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Unexpected Impact of Tom Brady's Retirement


Just Want A Title

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3 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

Some of the most significant moves are contract re-structures that will create more cap issues in subsequent years.  I don't see them competing for a deep playoff run or a division title in the next two years.  Using re-structures to create cap-space this year will only push their cap issues into future years.

The article mentions it will push some of it to 2024, but also the cap is expected to increase 25M for 2024.  

As for Evans, he is 29 and still productive.  He has a huge cap  hit this year but they only save $2M if they cut him with 21M in dead cap.  Moving him is not a smart move. 

Chris Godwin is the same way, he would hurt their cap by 11M if they move him this year.  

The article shows an easy path of getting under the cap, not totally damaging future years, and staying competitive. Given it would cost them more to tear it down this year, they would be dumb to do so.  EWhen teams tear it down, they don't cut or trade all-pro players that would cost them more to ship away.  If they are in the same situation next year and didnt have a good season, maybe they move Vea then when he would save them 11.3M and cut Gage who will save them 10M and trade/cut Carlton Davis who would save them 15M. So they have a much easier way to cap freedom next year, especially with Mike Evans contract expiring after this year (unless they extend him).    

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2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

The article mentions it will push some of it to 2024, but also the cap is expected to increase 25M for 2024.  

As for Evans, he is 29 and still productive.  He has a huge cap  hit this year but they only save $2M if they cut him with 21M in dead cap.  Moving him is not a smart move. 

Chris Godwin is the same way, he would hurt their cap by 11M if they move him this year.  

The article shows an easy path of getting under the cap, not totally damaging future years, and staying competitive. Given it would cost them more to tear it down this year, they would be dumb to do so.  EWhen teams tear it down, they don't cut or trade all-pro players that would cost them more to ship away.  If they are in the same situation next year and didnt have a good season, maybe they move Vea then when he would save them 11.3M and cut Gage who will save them 10M and trade/cut Carlton Davis who would save them 15M. So they have a much easier way to cap freedom next year, especially with Mike Evans contract expiring after this year (unless they extend him).    

I read the article correctly, about $42 million in salary cap space will be deferred to 2024 on the restructures for Mike Evans Chris Godwin, Vita Vea and Carlton Davis.  Even If the 2024 salary cap projected for around $250 million that is still close to $42 million in deferred cap charges.  That still only gets them to about $6-$7 million under the cap which is what they would need to sign their rookie class.  Those types of moves will probably keep them in salary cap jail just as it has with the New Orleans Saints.

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54 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

I read the article correctly, about $42 million in salary cap space will be deferred to 2024 on the restructures for Mike Evans Chris Godwin, Vita Vea and Carlton Davis.  Even If the 2024 salary cap projected for around $250 million that is still close to $42 million in deferred cap charges.  That still only gets them to about $6-$7 million under the cap which is what they would need to sign their rookie class.  Those types of moves will probably keep them in salary cap jail just as it has with the New Orleans Saints.

If they make the moves they suggested, it would move half of Evans deferred and a third of Godwin's into 24, or about 10M.  The rest would go to 25, but again those guys would still be under contract. 

Vea's restructure would move 8.8M off of 23 but only 3M to each of 24-25.  He would still have a low dead cap number if they were to move him after this year or next, much better than if they move him now anyways and would actually have cap savings from the move. 

Davis would be similar.  Split between the two future years but if the move him next year, would still be much better for the cap impact. This would push about 5M into 24. 

So that moves about 20M into 24 and gets them below the cap. 

With Brady retiring, there is not much they can do about that and it will be spread out over the next two years either way but that will also open up another 24M this year.  So they wouldn't have to do 2 or 3 of the moves mentioned above that would impact 2025.  

If the Bucs decided to move Vea or Evans or Godwin, they would be in a worse cap situation requiring more cuts and more money being pushed to future years with restructuring and would not have those individuals to do it with.  So if they don't have to push money into 2024 for Vea, they can just keep him as is and be in a better cap situation. The best situation would be to leave Davis and Mike Evans alone and then Evans falls off next year and Davis can be traded/cut saving 14.5M next year.  Then do what the article mentioned with Vea and Godwin since they both will more likely be in the future plans.   

 

 

 

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23 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

The worst case scenario for the Bucs has become official.  The are in full-on rebuild mode.  It will be interesting to see if they have a "fire sale".

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/02/10/report-tom-brady-files-retirement-letter/

Depends on where the QBs go. Carr seems like he's going to NO. Rodgers maybe to NYJ or LV. Leaves you with Jimmy G as an option? He's probably too expensive anyways, time to blow it up.

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On 2/10/2023 at 7:15 PM, Just Want A Title said:

The worst case scenario for the Bucs has become official.  The are in full-on rebuild mode.  It will be interesting to see if they have a "fire sale".

