Players importance

[AZBearsFan]

11 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Which is exactly why I pushed back on it. Because we as a Football Fandom use those terms incorrectly. 

Just like I wouldn’t say DJ Moore is an Elite WR, but I would absolutely say he’s a WR1.

Now I think JJ is further down the list of CBs than Moore is the list of WRs, but I do believe on talent and more important fit/importance to this Defense, Jaylon is and has proven to be a CB1 here. Now if availability is something that is holding the Bears back, I can’t say I’m totally shocked there 

I think he’s flashed it, but after 3 years I’d hope to have seen it more consistently. I thought his 2022 was a bit of a step back from his 2021, though at least some of that may have been a product of being in a worse situation too. 

[JibjeResearch]

10 hours ago, Docknstein11 said:

Curious what Poles thinks of Kmet as the longterm TE1 and also how the target share will be this year. How likely is it that Tonyan out produces Kmet in the pass game?

I think if Kmet wins the WR2 position from Mooney as a TE1, he will get the $13M/year from the Bears.  If Mooney or Claypool wins the WR2, Kmet might not be back depending on how Pole values other positions and how he sees the draft.

This is the Chicago Fields Bears.  Other players will have to make Fields better if they want to stay as a Bear.

Edited July 20, 2023 by JibjeResearch

[AZBearsFan]

4 hours ago, JibjeResearch said:

I think if Kmet wins the WR2 position from Mooney as a TE1, he will get the $13M/year from the Bears.  If Mooney or Claypool wins the WR2, Kmet might not be back depending on how Pole values other positions and how he sees the draft.

This is the Chicago Fields Bears.  Other players will have to make Fields better if they want to stay as a Bear.

The Kmet evaluation is a difficult one IMO because he’s not a flex TE in the Hockenson mold, but most compare him to that statistically when talking about his overall value. The value he brings as a blocker is in fact important and a factor in what you’re buying with a Kmet extension though (limited, but a factor nonetheless). You almost have to look at it to place a value on what he is as a receiver (middle tier starter), then apply a supplemental value for what he is as a blocker. 

[Sugashane]

5 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

The Kmet evaluation is a difficult one IMO because he’s not a flex TE in the Hockenson mold, but most compare him to that statistically when talking about his overall value. The value he brings as a blocker is in fact important and a factor in what you’re buying with a Kmet extension though (limited, but a factor nonetheless). You almost have to look at it to place a value on what he is as a receiver (middle tier starter), then apply a supplemental value for what he is as a blocker. 

Exactly. A bunch of us have talked about how cool it is to see Fields have this level of weapons around him but it is still a run-first team. Kmets blocking is huge for this offense. In a pass happy offense like TB last year his value would drop imo, because he is a solid receiver (it seems) but a very good blocker. His biggest strength is his blocking imo. He's no Ernie Conwell in the run game (see how many of you know him without Google. Lol) but he's also not Conwell in the pass game either (that's good too).

Hopefully he keeps progressing and ends up a consistent 600 yards and 5 TDs guy and Poles locks him up. That would make him the perfect compliment to Moore, Fields and the run game.

[AZBearsFan]

10 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Exactly. A bunch of us have talked about how cool it is to see Fields have this level of weapons around him but it is still a run-first team. Kmets blocking is huge for this offense. In a pass happy offense like TB last year his value would drop imo, because he is a solid receiver (it seems) but a very good blocker. His biggest strength is his blocking imo. He's no Ernie Conwell in the run game (see how many of you know him without Google. Lol) but he's also not Conwell in the pass game either (that's good too).

Hopefully he keeps progressing and ends up a consistent 600 yards and 5 TDs guy and Poles locks him up. That would make him the perfect compliment to Moore, Fields and the run game.

Right. There’s genuine value for what we do on offense that Kmet’s presence on the field isn’t any kind of giveaway to what we’re doing on any given play. He’s one of the better blocking TEs in the league and is more than adequately capable as a receiver (and continues to progress there every year). He’s not a great player, but he’s a really solid one in all aspects of the position, and again, he’s just 24.

Between he, Mooney and Claypool I think he Kmet the clearest path to being a longer term Bear right now because what he provides at his level is more unique, and furthermore because he doesn’t need to be a focal point in the passing game to have value there, his presence and value isn’t negated if we somehow end up with Brock Bowers next season. Drafting Bowers would be a much bigger threat to Claypool’s role than Kmet’s IMO.

