Week 17: BAL VS MIA

[SalvadorsDeli]

53 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

1. It’s not just 2019 superstition. There’s empirical data that speaks to there being some evidence that resting starters in the final week is a heavy indicator for a lack of performance in the initial playoff game.

https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/gm-report/the-recent-history-of-resting-f-in-week-17-provides-a-warning-for-the-chiefs

Just two years ago this was the data. Now of course the sample size is small, but similar research going back further has shown similar numbers where below 50% of games are won in said scenarios.

This data isn't particularly useful. As the article acknowledges, most of the teams that didn't rest starters in the last week were teams that needed to win to wrap up their bye. No one would question playing starters in that scenario, and the entire approach to a game like from the team would be different. Once you sort those games out, the sample size is too small to draw any real conclusions. 

You can't really compare that to a team that already knows they're locked into their seeding and playing with the handbrake on because they've already got one eye on the postseason. There is just no realistic way to match the intensity that the Steelers are going to bring into that game where it's win or die for them and that's the gap that creates an injury risk for our guys. We can talk all we want about trying to get fired up about putting the Steelers away but our guys already put the T-Shirts on, they did the celebrations, they knew that the bye was the thing they were working towards, and the vibe will be different. 

The logic of all this doesn't really make any sense to begin with. One bye week, which we will have no matter what, won't do all of the things we're worried about, but two bye weeks magically kills all the team's momentum? If rust is anywhere near the problem people are worried about, then we are screwed no matter what because we won't be playing wild card weekend. But it's all just noise to begin with. 

Quote

3) We missed out on playoff runs because of Lamar injuries for sure, but what’s to stop Lamar from similarly getting hurt on the very first playoff snap after resting?

I mean if that happens, that sucks, but that's an unavoidable problem. If Lamar gets hurt against the Steelers it's an entirely avoidable problem that we created for ourselves. 

Add in the fact that we're looking at a rain/snow game with a wet/soggy field on a short week and putting Lamar out there is just bad bad management. Steelers knocking him out of the playoffs would be their Super Bowl. Most guys will have to play at least some because that's just the way the roster rules shake out-and thus most players will get some level of reps to sharpen up/avoid rust or whatever. Reality is, that probably means SOMEONE will get injured in a game that's meaningless for us, no matter what - the only question is whether we can do something to prevent our only irreplaceable player from being that guy. If Harbaugh is really worried about Lamar not being sufficiently prepared for the playoffs, he really needs to figure out a solution that isn't "turn TJ Watt loose on him." 

Edited January 3 by SalvadorsDeli

[diamondbull424]

10 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

This data isn't particularly useful. As the article acknowledges, most of the teams that didn't rest starters in the last week were teams that needed to win to wrap up their bye. No one would question playing starters in that scenario, and the entire approach to a game like from the team would be different. Once you sort those games out, the sample size is too small to draw any real conclusions. 

You can't really compare that to a team that already knows they're locked into their seeding and playing with the handbrake on because they've already got one eye on the postseason. There is just no realistic way to match the intensity that the Steelers are going to bring into that game where it's win or die for them and that's the gap that creates an injury risk for our guys. We can talk all we want about trying to get fired up about putting the Steelers away but our guys already put the T-Shirts on, they did the celebrations, they knew that the bye was the thing they were working towards, and the vibe will be different. 

The logic of all this doesn't really make any sense to begin with. One bye week, which we will have no matter what, won't do all of the things we're worried about, but two bye weeks magically kills all the team's momentum? If rust is anywhere near the problem people are worried about, then we are screwed no matter what because we won't be playing wild card weekend. But it's all just noise to begin with. 

The sample size is small on the end of teams getting the bye and being in this predicament, but it’s large enough on the other end. We know playing to win is an effective strategy, we just don’t know if playing not to lose is an entirely terrible strategy or if it was just terrible for the few who have done it. It’s not conclusive, but the evidence is there that there’s at least a trend.

Whats more other studies have went back further so it’s not just this study/article.

13 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Add in the fact that we're looking at a rain/snow game with a wet/soggy field on a short week and putting Lamar out there is just bad bad management.

This changes the calculus some. I wasn’t aware of the weather concerns. With this being the case, this would potentially change my mind. It’s harder for Lamar to protect himself in bad weather.

So the risk increases enough where I think it probably would not be worth the reward.

[diamondbull424]

The other counter argument to the loss of momentum will be the fact that enough other teams will likely be benching their starters as well.

Browns, Chiefs are along with the Ravens locked into their seeds and thus likely to rest in the AFC. The 49ers and Lions are also locked into their seeds. The Rams aren’t locked in but will either be the 6th or 7th seed.

[SalvadorsDeli]

Thank the lawd. 

[Ray Reed]

Tyler Huntley gonna end the Steelers playoff hopes lmao

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

5 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

Tyler Huntley gonna end the Steelers playoff hopes lmao

Let's just hope TJ Watt doesn't start injuring people.