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/02/10/report-tom-brady-files-retirement-letter/

Would love to grab Devin White or Jamel Dean. They are both still young guys TB can build around but I hope not. 

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8 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

Would love to grab Devin White or Jamel Dean. They are both still young guys TB can build around but I hope not. 

Devin White would be a huge improvement to our LB room.  If the Bucs release Devin White they would incur an $11 Million dead cap charge with no cap savings but with a trade they would save $11 million with no dead cap charge.  I don't know if they would be willing to pay that much for a LB but he would also bring deep playoff/championship experience to our locker room.  I could see a trade where the Bucs pay a part of Devin's White's salary to make it work.

 

Edited by Just Want A Title
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4 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

Devin White would be a huge improvement to our LB room.  If the Bucs release Devin White they would incur an $11 Million dead cap charge with no cap savings but with a trade they would save $11 million with no dead cap charge.  I don't know if they would be willing to pay that much for a LB but he would also bring deep playoff/championship experience to our locker room.  I could see a trade where the Bucs pay a part of Devin's White's salary to make it work.

 

I'd rather pay $11 million for Devin White than to throw big money at Anzalone. And if we cut some dead weight (Vaitai, Brockers, maybe Romeo) we could afford to spend a little more for a quality defender.

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On 2/10/2023 at 9:15 PM, Just Want A Title said:

The worst case scenario for the Bucs has become official.  The are in full-on rebuild mode.  It will be interesting to see if they have a "fire sale".

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/02/10/report-tom-brady-files-retirement-letter/

This is the best case scenario for this year.  It bumps 25M to next year which sucks for then but it means they don't need to blow everything up or do all of those extensions discussed above.  This is actually best case scenario for them this year to get under the cap.  They currently have 84 Million available in cap space in 2024 due to contracts ending and dead money falling off, and that includes Brady's 24M hitting next year.  So they really just need to find a way to sneak through this year so blowing it all up is unlikely. 

It seems Dean will be available since he is a free agent and they likely can't afford to resign him but other than that, they don't have to have a fire sale.  Devin White would be nice but if they sign him to an extension, they can spread his cap hit out without losing him.  

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6 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Some of "space" that they will have will be taken up by signing Tristin Wirfs.  Also, Devin White and Antoine Winfield Jr are not signed for 2024.  I am pretty sure those players will take up some of that projected space.

It will, but they have a lot of space to be able to do that in 24.  If 40M of that space is taken up by those 3, they still have 44M for everything else.  They may want to bring Mike Evans back so maybe another 15M-20M there and they still have 20-25M for everything else.  Not to mention if those guys sign new deals, they likely will be structured to spread the cap hit out.  

I know you have this dream and everyone had the same dream about the Saints last year but the cap is easy to maneuver around and reduce cap hits.  Teams don't blow it up completely when they dont have to.  They may move on from an aging player or an overpriced contract but typically they just sign extensions and move cap forward. 

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On a similar note, the New Orleans Saints are $57 Million over the salary cap because of the their "salary cap wizardry".  Their might be an opportunity to work out a trade with them also.

"Which NFL team has the least cap space in 2023?

The team with the least salary cap space in 2023 is the New Orleans Saints, who are over the cap by a whopping $57,384,434, meaning they have a negative salary cap"

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/who-has-most-cap-space-nfl-2023

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8 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

On a similar note, the New Orleans Saints are $57 Million over the salary cap because of the their "salary cap wizardry".  Their might be an opportunity to work out a trade with them also.

"Which NFL team has the least cap space in 2023?

The team with the least salary cap space in 2023 is the New Orleans Saints, who are over the cap by a whopping $57,384,434, meaning they have a negative salary cap"

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/who-has-most-cap-space-nfl-2023

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35603610/how-saints-free-80m-get-2023-salary-cap

Again they will have more gymnastics to do but should still be able to get under the cap pretty easily.  They will push more money to 2024 but again, teams are more willing to push money forward with caps increasing.  I am guessing Thomas is available and maybe Lattimore but I doubt they move a bunch of key pieces.  They also likely wont be able to resign many of their free agents so thats a plus. 

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50 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35603610/how-saints-free-80m-get-2023-salary-cap

Again they will have more gymnastics to do but should still be able to get under the cap pretty easily.  They will push more money to 2024 but again, teams are more willing to push money forward with caps increasing.  I am guessing Thomas is available and maybe Lattimore but I doubt they move a bunch of key pieces.  They also likely wont be able to resign many of their free agents so thats a plus. 

Would love to grab Lattimore. I feel like the Lions are in a good position to grab one or two damn good defenders with their cap space and continue to draft well. Would love to see them take a shot at a DT/LB/CB before the draft. And then focusing on re-signing our main guys (Jamaal, Chark, Cominsky, Buggs). 

Edited by Louis Friend
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