Brad Biggs On Bears Draft Plans....

[soulman]

Will Bears trade up in Round 1 for a QB? Sifting through pre-draft smoke to determine what's real — and what’s an illusion.

 

Brad Biggs, Chicago Tribune

Thu, April 22, 2021, 3:30 AM

 

 

CHICAGO — Two months ago, the Chicago Bears were rumored to be in the mix for Carson Wentz.

The buzz around the NFL, for a weekend anyway, was that they were the leading candidate to partner with the Philadelphia Eagles in a deal. It turned out the Bears never were a serious suitor for Wentz, who eventually was dealt to the Indianapolis Colts.

Brace yourself. Until the start of the draft on April 29, the Bears will be linked with every team in the top 10 that might be considering trading down — and probably even teams not considering trading out, starting with the Atlanta Falcons, who have been reported to have taken calls about the No. 4 pick.

That is what happens when you’re desperate for a quarterback and the only move you’ve made is signing 33-year-old Andy Dalton to a one-year contract. Just as the Eagles seemingly used the Bears in negotiating efforts to maximize their return for Wentz, teams are going to throw them out there when talking about trading picks in the top 10 to drive up the price.

 

If the Bears aren’t in panic mode regarding quarterbacks room, they probably should be. General manager Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy are under pressure to win this season, and the addition of Dalton might provide them with more confidence than it has the fan base, but they know without a legitimate prospect they hardly have constructed a makeover plan in the wake of the Mitch Trubisky era.

Every team is shielding its intentions. The San Francisco 49ers likely know which quarterback they’re targeting at No. 3, but whose name will be called after Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence goes No. 1 to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Zach Wilson is taken second by the New York Jets remains unknown. Sifting through the smoke and determining the facts and teams’ intentions are always risky, and there’s even more unknown in an unprecedented draft coming off a COVID-19-effected scouting process and college season.

It’s almost unthinkable that Pace and Nagy’s plan for an offensive reboot and quarterback do-over ends with the addition of Dalton, who puts the Bears in a year-to-year proposition at the position. So the Bears need to find a quarterback who gives them promise, a challenging task with them picking at No. 20 in Round 1.

Questions begin with when Ohio State’s Justin Fields, Alabama’s Mac Jones and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will come off the board. Some believe five quarterbacks could be selected in the top nine or 10 picks. Others believe one will slide out of the top 10, which would make a potential trade-up scenario less costly. Are the Bears zeroed on one or two of the three quarterbacks or good with all three? Would they be content with a quarterback in the next tier of options that likely includes Stanford’s Davis Mills, Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond and Florida’s Kyle Trask?

Who could be a trade partner for a team moving up for a quarterback? Start with the Falcons at No. 4. Sources say to keep an eye on the Detroit Lions at No. 7 and Carolina Panthers at No. 8. The Denver Broncos at No. 9 are another possibility. However, the Lions and Broncos also could be in the market for a passer.

“I think everybody is trying to trade out,” said a front-office source for a team selecting in the top 10. “We’d trade out in a second. Why wouldn’t you? If someone is moving up for a quarterback, let’s go.

“I look at the Bears, and there could be a desperation move by them. They couldn’t get it done in free agency. They’re trying to get it done in the draft. They need to get a guy to develop. They need to pull the ‘give me some more time’ move.”

That is one possibility regarding the Bears’ intentions in Round 1, and multiple sources have said the Bears are believed to be among a group of teams exploring a trade up. But it’s all pre-draft banter, and Pace, who is scheduled to discuss the draft with media Tuesday in a session likely to reveal next to nothing, doesn’t want to tip his hand.

Considering the roster and what Pace and Nagy are trying to accomplish, it’s easy to believe they are fixated on landing a quarterback. If the Bears are intent on drafting one of the top-five quarterbacks, they might have to trade up to No. 7 with the Lions or No. 8 with the Panthers.

Compensation to move from No. 20 to No. 4 would be expensive. The 49ers traded the 12th pick along with 2022 and 2023 first-round picks and an additional third-round pick to move to No. 3 in a deal with the Miami Dolphins. The Bears might have to pay something similar for the fourth pick, especially considering the Falcons would have to move back to 20. A move to No. 7 or No. 8 wouldn’t be quite as pricey, but as one GM said: “Throw the draft trade chart out when you’re talking about moving up for a quarterback. It doesn’t mean (crap) and it’s almost irrelevant if there are multiple teams angling for the pick.”

Some believe Pace will want to protect draft assets as much as possible because the Bears have multiple needs to fill beyond getting a quarterback prospect. They need a wide receiver and surely would like to add a cornerback, offensive tackle, inside linebacker and more. Trading up would mean dipping into future draft capital to make a bold move.

If the Bears can’t move up for a quarterback, don’t want to pay the cost necessary or are smitten with another prospect, they have plenty more to consider. They could look to add a quarterback in Round 2, but since 2015 only four quarterbacks have been drafted in that round because teams believe prospects who have a shot of panning out are pushed up the board. Waiting until No. 52 could be risky to get a QB, which means a trade up in Round 2 could be in order.

A full week for more scuttlebutt remains. Pace will have an easier time explaining why the team believes a big move for a quarterback prospect was needed than confidently backing a quarterback depth chart that has Dalton, Nick Foles and some late-round flier.

Edited April 22, 2021 by soulman

[soulman]

Biggs commentary pretty much jives with my own thinking.

1) With multiple teams shopping QBs the price for trading up into the top ten will be high and more than likely competitive.