I did not expect to see a reference to Ernie Conwell today. Or perhaps I should call him by his true name: Ernie Conwell - Cornerstone Piece of the Greatest Show on Turf.

[JibjeResearch]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Right. There’s genuine value for what we do on offense that Kmet’s presence on the field isn’t any kind of giveaway to what we’re doing on any given play. He’s one of the better blocking TEs in the league and is more than adequately capable as a receiver (and continues to progress there every year). He’s not a great player, but he’s a really solid one in all aspects of the position, and again, he’s just 24.

Between he, Mooney and Claypool I think he Kmet the clearest path to being a longer term Bear right now because what he provides at his level is more unique, and furthermore because he doesn’t need to be a focal point in the passing game to have value there, his presence and value isn’t negated if we somehow end up with Brock Bowers next season. Drafting Bowers would be a much bigger threat to Claypool’s role than Kmet’s IMO.

I did not expect to see a reference to Ernie Conwell today. Or perhaps I should call him by his true name: Ernie Conwell - Cornerstone Piece of the Greatest Show on Turf.

I think "a consistent 600 yards and 5 TDs guy" is good, and that is the 3rd receiver.  For the 3rd receiver, a TE1 is better than a WR3 or RB1.  The question is, is he worth $10M/year?  Will Kmet create a mismatch 2 out of 3 downs?

If yes, then Mooney or Claypool will win the WR2 and one will likely leave.

It would be a surprise if Mooney, Claypool, Whitehair, Kmet, and CB1 Johnson all stay for next season.

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by JibjeResearch

[Bigbear72]

46 minutes ago, JibjeResearch said:

I think "a consistent 600 yards and 5 TDs guy" is good, and that is the 3rd receiver.  For the 3rd receiver, a TE1 is better than a WR3 or RB1.  The question is, is he worth $10M/year?  Will Kmet create a mismatch 2 out of 3 downs?

If yes, then Mooney or Claypool will win the WR2 and one will likely leave.

It would be a surprise if Mooney, Claypool, Whitehair, Kmet, and CB1 Johnson all stay for next season.

 

Honestly, I don't think it is going to come down to whether or not we value Kmet over a WR3. It will be how much we value the TE position and the importance that role has in this offense. We still have to pay a WR2 and WR3 regardless. If one of the younger WRs show something of value it will come down to production and reliability between who Mooney and Claypool. I think Kmet is a separate issue completely.

[JibjeResearch]

2 hours ago, Bigbear72 said:

Honestly, I don't think it is going to come down to whether or not we value Kmet over a WR3. It will be how much we value the TE position and the importance that role has in this offense. We still have to pay a WR2 and WR3 regardless. If one of the younger WRs show something of value it will come down to production and reliability between who Mooney and Claypool. I think Kmet is a separate issue completely.

I think we agree on the general idea, but we worded it differently. 

The Bears paid for the WR1 Moore.  I think the Bears will pay a WR2  around $13M/year.  The rest will take less pay or move on.

[AZBearsFan]

8 hours ago, JibjeResearch said:

I think "a consistent 600 yards and 5 TDs guy" is good, and that is the 3rd receiver.  For the 3rd receiver, a TE1 is better than a WR3 or RB1.  The question is, is he worth $10M/year?  Will Kmet create a mismatch 2 out of 3 downs?

If yes, then Mooney or Claypool will win the WR2 and one will likely leave.

It would be a surprise if Mooney, Claypool, Whitehair, Kmet, and CB1 Johnson all stay for next season.

 

FWIW the statistical output you’re describing is basically that of Dawson Knox. He makes $13M/year as a tertiary piece in Buffalo and isn’t as good a blocker as Kmet is. 

[JibjeResearch]

28 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

FWIW the statistical output you’re describing is basically that of Dawson Knox. He makes $13M/year as a tertiary piece in Buffalo and isn’t as good a blocker as Kmet is. 

May be that is part of the reason why they lost Tremaine Edmunds.  We got Edmunds around $17M, which is better than Roquan at $20M because Edmunds defends the middle of the passing field better than Roquan (Like how Urlacher running back in the middle of the field---This is critical for a Tamap2).

