New years mock sim

[rlon]

17

Joe Alt

OT | Notre Dame

A+

48

T'Vondre Sweat

DL | Texas

B+

82

Sedrick Van Pran

IOL | Georgia

A+

117

Cam Hart

CB | Notre Dame

A+

120

Tommy Eichenberg

LB | Ohio State

A+

194

Sione Vaki

S | Utah

A+

234

Moose Muhammad III

WR | Texas A&M

A+

[warfelg]

Alt ain't making it to 17 and SVP won't be there in the 3rd.  Some of these sites are really broken with these valuations.

[rlon]

2 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Alt ain't making it to 17 and SVP won't be there in the 3rd.  Some of these sites are really broken with these valuations.

Yeah…lol…and this is one of the more realistic simulations, as opposed to when I trade down and end up with 15 draft picks and virtually  the same quality of players at the top. Was targeting Latham at 17 but he was gone…nice consolation prize, no? I don’t know if Van Pran will be available, but I think he may no longer be the top rated center come draft time. I want that Kenny Powers kid ;)…

I kind of liked the last 4 picks in this sim…however.

[warfelg]

25 minutes ago, rlon said:

Yeah…lol…and this is one of the more realistic simulations, as opposed to when I trade down and end up with 15 draft picks and virtually  the same quality of players at the top. Was targeting Latham at 17 but he was gone…nice consolation prize, no? I don’t know if Van Pran will be available, but I think he may no longer be the top rated center come draft time. I want that Kenny Powers kid ;)…

I kind of liked the last 4 picks in this sim…however.

I know what site you were using. It's a broken model of how they come up with draft positions, because they base it on what other people do.  So it's easily put off kilter for values.  It's why I like PFN's and PFF's.  Its built on their own stuff along with other mocks out there to give value.  Plus there's enough teams that need OT in front of us like Washington, NYJ, LAC, Chi, GB, NO, LV that I doubt Alt would make it past all of them, even if you push other positions up over them due to value (unlikely).

I get the not wanting to trade down and have 20 7th round picks, it's the other "broken" part of these sim's is they don't put any value on next year picks (I often find you need to go 2 rounds over to match value, as in 2024 7th = 2025 5th).  But I really can see Khan moving down at some point this draft to pick up extra assets.  I think that extra 4th round pick will be used to either move up in the 2nd or move down for a 5th and 2025 pick.

Just for reference, since I don't post full draft worth mocks, here's what I see happening in the early 1st round:

1 - Chi - Caleb Williams QB USC

2 - Ari - Marvin Harrison Jr WR OSU

3 - NE (traded from Washington) - Drake Maye QB UNC

4 - Was (traded from NE) - Joe Alt LT ND

5 - NYG - Jaylen Daniels QB LSU

6 - LAC - Olumuyiwa Fashanu LT PSU

7 - Atl (traded from Ten) - Laiatu Latu EDGE UCLA

8 - NYJ - JC Latham OT Alabama

9 - Chi - Rome Odunze WR Washington

10 - Ten (traded from Atl) - Keon Coleman WR FSU

11 - NO - Nate Wiggins CB Clemson

12 - Indy (Trade from GB) - Brock Bowers TE Georgia

13 - LV - Jer'Zhan Newton DT Illinois

14 - Den - Michael Penix Jr QB Washington

15 - Min - JJ McCarthy QB Michigan

16 - Jax - Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama

So that leaves when we come up on the board, ranked based on my personal big board:

Cooper DeJean CB Iowa

Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State

Kingsley Suamataia OT BYU

Chop Robinson EDGE PSU

Tyler Nubin S Minnesota

Jared Verse EDGE FSU

 

[3rivers]

34 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Alt ain't making it to 17 and SVP won't be there in the 3rd.  Some of these sites are really broken with these valuations.

is it possible to get C SVP,  RT Fuaga  ( or other RT then Jones to LT ) and DT Sweat if we trade down a bit , then move up a bit

Edited December 30, 2023 by 3rivers

[warfelg]

2 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

is it possible to get C SVP,  RT Fuaga  ( or other RT then Jones to LT ) and DT Sweat if we trade down a bit , then move up a bit

Sure anything is possible.  Likely? No.

[rlon]

2 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I know what site you were using. It's a broken model of how they come up with draft positions, because they base it on what other people do.  So it's easily put off kilter for values.  It's why I like PFN's and PFF's.  Its built on their own stuff along with other mocks out there to give value.  Plus there's enough teams that need OT in front of us like Washington, NYJ, LAC, Chi, GB, NO, LV that I doubt Alt would make it past all of them, even if you push other positions up over them due to value (unlikely).

I get the not wanting to trade down and have 20 7th round picks, it's the other "broken" part of these sim's is they don't put any value on next year picks (I often find you need to go 2 rounds over to match value, as in 2024 7th = 2025 5th).  But I really can see Khan moving down at some point this draft to pick up extra assets.  I think that extra 4th round pick will be used to either move up in the 2nd or move down for a 5th and 2025 pick.