2) Drafting a QB could assure both Pace and Nagy of extensions of 2-4 years.

3) Spending big to move up will almost certainly leave them with less talent in other areas of immediate need.

Biggs finishes by pushing the idea that teams believe round 2 QBs have far less chance of succeeding as top NFL starters meaning what?

The possibility of a trade up in round 2 to draft the very best of the 2nd tier QBs?  Or, does it mean it pays to wait 'til rounds 3 or 4 where you might then take a flyer on a very raw "high upside" guy you hope to develop into more than a career backup?

No matter how we look at it Pace has painted himself in more than one corner due to having spent like mad on defense leaving the offense and the QB position badly in need to better talent due to Mitch's failure and previous neglect of the OL.  Now with his job potentially on the line he has some very tough choices to make in this draft and no room to make any huge mistakes.

Edited April 22, 2021 by soulman

[abstract_thought]

I have a hard time trusting Biggs and others at this time of year. Not that he's intentionally misleading anyone, but his sources have so many reasons to mislead.

I can name about 10 teams in the QB market in this draft. The Bears pick after at least half of them. The cost of a trade up is a big concern IMO.

[WindyCity]

Pretty much what we thought.

They are desperate and they need something that buys them more time.

 

“I look at the Bears, and there could be a desperation move by them. They couldn’t get it done in free agency. They’re trying to get it done in the draft. They need to get a guy to develop. They need to pull the ‘give me some more time’ move.”

[soulman]

24 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Pretty much what we thought.

They are desperate and they need something that buys them more time.

 

“I look at the Bears, and there could be a desperation move by them. They couldn’t get it done in free agency. They’re trying to get it done in the draft. They need to get a guy to develop. They need to pull the ‘give me some more time’ move.”

Isn't that exactly what I said may well be their motive for trading up despite the cost and the conventional wisdom that might say use this QB frenzy to your advantage.  Players rated higher than the QBs may be pushed down and become draft day steals.

Pace will do what Pace will do but unless he can be 100% certain his move up will get him his QB of the future he may be wiser to trade down and collect as many first and second day picks as he can finding talent who could contribute this year and that saves his ***.

[WindyCity]

10 minutes ago, soulman said:

Isn't that exactly what I said may well be their motive for trading up despite the cost and the conventional wisdom that might say use this QB frenzy to your advantage.  Players rated higher than the QBs may be pushed down and become draft day steals.

Pace will do what Pace will do but unless he can be 100% certain his move up will get him his QB of the future he may be wiser to trade down and collect as many first and second day picks as he can finding talent who could contribute this year and that saves his ***.

I am not sure it does. That is how important the QB spot.

As the article alludes to, going from Turbisky to Dalton is likely to impress no one, ownership included.

[soulman]

21 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I am not sure it does. That is how important the QB spot.

As the article alludes to, going from Turbisky to Dalton is likely to impress no one, ownership included.

Ownership asked for progress but failed to define it other than by saying this team has not won a playoff game under Ryan Pace or Matt Nagy.  Is that their "line in the sand" or would two or three more regular season wins show adequate progress?  I'm betting on the latter if only because GMcC will look to use that as his reasoning for keeping them on.

No one in the front office has ever said "impress me" with some draft day magic that tells us we have our QB of the future because after drafting 1st rounders like Grossman and Trubisky even they know it may take two years before anyone will know whether or not that's the case.  Surely it won't make much different in 2021 if the rookie sits most of the year.

I'm not arguing for or against a major trade up I'm only saying there's more than just one path to showing "progress".

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, soulman said:

Ownership asked for progress but failed to define it other than by saying this team has not won a playoff game under Ryan Pace or Matt Nagy.  Is that their "line in the sand" or would two or three more regular season wins show adequate progress?  I'm betting on the latter if only because GMcC will look to use that as his reasoning for keeping them on.

No one in the front office has ever said "impress me" with some draft day magic that tells us we have our QB of the future because after drafting 1st rounders like Grossman and Trubisky even they know it may take two years before anyone will know whether or not that's the case.  Surely it won't make much different in 2021 if the rookie sits most of the year.

I'm not arguing for or against a major trade up I'm only saying there's more than just one path to showing "progress".

Ownership talked about the QB position for the majority of their year in press conference.

[soulman]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Ownership talked about the QB position for the majority of their year in press conference.

How could they not?  To have ignored it would've had them look even more clueless than they are.  Everyone knew Mitch wouldn't be back so a QB would be needed.  But that says nothing about what "progress" is conditioned upon.

We should all realize by now that GMcC who was once an attorney will be as vague and non-specific as possible in order to give himself maximum leeway to defend his position.  We also should realize he dislikes turnover and having to re-hire GMs.  It's a McCaskey thing.

I would say that it appears Pace has prepared himself to move up to draft a QB but how far up he's willing to go or can go is still in question for now.  Also less clear is who he values enough to do it but that's to be expected.  If it can be done I believe he will do it.

Why?

As usual he seems to have convinced himself that he's covered his other basis well enough to spend picks he could use to bolster several positions on a QB.  And just as usual I believe he's overly confident in his additions and they will fail to produce as expected. 

From my perspective this is like going back to the years when he signed up any and every experienced vet he could find cheaply enough to plug a hole.  It didn't work then and I don't believe it will work now but he'll have his QB which he feels is his missing link.

I'm not anywhere near that confident a shiny new QB will produce the expected results fans want but it more than likely will produce the expected result Pace and Nagy want which are extensions of their current deals.  Drafting a QB is mostly a self-dealing decision.

Edited April 22, 2021 by soulman