skibrett15 Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, incognito_man said: I'm not sure I agree that including the human behavior (draft misses) within a TVC is helpful. Consideration of the human element should occur AFTER consulting the true value chart (i.e. Bad Team offers a trade package that yields surplus value on our teams' adjusted chart - pull trigger on their offer). The only human part I'm saying should be included is just the uncertainty of the pick selection process though right? If you include 15 drafts, and include pick 23 and pick 24 and pick 21 and pick 20 in the input data for pick 22, or smooth it similarly to that, I think you mitigate the outsized effect that 3 busts at pick 22 would have on the data and come up with a realistic view of what you can expect to get in terms of production from pick 22. And when you compare what that says to what teams actually do, I think it's glaring how poorly teams manage their draft capital when trading up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 I think you have to treat it like a black box. Imagine the players are suitcases filled with money and you're a contestant on a game show. You know the previous value distributions of the suitcases from previous episodes. Now develop a chart that you can reference during the game when faced with decisions about whether to trade your selection or not. Assume that everyone else in the game has the same expected value assignments on each suitcase that you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HokieHigh Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 (edited) after looking into it, every 1st round trade in the 2022 nfl draft included picks that are not listed on this chart, except det/min. min give 32 34 66 = 286 273 134=693 det give 12 46 = 491 210=701 model checks out for 1/1 trades Edited March 25, 2023 by HokieHigh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer_ESP Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 42 minutes ago, HokieHigh said: after looking into it, every 1st round trade in the 2022 nfl draft included picks that are not listed on this chart, except det/min. min give 32 34 66 = 286 273 134=693 det give 12 46 = 491 210=701 model checks out for 1/1 trades So it's 100% accurate. Bravo Incog! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 25, 2023 Author Share Posted March 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Packer_ESP said: So it's 100% accurate. Bravo Incog! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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