Just for reference, since I don't post full draft worth mocks, here's what I see happening in the early 1st round:

1 - Chi - Caleb Williams QB USC

2 - Ari - Marvin Harrison Jr WR OSU

3 - NE (traded from Washington) - Drake Maye QB UNC

4 - Was (traded from NE) - Joe Alt LT ND

5 - NYG - Jaylen Daniels QB LSU

6 - LAC - Olumuyiwa Fashanu LT PSU

7 - Atl (traded from Ten) - Laiatu Latu EDGE UCLA

8 - NYJ - JC Latham OT Alabama

9 - Chi - Rome Odunze WR Washington

10 - Ten (traded from Atl) - Keon Coleman WR FSU

11 - NO - Nate Wiggins CB Clemson

12 - Indy (Trade from GB) - Brock Bowers TE Georgia

13 - LV - Jer'Zhan Newton DT Illinois

14 - Den - Michael Penix Jr QB Washington

15 - Min - JJ McCarthy QB Michigan

16 - Jax - Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama

So that leaves when we come up on the board, ranked based on my personal big board:

Cooper DeJean CB Iowa

Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State

Kingsley Suamataia OT BYU

Chop Robinson EDGE PSU

Tyler Nubin S Minnesota

Jared Verse EDGE FSU

Fuaga is actually my realistic target, plug and play at RT for us. Forget about the edge, it drives me crazy that so many sites are still picking edge for us first in their mocks. Dejean and Nubin are both extremely intriguing options to strengthen this secondary. So, those three would be the consideration, for me, from your above break down. By careful everyone, Fuaga spell checks to guava…which is delicious but won’t solidify our line.

[warfelg]

19 minutes ago, rlon said:

Fuaga is actually my realistic target, plug and play at RT for us. Forget about the edge, it drives me crazy that so many sites are still picking edge for us first in their mocks. Dejean and Nubin are both extremely intriguing options to strengthen this secondary. So, those three would be the consideration, for me, from your above break down. By careful everyone, Fuaga spell checks to guava…which is delicious but won’t solidify our line.

That’s my general big board not a Steelers centric. I think Robinson and Verse could could offer opportunities to move down because Fuaga and Kingsley are more RTs and DeJean is more a SS. Pass rushers are valued fee higher than those positions so we could be in a good trade down spot by 3-5 slots, still get great player value, and get future value as well. 

I also wouldn’t rule out that Nix and McCarthey could be targets for other teams here and that we should be looking at what front playoff teams need/want those guys. 

Long story short - were in draft no man’s land. Lots of guys I like who it would be too early for, too many guys would be gone that are good for us. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by warfelg

[jebrick]

30 minutes ago, warfelg said:

 

So that leaves when we come up on the board, ranked based on my personal big board:

 

Cooper DeJean CB Iowa

Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State

Kingsley Suamataia OT BYU

Chop Robinson EDGE PSU

Tyler Nubin S Minnesota

Jared Verse EDGE FSU

 

I'm not a big fan of DeJean.  At least in the 1st.

Just me but I would have Mins in front of Fuaga and defiantly ahead of Suamataia   but YMMV.

None of the EDGE rushers fit a need at present.  Especially if they keep Golden.

Nubin is interesting but not in the 1st round or this high.

I would be bummed if the board fell this way and they did not move up for Wiggins but ...

Malik Nabers, WR LSU would have to be considered here.

 

I would go with either Mins or Fuaga at this point.  I do not like any of the DBs this high.  I am not a fan of taking a WR in the 1st unless they are a total freak ( MHJr.).

This draft is deep in day 2 picks.  I would love to see a trade down to pick up more day 2 picks.

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by jebrick

[warfelg]

24 minutes ago, jebrick said:

I'm not a big fan of DeJean.  At least in the 1st.

Just me but I would have Mins in front of Fuaga and defiantly ahead of Suamataia   but YMMV.

None of the EDGE rushers fit a need at present.  Especially if they keep Golden.

Nubin is interesting but not in the 1st round or this high.

I would be bummed if the board fell this way and they did not move up for Wiggins but ...

Malik Nabers, WR LSU would have to be considered here.

 

I would go with either Mins or Fuaga at this point.  I do not like any of the DBs this high.  I am not a fan of taking a WR in the 1st unless they are a total freak ( MHJr.).

This draft is deep in day 2 picks.  I would love to see a trade down to pick up more day 2 picks.

 

Disagree on DeJean. He’s super versatile. I think he’ll have a Derwin James like NFL impact. 

I wouldn’t be upset on the Mims being higher. I bounce back and forth on him. 

I feel like you’re sleeping on Nubins TBH. He’s not pick 17 but certainly a 1st rounder. 

WR is very top end and one-trick-pony heavy. I think MHJr is on his own tier. But Nabers, Coleman, Odunze would all be fighting for WR1 and all be top 20 picks in any other draft.