Which D-lineman will we retain 3 or 4 years from now?

[turtle28]

1. Kerrigan FA in 2021 - we should trade him now to a team who needs a left DE/OLB like Baltimore, but I don’t think we will. Will he retire after this year? Will Dan Snyder force Rivera to overpay you’re retain Kerrigan if he’s determined to play a few more years? It remains to be seen. If we don’t trade him, I hope he retires bc while I love Kerrigan,  I just can’t fathom paying him around or over $10 million next year on a new contract.
 

2. Jon Allen in 2022 - I think we lock him up long term next offseason. Not only is he the leader of the DL, but I think he’s the leader of the defense and the leader of the entire team going forward and while he won’t put up the gaudy stats that guys like Sweat & Young will, he's the heart and soul of our defense.

3. Da’Ron Payne in 2022 (2023 if 5th year option) - Here’s where it starts to get tricky and hard decisions will have to be made. Most likely Payne will get his 5th year option - I don’t see whey they wouldn’t - which makes him a FA in 2023. Also, in 2023 Matt Ioannidis is a FA.
 

So, a couple things come into play here. Who do you keep between Payne and Ioannidis? Payne is the better run defender and Ioannidis is the better pass rusher. Payne takes on more double teams though and him being in a 4-3 may be beneficial to his pass rushing. Also, Payne is 3 years younger. Payne will be just 26 when his rookie contract & 5th year option are up, Ioannidis will be 29 that same year.

So, I have to think that Payne will be re-signed and they will let Ioannidis walk in 2023 or really what they should do is trade Ioannidis before the 2022 season as long as they can get back a 3rd round pick or a 2nd round pick bc if he’s allowed to walk after the 2022 we will most likely get a 3rd or 4th round 2024 comp pick for Ioannidis.
 

4. Matt Ioannidis 2023 - covered above. I think he’ll be the odd man out for our DTs and we really should trade him before the 2022 trade deadline unless we are Super Bowl contenders by then.

5. Montez Sweat 2023 (2024 if 5th year option) - Much like with Ioannidis, this is going to be a tough decision. We are going to have to re-sign Chase Young in 2024 or 2025 if he gets the 5th year option and most likely when Young reaches free agency he’s going to command the most expensive defensive contact in NFL history - which by then could approach $200 million. At the same time we would Be spending big money on Allen, Payne, maybe a new CB or LB, maybe Scherff, maybe Guice, maybe a LT, probably on Terry and hopefully on Haskins too if he develops how we all hope he will over the next two years.
 

Like with Ioannidis, we should trade Sweat by the 2024 trade deadline I think unless we are Super Bowl contenders and think he’s a key cog to help us get there.

It’s definitely not in stone that Ioannidis and Sweat are going to be odd men out along our DL, but I think it’s most likely they will be over the next 4 years.

What say you?

Edited August 2, 2020 by turtle28

[naptownskinsfan]

Honestly the trade process should begin now with Kerrigan, and then go into this off-season to see who is the odd man out with the fronts and rotations we use.  I wouldn't hold onto someone longer than we need to, especially if we can get a draft pick in this upcoming draft which could be full to the brim with talent as I expect a lot of juniors will bail on college for the draft with the uncertainty surrounding Covid.  

Gun to my head, the pieces who are kept long-term will be Allen and Young.  Sweat definitely finishes his rookie contract.  I could see Payne and Ioannidis both being dealt at different points to help in other areas. 

[PARROTHEAD]

Trade Kerrigan now. Trade Allen after the season. Shop both Payne and Ioan around after the season and take the best deal.

By then the line will look.... Sweat - Ioan/Payne - Settle - Young. Which should give a dominating line for 2022 and beyond while capital has been built up to bring in the picks to address other needs.

[turtle28]

37 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Honestly the trade process should begin now with Kerrigan, and then go into this off-season to see who is the odd man out with the fronts and rotations we use.  I wouldn't hold onto someone longer than we need to, especially if we can get a draft pick in this upcoming draft which could be full to the brim with talent as I expect a lot of juniors will bail on college for the draft with the uncertainty surrounding Covid.  

