TOUCAN Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, theuntouchable said: Good morning New day, new page of our budding frienship, Touch ol' buddy ol' pal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theuntouchable Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, JoshstraDaymus said: New day, new page of our budding frienship, Touch ol' buddy ol' pal? Shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOUCAN Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, theuntouchable said: Shut up You're gonna have to let this go at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theuntouchable Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOUCAN Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 It was an honest mistake and I promise to never intentionally kill you again probably. So Okudah huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 hours ago, theuntouchable said: Good morning Morning shine. Wait, is it still morning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 8 hours ago, SwAg said: How would you feel if squire was anomalously protected last night? I would say that he's almost certainly Mafia. Why would any Townie protect Squire given how yesterday's lynch vote went down? 8 hours ago, SwAg said: Squire’s literal position so far is to take almost no position, except that he is Town. Going back to the first artificial exercise I had him do with Biggio after I mixed them up when they posted in succession. The whole approach has been to say nothing to limit the damage done to his faction. Yeah, but as I've pointed out in dead chat the past two games, Squire's threadplay leaves a lot to be desired. 8 hours ago, SwAg said: Squire’s reasoning wasn’t that he thought either Finn or Hein were scum, he simply knows he’s Town, and then chose the inactive over Finn by happenstance. Yes. And? If you know you're Town, then almost by definition you don't know anything about anyone else's role on Day 1. If I'm up for a lynch and there are two other people who could die instead of me, I'm taking my chances on one of them and continuing to play myself. 8 hours ago, SwAg said: And it’s not averting your own potential demise, it’s the manner, timing, and rationale. So, let’s quit reducing his actions down to the simplest form to make them more palatable, shall we? Thanks. Assuming you're directing this at me and not Orca, but I'm not reducing his actions at all or trying to make them more palatable. I'm pointing out that most Townies are going to blink in that scenario because nobody wants to die on Day 1. 5 hours ago, SwAg said: I am here for your hourly reminder: squire, rack, finn. I get a very Town read on Rack. Why get in a massive thread argument with you over Malf's obvious D1 gambit if he's Mafia? He's not gonna change your mind, he's probably not going to get you lynched unless Squire and Finn both come up Town, and it's just going to draw attention to himself. I don't think scum Rack would do that. Squire has to be the lynch today. Finn doesn't tell us anything about Squire that we don't already know. Fine with somebody offing Finn during Night phase if Squire flips Mafia tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Blue said: Squire has to be the lynch today. Finn doesn't tell us anything about Squire that we don't already know. Fine with somebody offing Finn during Night phase if Squire flips Mafia tho. With what is semi known/leap connected this statement is highly worrisome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: With what is semi known/leap connected this statement is highly worrisome Are you familiar with the Monty Hall Problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Just now, Blue said: Are you familiar with the Monty Hall Problem? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Where is everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Just now, Pickle Rick said: No It's based on an old game show. In the context of the show, one door is the grand prize, while the other two have no prizes. You have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the door with the grand prize at the start. After you pick one door, the show host opens one of the other two doors, revealing what's behind it, and gives you the choice to switch to a different door--including the one he just opened. Statistically, you have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the grand prize with your first guess. But if you don't, the host isn't really choosing between two doors to open; he's only picking one because he obviously isn't going to open the door with the grand prize behind it and make it easy for you. So in the Monty Hall Problem, you actually have a better chance of winning the grand prize if you switch to the unrevealed door that neither you nor the host picked. Let's apply that to the Squire situation. Squire is the opened door, from his perspective, as he already knows what he's going to flip as. Obviously, he's not going to want to pick himself. Thus, he's picking between two other options, effectively making that choice at random if he is Town or Independent. However, if Squire is Mafia, then he's also playing the role of the host here because he knows something everyone else doesn't: whether the two choices he has are aligned with him. The host in Monty Hall knows which two doors are empty and which is the prize; in Mafia terms, this means Mafia Squire knows which two players are Mafia and which is not. Thus, there's only one "correct" choice for Squire if he's Mafia and one of the other two lynch options is his teammate. Since we know Heimdallr was Town, that makes it more likely (not 100%, just likely) that Finn is also Mafia since Squire chose to lynch Heimdallr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOUCAN Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: Where is everyone? Hiya! I've been sitting here waiting for things to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Just now, JoshstraDaymus said: Hiya! I've been sitting here waiting for things to happen. Tell me some your thoughts buddy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 @Blue what does that theory look like if we know that finn is scum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts