5/6’6. Assuming McLeod stays deep because of the threat of our outside WRs in Thomas and Lockett, it means Mathieu and Kendricks will be on either of these guys. We’re happy to toss it up to whoever gets Mathieu as the size mismatch will simply be too great.

2.       If Zone – both will be able to find a way to get open. Ertz is obviously a great route runner, but Gesicki’s struggles have largely come as a result of being unable to beat being jammed at the LOS. He won’t have this problem in zone and should be able to use his HWS and catch radius to take advantage of this, particularly in the flats where a CB or Mathieu will likely be.

Despite bringing in reinforcements, we’re not concerned about the Cuba corner group and are happy to go after them. Trae Waynes has allowed more receptions than anyone else in the league and while Sherman is still good, he only covers the left half of the field. So our solution is to move Thomas around, with around 75% of his snaps on the right half of the field away from Sherman and targeting him heavily there, while Lockett takes the left side on these and largely works deep. Moore when on the field will also move around quite often, with a focus on working the middle against Cuba’s zone if they opt to go with a zone look, or a fuller route tree against someone like Claiborne or Burns who he can toast if in man.

Also our first play of the game will be Allen way overthrowing Lockett. Gotta let them know the dragon is there.

Defense:

Cuba save for tight-end has a weapon group as good as anyone else’s at the moment. However, Watson has a weakness and that’s facing pressure. He dominates when he’s kept clean and struggles when he’s not. Thing is, we have both he talent at the top end and depth in our pass-rush to continually get wins and keep him on the move.

We actually plan to adopt a lot of the schemes which Hungary had put in place last week, namely some of cover 3 concepts with outside press and our intention is to limit the quick strike while our 4 man rush is able to get on top of Cuba’s OL and get to Watson.

Firstly, we plan to rotate heavily on the defensive line to help limit the run given how good Cook has been this year. Simmons given his dominant debut will see an uptick in snaps, while Allen and Vernon will play around 30-35% of the snaps at defensive end. Hankins and Simmons will see a greater number of earlier down snaps, with Campbell sliding out to defensive end on these and Alexander Johnson coming in for Clinton-Dix.

Additionally, the more Cuba uses their TE as a blocker, the more snaps Allen will come in for Clinton-Dix and serve as a fifth pass-rusher.  

In terms of coverage, Gilmore will follow Julio around largely playing man on him, while Harris and Fuller both play a press of sorts, jamming at the line before retreating, with the intention of taking away quick strikes and hampering Cuba's route development and timing. Clinton-Dix will cover more of the intermediate level with the aim of playing for intercepts, while Trevathan takes the LOS zone and spies Watson while Hyde moves into the flats on the side that Harris isn’t on. Savage, who hopefully returns, will serve as our deep safety and should do so effectively given his range.

If Savage does not play:

In the event that Savage is out, in short we go to a man scheme with Allen coming in for Savage and serving as our LEO. We’ll then rush 5 fairly often against Cuba’s front 6, while the man assignments are:

Gilmore – Jones
Fuller – Chark
Harris Jr. - Cooks
Hyde – Cook
Trevathan – James

 

Cuba

Intro: Weve played some terrific teams lately and New Orleans continues the trend. They’re a talented roster and Lukic is arguably the best owner at finding young talent. This team deserves our attention and we plan to treat them as if they are one of the best teams in BDL.

Offense: We have a geninue respect for
Lukic’s ability to find and develop talent. This is one matchup where Julio’s target share can decrease in isolated coverage. We expect this defense to be in man coverage but teams have an affinity to play cover 3. We’ve got plans for both but there’s a real expectation we’ll deal with cover one. Gilmore is the guy we expect to matchup with Julio hence the lesser target share. In any other event, Julio is ripe for his usual 12-14 targets even if he faces double coverage.

New Orleans might be the hardest defense to gameplan for but they’ve got some spots that can be targeted. Their biggest weakness is defending pass catching backs. Danny Travathan can cover guys well but Dalvin Cook is as tough a matchup as any RB in the NFL. The other addition we want frequently involved is another RB to play with Cook. Jamaal Williams is perfect for the role as he’s developed a consistent spot in the receiving game. New Orleans will have a talented safety to help Travathan cover an RB or TE. What this should do is open DJ Chark or Brandin Cooks in isolated coverage. Chris Harris is a terrific NCB, but Chark did have a solid game when they met up which included a TD pass called on a penalty. If Harris matches Cooks or Chark that’s a matchup we want to target on multiple occasions. The greatest liability of an elite secondary is Kyle Fuller. He’s taken number one responsibility for Chicago and struggled a bit. Our receivers are considered number one weapons so that is the second matchup we believe can reap major success for DeShaun Watson. We don’t anticipate targeting Fuller’s match relentlessly, but for the 8-10 targets he’ll receive we think there’s an opportunity for success, especially as our 2 RBs sets create one on one coverage.