Gun to my head, the pieces who are kept long-term will be Allen and Young.  Sweat definitely finishes his rookie contract.  I could see Payne and Ioannidis both being dealt at different points to help in other areas. 

I don’t see both Ioannidis & Payne being traded. Also, I don’t see what the point is in keeping Sweat for his 5th year option - unless we are a Super Bowl contender - bc if we traded him we could hopefully get a 1st, 2nd or 3rd round pick and then replace him in the next draft.

I guess they’ll have to decide whether it’s more important to have two DTs on top $ contracts or two DEs on top $ contracts and when you put it like that, it does make more sense to keep Sweat over Payne & Ioannidis.

[turtle28]

48 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Trade Kerrigan now. Trade Allen after the season. Shop both Payne and Ioan around after the season and take the best deal.

By then the line will look.... Sweat - Ioan/Payne - Settle - Young. Which should give a dominating line for 2022 and beyond while capital has been built up to bring in the picks to address other needs.

I find it hard to think that Rivera will trade Allen bc Allen is a team leader and Rivera - rightfully so - puts that just as high as talent. Allen is every bit as good as those other two and he’s emerged as the defensive leader and arguably the top leader on the entire team. I’ll be shocked if Allen doesn’t play his entire career in Washington.
 

I think it’s more likely Payne or Ioannidis gets traded or not re-signed in 2023 and with Ioannidis being 3 years older than Payne, all signs point to Ioannidis being gone by 2023.

Let’s put it this way, by the time Ioannidis’ contract is up he’ll be 29 years old and in that same year Payne will only be 26. That being the case, it’s pretty obvious who you keep.

As you pointed out, Settle can be our 3rd DT then, but honestly by the time Settle’s rookie contract is up in 2022, he may leave for a more lucrative deal to compete for a starting job on another team. Most likely he will, most likely we will lose Settle.

Edited August 1, 2020 by turtle28

[PARROTHEAD]

19 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I find it hard to think that Rivera will trade Allen bc Allen is a team leader and Rivera - rightfully so - puts that just as high as talent. Allen is every bit as good as those other two and he’s emerged as the defensive leader and arguably the top leader on the entire team. I’ll be shocked if Allen doesn’t play his entire career in Washington.
 

I think it’s more likely Payne or Ioannidis gets traded or not re-signed in 2023 and with Ioannidis being 3 years older than Payne, all signs point to Ioannidis being gone by 2023.

Let’s put it this way, by the time Ioannidis’ contract is up he’ll be 29 years old and in that same year Payne will only be 26. That being the case, it’s pretty obvious who you keep.

As you pointed out, Settle can be our 3rd DT then, but honestly by the time Settle’s rookie contract is up in 2022, he may leave for a more lucrative deal to compete for a starting job on another team. Most likely he will, most likely we will lose Settle.

If Allen can be had for 1st round value. Im taking it.

All the matters is keeping Sweat and Young while keeping quality in the middle.We dont need all stars in the middle with those 2 on the bookend and basically 4 LBs counting Collins who can play as one.

To many other places money needs to be spent. Allen by then could be demanding upwards of 20 million.. Sweat 15+ and Chase 27+ if he pans out. Sweat and Chase are all that matter because of the depth we have in the middle when adding Settle to the mix.

[turtle28]

59 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

If Allen can be had for 1st round value. Im taking it.

All the matters is keeping Sweat and Young while keeping quality in the middle.We dont need all stars in the middle with those 2 on the bookend and basically 4 LBs counting Collins who can play as one.

To many other places money needs to be spent. Allen by then could be demanding upwards of 20 million.. Sweat 15+ and Chase 27+ if he pans out. Sweat and Chase are all that matter because of the depth we have in the middle when adding Settle to the mix.

Not sure if you could get a first for Allen and again, his leadership puts him ahead of the other two. 

