Trade-Back Scenarios-Not Looking Good

[CWood21]

On 4/21/2022 at 7:20 AM, Sllim Pickens said:

In that scenario, we may get a future 1st out of it, which I would be ok with too.  If a team is that set on getting their QB, they would have to pay a premium for that extra year of control.  I don't think its likely, but its what I would push for.  

As for trading back from 2, it is highly unlikely but I wouldn't rule anything out as we have seen shocking trades happen that were highly unexpected. 

Turning #32 into a future FRP is probably an ideal scenario, but it's also probably highly unlikely.  I believe the last time that a team traded out of the first round all together was in 2007 when the Patriots traded the 28th pick to the 49ers for #110 and a '08 FRP.  Looking back at the last five times a team traded into the back third of the first round for a QB, you've got Lamar Jackson (2018), Teddy Bridgewater (2014), Tim Tebow (2010), Brady Quinn (2007), and Jason Campbell (2005).

Lamar Jackson: #30, #132 for #52, #125, '19 SRP
Teddy Bridgewater: #32 for #40, #108
Tim Tebow: #25 for #43, #70, #114
Brady Quinn: #22 for #36, '08 FRP
Jason Campbell: #25 for #76, '06 FRP, '06 4th Round Pick

Seems the value for late Day 1 QBs have tanked significantly since the Brady Quinn fiasco.

[CWood21]

On 4/21/2022 at 12:15 PM, Karnage84 said:

The more that I think about it, I think it'd be either Carolina or Atlanta. You're in a division where Tom Brady is leading the Bucs. He's likely gone in 2-3 seasons from now. The Saints have Jameis and Sean Payton is no longer leading the charge. Neither the Panthers or Falcons are quite ready to compete for the division with their current rosters. However, the Panthers really have this season to get things on track before Tepper is likely going to try and tap into another HC. Falcons might have a bit more wiggle room but I would give them this season and next to really turn things around before they start looking too. 

Panthers just have to figure out if Darnold or the roster (or both) is the issue. If they can get him better protection and add some weapons, could they win enough games to salvage the year and give Rhule another season of team building? Maybe. It's a big maybe. If it's more about Darnold, they could still address the protection issues at #6 and then give up future assets to find the guy who might either a) help them win more games to keep their jobs and/or b) give Tepper a reason to delay firing this staff and develop their QBOTF. 

Falcons can't be looking at Mariota as their long-term option. They desperately need WR help which they can address at #8. Selecting someone like Ridder at #32 could buy some more time for this staff without having to give up future assets. 

Indy appears to be more of a "win now" and they'll build around Ryan. They could take someone in the 3rd (or 2nd if a Corral or Howell falls to them) but that division only really has two solid teams. If you can put something together that's competent you have a real shot at making the playoffs unlike the meat grinder of the AFC West. 

Atlanta isn't dangling a future FRP.  I feel fairly confident on that one.  They're going to be bad.  They're keeping that FRP probably with the idea of grabbing their QBOTF in next year's draft.  And if Atlanta actually feels motivation to move up the board to select a QB, they're probably more interested in moving #42 to move up then their FRP next year which is probably going to be a top 10 pick.

But as you mentioned, Carolina probably has the motivation and need to move up to get a QB.  And unfortunately, they lack the draft picks to make the move the board using strictly '22 picks.  So if they want a QB, right now it's either take one at 6 and probably overdraft one or trade future picks to do so.  The one red flag is probably the job security of Matt Rhule.  He's been viewed as on the hot seat going into this offseason, but managed to keep his job.  The Panthers hired Scott Fitterer a little over a year ago, so his job security is probably safe right now.

Indianapolis would be an interesting one.  They've shown a willingness to deal future picks, and Matt Ryan is probably only the answer for a couple of seasons so if they could get back into the '22 draft without giving up their Day 2 picks that might have some merit.  Perhaps something similar to what the 49ers gave up to get Joe Staley with a little bit of a premium added.

[Millenhater]

On 4/24/2022 at 10:32 AM, CWood21 said:

Atlanta isn't dangling a future FRP.  I feel fairly confident on that one.  They're going to be bad.  They're keeping that FRP probably with the idea of grabbing their QBOTF in next year's draft.  And if Atlanta actually feels motivation to move up the board to select a QB, they're probably more interested in moving #42 to move up then their FRP next year which is probably going to be a top 10 pick.

But as you mentioned, Carolina probably has the motivation and need to move up to get a QB.  And unfortunately, they lack the draft picks to make the move the board using strictly '22 picks.  So if they want a QB, right now it's either take one at 6 and probably overdraft one or trade future picks to do so.  The one red flag is probably the job security of Matt Rhule.  He's been viewed as on the hot seat going into this offseason, but managed to keep his job.  The Panthers hired Scott Fitterer a little over a year ago, so his job security is probably safe right now.

Indianapolis would be an interesting one.  They've shown a willingness to deal future picks, and Matt Ryan is probably only the answer for a couple of seasons so if they could get back into the '22 draft without giving up their Day 2 picks that might have some merit.  Perhaps something similar to what the 49ers gave up to get Joe Staley with a little bit of a premium added.

I think the Panthers are desperately going to try and trade down.  I think they would take a deep discount if they do it too.