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The Official New Jersey Devils Thread v2.0 | Keefe it is


beekay414

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1 hour ago, Rainmaker90 said:

You’ve been counting them out since November pretty much, I guess you can be happy about draft position. 

The numbers are the numbers for the standings at Thanksgiving. Not like I made them up. 

Then they spent the next 4 months being pretty bad

Them making the playoffs was always going to unlikely from a historical standpoint in the salary cap and 3 point era

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

The numbers are the numbers for the standings at Thanksgiving. Not like I made them up. 

Then they spent the next 4 months being pretty bad

Them making the playoffs was always going to unlikely from a historical standpoint in the salary cap and 3 point era

If you’re talking about the 90% of the playoffs who’s in at Thanksgiving, it really doesn’t mean much. 50% of the teams make it, another 25% about have little shot , that leaves 25% of teams who are left out vying for a spot.

 

Regardless, counting a team out with what 75% of the year at that time .. cmon

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1 minute ago, Rainmaker90 said:

If you’re talking about the 90% of the playoffs who’s in at Thanksgiving, it really doesn’t mean much. 50% of the teams make it, another 25% about have little shot , that leaves 25% of teams who are left out vying for a spot.

 

Regardless, counting a team out with what 75% of the year at that time .. cmon

It has shown that if you're in the playoffs at thanksgiving, you have a really good shot at being in the playoffs at the end of the season. If you're not, you're not likely to be in the playoffs at the end. 

20 years of data is a pretty good amount. It is what it is. Hasn't been proven inaccurate this year (currently there are only 3 teams in it that weren't at the time, and one of those was tied for a playoff spot at thanksgiving in the flyers) and the devils continued to be bad. They were 4 points out at thanksgiving, 6 points out now. 

 

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Progression isn't linear. Teams have some ups and downs even over a full season. The devils were pretty bad this year and had a lot of poor luck. Just wasn't their year. They probably aren't one of the best 16 teams in the league. They consistently lost to some of the worst teams in the league. 

Also, and I know this sounds stupid.....but they didn't get to overtime enough. They didn't take advantage of the loser point. They have 4 overtime losses. The Islanders have 15. That's an 11 point difference. The Islanders probably aren't a better team than the devils, but because of those stupid loser points, they are a point ahead with a game in hand. Dumbest freaking thing. Flyers have 9 (5 points difference when separated by 7), Capital have 9 (5 points difference when separated by 3, though the Caps have 2 games in hand). And it's not like you can do something that makes you get to overtime more often, I think. I don't think you can practice it as a team. Maybe there's a gameplan difference that Ruff could have incorporated. 

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