2021 Defense - What we doin with it

[MrBobGray]

I know we already have a thread about defense, but the DC search is only tangentially related to what I want to discuss, which is what do you bunch of degenerates think we should do with this defense schematically?  Until a DC is officially hired, no defensive scheme is off the table, so let's get weird and ponder the possibilities.

And look, I'll be real; this thread is entirely in service of me wanting to make my case that the best way forward for this secondary is paying King, playing Jaire over the slot, and making the rest of the CB depth group fight to the death about who's playing the other boundary spot.  Why?  Because personally speaking I think defensive philosophy is lagging behind offense for way too many NFL defenses.

Shutdown corners are dead.  Or, to be more clear, shutdown corners are a myth and haven't lived since Sanders walked the earth.  Please don't respond here to list Champ or Revis or whoever, bring up per game target numbers, coverage metrics, whatever your favorite measure of confusing data with reality is.  Shutdown corners are dead because there's been no place in the NFL for them for over two decades.

In 2006, Champ Bailey had one of the best seasons a CB has ever had; he picked off 10 passes and defended 21 total and didn't give up a TD all year.  The Broncos finished the year ranked 21st in passing yards allowed (14th in total defense) and 15th in Net YPA.  In 2007, Nnamdi Asomugha was absolutely impenetrable in coverage, only being thrown at 31 times all year and allowing only 10 completions.  On the year!  The 2007 Oakland Raiders finished a respectable 8th in passing yards allowed; unfortunately, they finished 29th in Net YPA, their low yards in reality a function of facing the 2nd fewest attempts all year, in part because of their horrendous run defense that finished 32nd.  In 2009 Darrelle Revis had a season that will live in infamy, with 6 INTs, 31 PDs, and coverage metrics that I forget because they shine so bright your mind cannot retain their data.  Or I need to take less edibles, either way.  The '09 Jets finished the season ranked #1 in yards, points, and Net YPA - they also gave up 30+ 4 times that year, the last coming when Peyton Manning went 26-39 for 377 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs in a 30-17 victory in the AFC Championship game.  

When people hear the term shutdown corner, they assume (logically) that it's a CB who's coverage is so good that you simply can't throw at him.  The reality is often that a player who isn't being targeted much isn't being targeted for a reason, and that reason is there's much weaker targets elsewhere.  Nnamdi's the poster child of this for me, because people loved to cite his coverage metrics and point out he had 8 picks when teams actually targeted him!  Somehow the fact that teams didn't need to target him because they were getting nearly league-leading YPA throwing elsewhere when they weren't just caving the Raiders defense in with the run just ends up getting lost in the shuffle.  Look at Jaire's coverage metrics this year: by all accounts, he was as good a CB as played this season.  His numbers are ridiculous - 51.3% completion percentage, 4.7 YPA, 67.4 passer rating.  What did you hear people talk about the most?  That Kevin King was getting the Packers killed, how could the defense succeed with such poor coverage on the other side? I don't know,  I guess they didn't, but more importantly why are people even asking that question?  Here's a better one - if the issue with this defense is that even such good coverage from Jaire couldn't overcome issues in coverage elsewhere, then what good is Jaire's shutdown coverage?  If Nnamdi can let up only 10 passes all year but still play for the 22nd ranked defense (26th by points!), did it even matter?  If even the greatest shutdown corner season of all time leads to giving up 30+ every four weeks, how much value did you actually get from it?  

Because that's the problem I always have when these discussions come up.  The offense decides where the ball goes, the defense decides how successful it'll be.  If the ball is never going toward a specific defensive player, it's portrayed as a massive success of that individual defender, often let down by the failure of a different individual defensive player.  But those players don't exist in a vacuum, they play on the same field at the same time for the same team; for all practical intents and purposes, the distinction is academic.  If your defense isn't stopping the other team, you don't have good defensive play, no matter how much the receiver looks like he's wearing your star CB as a shirt.  With each year that the NFL spreads offenses further and further out, each extra receiving option that finds it's way into every NFL team's base package, the value of a guy who can shut his man down diminishes.  This isn't the 90s; teams aren't trotting out 21 personnel 85% of the drives, where neither the 2's nor the 1 can catch anyway.  In 2021, if your guy can shut his man down, all you've done is moved their star receiver to the other side of the field, or to a bunch set, or they'll throw to the TE, maybe a HB go route from the backfield.  Glad you have ole Master Lock, too bad your ILB is ten yards away from their bulked up college WR and losing ground every step.

Defense is only as good as it's weakest link, because the offense decides where they're striking the chain, so put your strongest link where avoiding it actually causes the offense trouble.  Or at least put it close enough to the weak links that when it has to run over and make the tackle it's not starting from the other side of the damn chain.

This wasn't really at all what I meant to type up, but a little laudanum now and then

[squire12]

Is Kevin King and/or Chandon Sullivan good enough to be front line boundary CB if Jaire is moved to the slot?