There is only so much money for a team.  The best team collects good players within the cap limit.

[AZBearsFan]

15 hours ago, JibjeResearch said:

May be that is part of the reason why they lost Tremaine Edmunds.  We got Edmunds around $17M, which is better than Roquan at $20M because Edmunds defends the middle of the passing field better than Roquan (Like how Urlacher running back in the middle of the field---This is critical for a Tamap2).

There is only so much money for a team.  The best team collects good players within the cap limit.

I don’t disagree with that. There’s also only so much in parallel that can really be drawn between players based on salary at TE anyway since no team asks their TEs to do exactly the same thing. It’s always going to be less of an apples to apples comparison than other skill positions on offense. 

Specific to Kmet, if gets a new deal with us whether it’s $10M or $14M annually it’ll probably always look like a bad deal on paper over time because the stat sheet will never show all of the other things he provides for the team when he’s not being asked to catch the ball. That he improved our run game and our ability to disguise what our intentions are as far as run/pass while not being a liability in either and arguably an asset in both has very legitimate value. What that value is financially is for the team to decide, but it’s certainly not insignificant IMO. I’m a guy who hated the Kmet pick too. The receipts are in the old threads. He’s won me over. 

[Sugashane]

On 7/21/2023 at 7:52 AM, AZBearsFan said:

Right. There’s genuine value for what we do on offense that Kmet’s presence on the field isn’t any kind of giveaway to what we’re doing on any given play. He’s one of the better blocking TEs in the league and is more than adequately capable as a receiver (and continues to progress there every year). He’s not a great player, but he’s a really solid one in all aspects of the position, and again, he’s just 24.

The fact he is still just 24 still seems weird. As much as I disliked him being the pick in the 2nd he has made a ton of improvement. I hated the pick but he was a soft blocker who just seemed out of place. Dude put in the work to develop, so I'm a fan. 

On 7/21/2023 at 7:52 AM, AZBearsFan said:

Between he, Mooney and Claypool I think he Kmet the clearest path to being a longer term Bear right now because what he provides at his level is more unique, and furthermore because he doesn’t need to be a focal point in the passing game to have value there, his presence and value isn’t negated if we somehow end up with Brock Bowers next season. Drafting Bowers would be a much bigger threat to Claypool’s role than Kmet’s IMO.

Exactly. He has already won Poles over it seems (a former OL liking a solid blocking TE, not much of a shocker honestly) and Bowers is a pure move end IMO. 

On 7/21/2023 at 7:52 AM, AZBearsFan said:

I did not expect to see a reference to Ernie Conwell today. Or perhaps I should call him by his true name: Ernie Conwell - Cornerstone Piece of the Greatest Show on Turf.

Fun fact - His full position was TE/OT3/BAMF. Poor Greg Olsen just couldn't fill Ernie's shoes when Martz got here. 

[JibjeResearch]

5 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t disagree with that. There’s also only so much in parallel that can really be drawn between players based on salary at TE anyway since no team asks their TEs to do exactly the same thing. It’s always going to be less of an apples to apples comparison than other skill positions on offense. 

Specific to Kmet, if gets a new deal with us whether it’s $10M or $14M annually it’ll probably always look like a bad deal on paper over time because the stat sheet will never show all of the other things he provides for the team when he’s not being asked to catch the ball. That he improved our run game and our ability to disguise what our intentions are as far as run/pass while not being a liability in either and arguably an asset in both has very legitimate value. What that value is financially is for the team to decide, but it’s certainly not insignificant IMO. I’m a guy who hated the Kmet pick too. The receipts are in the old threads. He’s won me over. 

I'm neutral concerning Mooney, Kmet, Claypool, and J-Johnson.

I would keep J-Johnson for $13M/year.

A $13M/year goes to Mooney, Kmet, or Claypool ...whoever wins the 2nd receiving target after WR1 Moore.

The rest must take a cheaper pay or later bro lolz eheheheh😁

I would cut Whitehair next year to have a better chance of signing one of the guys above, who did not get the $13M/year, if he performed outstandingly at year end.  Keeping 3 of 4 is a success.  The best player, effective player for the Bears will stay.

We are in the business of paying players to win the SuperBowl, not paying players fairly ... lolz ahahahaha😂