I don’t know why you’re discounting two things:

1. Allen is the first of the 4 interior DL up for a new contract which means he’ll get extended before them.

2. He’s a team leader. We have a coach who rightfully puts leadership just as high as talent in a football player. Jon Allen has top talent and is a great leader. 
 

I will be 100% shocked if he isn’t re-signed to a long term deal next offseason.

You make a great point about Sweat. The issue that could come about re-signing him is that the next year you are most likely going to have to re-sign Chase Young to the top defensive contract in NFL history. That could keep them from extending Sweat. You have to realize that paying $35-40 million to your starting DEs won’t be ideal, even 5 years from now.

As far as Settle goes, I think he’ll be the first one to leave. His contract is up in 2022 and I think he’s going to want to go to a team where he has a chance to start and most likely that will never be Washington because of the talent we have in front of him.

Edited August 1, 2020 by turtle28

[PARROTHEAD]

14 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Not sure if you could get a first for Allen and again, his leadership puts him ahead of the other two. 

I don’t know why you’re discounting two things:

1. Allen is the first of the 4 interior DL up for a new contract which means he’ll get extended before them.

2. He’s a team leader. We have a coach who rightfully puts leadership just as high as talent in a football player. Jon Allen has top talent and is a great leader. 
 

I will be 100% shocked if he isn’t re-signed to a long term deal next offseason.

You make a great point about Sweat. The issue that could come about re-signing him is that the next year you are most likely going to have to re-sign Chase Young to the top defensive contract in NFL history. That could keep them from extending Sweat. You have to realize that paying $35-40 million to your starting DEs won’t be ideal, even 5 years from now.

SF has 2 DEs at 17 million and then Bosa on a rookie deal theyre going to have to sort through. And theyve built a SB achieving team with 42 mil invested.

If Allen is kept. Then the other 2 have to go and Settle is still the guy to be banked on for the future to help with cost.

Edited August 1, 2020 by PARROTHEAD

[turtle28]

34 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

SF has 2 DEs at 17 million and then Bosa on a rookie deal theyre going to have to sort through. And theyve built a SB achieving team with 42 mil invested.

If Allen is kept. Then the other 2 have to go and Settle is still the guy to be banked on for the future to help with cost.

By the time Bosa is up for a contract extension Dee Ford won't be on the 49ers anymore and Armstead can also play DT (he’s 6’7, 290), in fact I think this year he’ll play more DT than DE. He's a guy you can play at DE on run downs and slide inside go DT on passing downs like Jon Allen.

There's no reason why you can’t keep Allen and Payne and trade Ioannidis and Sweat and replace Sweat with a cheaper FA DE or draft another DE in 2023 to replace him.

I can see Ioannidis and Payne being traded or not re-signed too in time, I just don’t think Allen will be the one traded or not re-signed of the three of them.

It just all depends. I’d love to keep Sweat and Young together but I don't think spending $35-40 million on the DE position is a wise allocation of your cap space. Just as they could draft another DT, they could draft another DE as well in 2023 and it be more cost-effective to draft the DE and re-sign 2 of our Drs than the other wag around. Re-signing two of our DTs when their contracts are up is going to be less than $25 million a year.

Edited August 1, 2020 by turtle28

[PARROTHEAD]

16 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

By the time Bosa is up for a contract extension Dee Ford won't be on the 49ers anymore and Armstead can also play DT (he’s 6’7, 290), in fact I think this year he’ll play more DT than DE. He's a guy you can play at DE on run downs and slide inside go DT on passing downs like Jon Allen.

There's no reason why you can’t keep Allen and Payne and trade Ioannidis and Sweat and replace Sweat with a cheaper FA DE or draft another DE in 2023 to replace him.

I can see Ioannidis and Payne being traded or not re-signed too in time, I just don’t think Allen will be the one traded or not re-signed of the three of them.