 

Kevin King

Games		Pass Coverage												Pass Rush					Tackles
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Tgt	Cmp	Cmp%	Yds	Yds/Cmp	Yds/Tgt	TD	Rat	DADOT	Air	YAC	Bltz	Hrry	QBKD	Sk	Prss	Comb	MTkl	MTkl%
2018	23	GNB	RCB	20	6	6	1	24	13	54.2%	143	11.0	6.0	3	94.3	12.0	94	49	1	0	0	0.0	0	17	3	15.0%
2019	24	GNB	RCB	20	15	14	5	85	50	58.8%	864	17.3	10.2	4	84.6	12.6	594	270	1	0	0	1.0	1	66	14	17.5%
2020	25	GNB	CB	20	11	11	0	57	36	63.2%	488	13.6	8.6	1	96.2	10.1	321	167	1	0	1	0.0	1	57	12	17.4

 

Chandon Sullivan

					Games		Pass Coverage												Pass Rush					Tackles
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Tgt	Cmp	Cmp%	Yds	Yds/Cmp	Yds/Tgt	TD	Rat	DADOT	Air	YAC	Bltz	Hrry	QBKD	Sk	Prss	Comb	MTkl	MTkl%
2018	22	PHI		39	5	1	0	7	6	85.7%	117	19.5	16.7	0	118.7	12.7	85	32	0	0	0	0.0	0	7	3	30.0%
2019	23	GNB		39	16	0	1	31	11	35.5%	120	10.9	3.9	0	34.3	10.7	73	47	14	0	1	0.0	1	30	1	3.2%
2020	24	GNB	CB	39	16	10	1	56	38	67.9%	440	11.6	7.9	2	95.8	7.7	268	172	13	1	0	0.0	1	41	4	8.9

[Sasquatch]

We “degenerates” prefer shorter posts.

”I didn’t have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead.”  Twain

[MrBobGray]

21 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

We “degenerates” prefer shorter posts.

”I didn’t have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead.”  Twain

Look I think my post history makes it abundantly clear that's not an option for me.  I yam what I yam and I'll write all the great american novels I want, don't you kink shame me.

22 hours ago, squire12 said:

Is Kevin King and/or Chandon Sullivan good enough to be front line boundary CB if Jaire is moved to the slot?

 

Kevin King

Games		Pass Coverage												Pass Rush					Tackles
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Tgt	Cmp	Cmp%	Yds	Yds/Cmp	Yds/Tgt	TD	Rat	DADOT	Air	YAC	Bltz	Hrry	QBKD	Sk	Prss	Comb	MTkl	MTkl%
2018	23	GNB	RCB	20	6	6	1	24	13	54.2%	143	11.0	6.0	3	94.3	12.0	94	49	1	0	0	0.0	0	17	3	15.0%
2019	24	GNB	RCB	20	15	14	5	85	50	58.8%	864	17.3	10.2	4	84.6	12.6	594	270	1	0	0	1.0	1	66	14	17.5%
2020	25	GNB	CB	20	11	11	0	57	36	63.2%	488	13.6	8.6	1	96.2	10.1	321	167	1	0	1	0.0	1	57	12	17.4

 

Chandon Sullivan

					Games		Pass Coverage												Pass Rush					Tackles
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Tgt	Cmp	Cmp%	Yds	Yds/Cmp	Yds/Tgt	TD	Rat	DADOT	Air	YAC	Bltz	Hrry	QBKD	Sk	Prss	Comb	MTkl	MTkl%
2018	22	PHI		39	5	1	0	7	6	85.7%	117	19.5	16.7	0	118.7	12.7	85	32	0	0	0	0.0	0	7	3	30.0%
2019	23	GNB		39	16	0	1	31	11	35.5%	120	10.9	3.9	0	34.3	10.7	73	47	14	0	1	0.0	1	30	1	3.2%
2020	24	GNB	CB	39	16	10	1	56	38	67.9%	440	11.6	7.9	2	95.8	7.7	268	172	13	1	0	0.0	1	41	4	8.9

I mean the fatal flaw in my post anyway was that it doesn't really address how I think the defense should be aligned to make that happen; I realized I'd written a thousand words and said almost nothing but I wasn't about to actually go back and re-write that monster.  Should have, but no.  So to address that and answer your question here, it really depends on what kind of coverage you want your boundary CBs playing.  Sullivan could probably survive outside if you're playing a lot of Cover-2, I actually like him playing curl/flat, but I'd worry about him playing a lot of man.  King would probably be best playing a lot of Cover-3 with some Cover-1, which is the exact thing that would get Sullivan eaten alive.  So you're not likely looking to play both those guys outside unless no one else steps up.  The DC pick will answer a lot of this, but if it were me I'd push hard to re-sign King and play a bunch of Cover-3 with accent walls of Cover-1 and Cover-0.  Best bet across from him in that case is Hollman right now, unless Jackson finds his inner Pan in real short order.