We’re going to utilize workhorse Dalvin Cook as he’s effectively been matchup proof this season. His ability as a receiver isn’t forgotten at all. Counters, toss play, flare routes are possible for YAC opportunities. Jamaal Williams is a nice matchup to be accounted for. We think Williams biggest ability is making Jordan Poyer or Haha Clinton Dix at safety account for his real threat. Jesse James or whomever is our 6th person at the line will be helpful for an outstanding pass rush. We aren’t going to completely sabatoge the TEs route so he’ll chip before running for a pass. The 3rd receiver Louisiana accounts for is the most targeted weapon. We would like to target the weapon Haha Clinton Dix isn’t helping especially in the situations that it’s Kyle Fuller isolated in coverage. If we had to suggest the target share leader it would likely be DJ Chark. 

To beat man coverage, we plan on stacking the receivers and using pick opportunities on bunch formations that will open players for shorter targets. This pass rush is very good but they lack a sheer run defender who can consistently occupy two guys in that area. Additionally with Cook having the ability to churn yards with occasional huge plays we think there’s a chance we own the advantage in time of possession which should help our teams chances considering the volume that would lead towards in terms of the weapons we have getting enough chances to contribute. We can run some 10 formations because Stills and Ginn are guys that stretch the field. JC Jackson has had some penalty issues so this could be an opportunity to press the issue on New Orleans pass rush. We might run 4 WRs on about 10 snaps. We can audible to Dalvin Cook as a nice resource of offense while moving someone from the box. 5 of those plays will be runs. 

Defense
This offense is also very good, but they might be a bit more cautious after both passers have had flashes of high level play with slightly below average performances. They’ve got some weapons that can break big plays but we think the biggest thing is stopping Zeke Elliot. 

We’ve effectively revamped our starting edge defenders this week for their mass to stop New Orleans offensive line from making it easy for Ezekiel Elliot. Arik Armstead will replace Jerry Hughes as a starter. He’s been one of the best run defenders in football and his length should help for some of the counters or TE help to overpower our right side. We’ll throw Denico Autry across from Armstead as we’ve now got two big edge rushers against the run without totally compromising our pass rush. Jarran Reed, Jurrell Casey, and Fletcher Cox are the true pass rushers so we aren’t completely compromised in that regard. Hughes remains an active part of our defense despite losing his starter position. We can move Van Noy from LB to edge and have those guys surround the depth of players we can rotate inside with for obvious passing downs. Josh Allen is a threat with his legs so Van Noy should have an active game playing near the LOS regardless of his multiple positions. 

This teams owns three dynamic weapons for its QB, and Michael Thomas leads the group. We don’t anticipate shadowing so Trae Waynes can play zone coverages with occasional help on his side. Sherman has proven to be a great #1 CB because he limits targets and allows a low amount of completions. We like making sure Waynes has deep help for his first game. McCloud and Mathieu will share that responsibility.  

Our main defense is starting off in a cover 2. Our starting CBs each are considered among the top trackers at the position. Kenny Moore may press’s the issue a bit more as a blitzer, so our starting CBs have more run responsibility in the early going. Our second coverage would like be man coverage across the board. It’ll be useful to help Waynes but we’re going to have KJ Wright and Tyrann focus on Zach Ertz. His ability to win in the middle of the field is important as we analyze areas of strength for Josh Allen. Taking away his safety blanket may force more deep threats which is what our gameplan wants to focus upon. If Allen routinely hits big plays we’re going to accept that as a trade for eliminating his short target that would allow New Orleans to operate as a ball control offense.

Edited October 28, 2019 by TedLavie

[WFLukic]

Wow dope gameplan @MD4L

This should be a great match. Good luck bro. 