It just all depends. I’d love to keep Sweat and Young together but I don't think spending $35-40 million on the DE position is a wise allocation of your cap space. Just as they could draft another DT, they could draft another DE as well in 2023 and it be more cost-effective to draft the DE and re-sign 2 of our Drs than the other wag around. Re-signing two of our DTs when their contracts are up is going to be less than $25 million a year.

I dont see how you think we can up and draft another Sweat. When he could very well produce every bit as Young or more with the attention Young should get. You threw up the TFL stat for rookies. He was 3rd in TFL and 7 sacks while dropping back 50% of the time in coverage. He being able to go forward every play now is huge. And I dont see it ending with a guy that is as easy to let go as either of the interior guys. With 3lbs and Collins. All thats mainly needed on the interior are bodies that can plug up, nullify the OL while the LBs do their work. Sweat and Young are the stars to be banked on. After watching the SF defense last year. I have 0 problem going 40 mill on the DEs.

[turtle28]

42 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

I dont see how you think we can up and draft another Sweat. When he could very well produce every bit as Young or more with the attention Young should get. You threw up the TFL stat for rookies. He was 3rd in TFL and 7 sacks while dropping back 50% of the time in coverage. He being able to go forward every play now is huge. And I dont see it ending with a guy that is as easy to let go as either of the interior guys. With 3lbs and Collins. All thats mainly needed on the interior are bodies that can plug up, nullify the OL while the LBs do their work. Sweat and Young are the stars to be banked on. After watching the SF defense last year. I have 0 problem going 40 mill on the DEs.

I'm not saying you're wrong, or we would definitely find another Sweat, but you can fill the position and use that $15 million a year for other positions too.

The 49ers were more than just great DEs last year. They also had DeForest Buckner at DT, one of the best DTs in the league. They drafted Kinlaw to replace him, it remains to be seen how that works out for them.

Sweat only dropped into coverage like 15-20% of the time, let's not exaggerate. Our defense was in a 4-2-5 look with Sweat/Kerrigan/Anderson playing like 4-3 DEs 60 to 70% of the game.

I also think you also have to put in perspective that when they're going to be having to give Sweat a new deal, they’ll know that the next year they’re going to have to likely pay Young a record contract. Having to do that a year later could affect their decision on wanting to pay to keep Sweat.

There's a lot of factors they go into it rather than just wanting to keep them both. Beyond that, we still have to see if Sweat progresses, I hope and think he will, but what if he doesn't? What if he only produces like Preston Smith for us his next 3 years. That's a wait and see also.

I think we can almost guarantee that Ioannidis won't be re-signed bc by the time his deal is up he’ll be 28 vs the other guys who are younger. The question is which one of the other 5 top DL won't we keep, Allen, Payne, or Sweat?

To me Allen seems like an almost definite guy they'll re-sign next offseason or the one after. So the argument is more like Payne or Sweat for me?

Edited August 1, 2020 by turtle28

[naptownskinsfan]

I don't know if Allen is a given and I really like the guy.  If they feel they can get more out of the others and can push him out, I can see that happening as well.  Allen ended up in a good spot.  If he went top five, some people would be calling him a busy because let's face it, he hasn't had top five production.  But falling to us near the 20th spot?  He's been a good value for us, but he hasn't quite reached that elite territory yet. 

[turtle28]

19 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

I don't know if Allen is a given and I really like the guy.  If they feel they can get more out of the others and can push him out, I can see that happening as well.  Allen ended up in a good spot.  If he went top five, some people would be calling him a busy because let's face it, he hasn't had top five production.  But falling to us near the 20th spot?  He's been a good value for us, but he hasn't quite reached that elite territory yet. 

I don’t think Allen would’ve been called a bust if he went top 5. He’d be viewed as he is now, good but not elite. 129 tackles & 14 sacks while facing a lot of double teams and being a team leader as an interior DL the last two years doesn’t spell bust to me even if San Fran had taken him at #3 in 2017 like they should have.

Now Solomon Thomas - who I was never sold on and San Fran took over guys like Allen - that’s a bust.

Edited August 2, 2020 by turtle28