[VigilantZombie]

So glad Lukic did not start Simmons. I watched that game yesterday, I'm not gonna lie, I would've docked you for that. He played good but man, he is completely out of shape. He was gasping for air in the first quarter.

[MD4L]

12 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

Wow dope gameplan @MD4L

This should be a great match. Good luck bro. 

Always good matching up with the best.

[Jlash]

1 hour ago, TedLavie said:

Watson has a weakness and that’s facing pressure. He dominates when he’s kept clean and struggles when he’s not.

How is this still a narrative?? The guy has had horrific protection since he's gotten into the league and is still an elite QB.

[VigilantZombie]

12 minutes ago, Jlash said:

How is this still a narrative?? The guy has had horrific protection since he's gotten into the league and is still an elite QB.

He has also played better since Tunsil has arrived.

[Jlash]

1 hour ago, TedLavie said:

In terms of coverage, Gilmore will follow Julio around largely playing man on him, while Harris and Fuller both play a press of sorts, jamming at the line before retreating

@WFLukic You sure you know what cover 3 is? Because having 1 guy play strictly man, and two others play a zone can create some horrendous gaps in coverage. What if Fuller and Harris' men line up on the same side of the field? They'd both then be dropping back to cover the same 1/3 of the field, leaving the far third completely uncovered in that zone.  Maybe I'm confused.

[WFLukic]

3 minutes ago, Jlash said:

@WFLukic You sure you know what cover 3 is? Because having 1 guy play strictly man, and two others play a zone can create some horrendous gaps in coverage. What if Fuller and Harris' men line up on the same side of the field? They'd both then be dropping back to cover the same 1/3 of the field, leaving the far third completely uncovered in that zone.  Maybe I'm confused.

Which is why we're adopting some of the concepts, not the entire defense for every snap. In any case, say we go with your hypothetical - the deep corner gets left relatively unguarded. So a deep crossing route from a WR could technically exploit it, or I guess if a receiving back blows by the defender goes into the flat on that side. The latter could hurt us if Savage/Clinton-Dix aren't able to close out quick enough, but the former wouldn't be an issue because the Savage and Clinton-Dix would obviously lean towards the empty space when Harris and Fuller drop back and the route would take a while to develop. I mean, do you really think Harris and Fuller are going to stand 2 feet from each other with the safeties a few yards away? Almost all of these guys are all-pros/pro-bowlers, they're smart enough to make some minor adjustments. 

20 minutes ago, Jlash said:

How is this still a narrative?? The guy has had horrific protection since he's gotten into the league and is still an elite QB.

Look at his performances this year. He's not excelled against teams which are able to generate sustained pressure with their front 4 (Jax, Indy, Carolina). I mean I guess you could say that about most QBs but he's also pretty reliant on rhythm and timing given his arm isn't the strongest, so preventing him from having this time to get set is probably the most effective way to unsettle him and force turnovers.  

[WFLukic]

I can't draw a diagram because I'm at work but lets say your regular cover 3 looks like this at the back: 

_ _ _CB_ _ _ FS _ _ _ CB _ _ _ 

What would happen in this circumstance is: 

_ _ KF _ _ CHJ  _ _ _  DS _ _ _ _ _

So Fuller and CHJ would roughly be responsible for  one half, while Savage would be over more to the far side and tasked with half the field along with Clinton Dix who'd slide across and take that intermediate level on that half. 

In any case, Cuba's strategy in bunch formations looks to be pick plays and bubble screens and there's no mention of crossing routes, so the press should work fairly well in nullifying the effectiveness of those. 

[Jlash]

43 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

Almost all of these guys are all-pros/pro-bowlers, they're smart enough to make some minor adjustments. 

Oh ok. I'll ignore things that don't make sense to me anymore since these guys are smart.

[Jlash]

33 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

I can't draw a diagram because I'm at work but lets say your regular cover 3 looks like this at the back: 

_ _ _CB_ _ _ FS _ _ _ CB _ _ _ 

What would happen in this circumstance is: 

_ _ KF _ _ CHJ  _ _ _  DS _ _ _ _ _

Right, so this is more a bastardization of a cover 6 than anything else. 

[WFLukic]

22 minutes ago, Jlash said:

Right, so this is more a bastardization of a cover 6 than anything else. 

That's probably the best way of putting it for those bunch formations without Julio, yeah. 

[VigilantZombie]

Both of these rosters are excellent. In the end, I like Cuba's gameplan better.