FINAL 2024 MOCK OFF-SEASON

[Karnage84]

Now that we're in draft week, this is going to be my last in depth mock off-season. I generally will throw out other mocks working out different ideas. This is more of a marco overview and trying to bring in other pieces such a FA's and UDFA's after the draft. 

So here goes:

ROUND 1

I am not going to be doing a mock but instead projecting which players will be taken by the time the Lions pick at #29 comes around. I'll never rule out a Brad Holmes special with a trade up but we're missing a 4th round pick and there should be a handful of players that drop toward the bottom of the round thanks to the plethora of QB's expected to be taken alongside the depth of the WR and OL classes. 

QB (4): Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy > Michael Penix, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler available

RB (0): 

WR (5): Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr, AD Mitchell> Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette Available

TE (1): Brock Bowers

OT (6): Joe Alt, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga, Troy Fautanu, Amarius Mims, JC Latham

IOL (2) - Graham Barton, Jackson Powers-Johnson > Christian Haynes, Zach Frazier Available

DT (1) - Byron Murphy II > Johnny Newton

EDGE (4) - Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu, Chop Robinson

LB (0): Edgerrin Cooper, Payton Wilson, Junior Colson available

CB (5): Terrion Arnold, Quinyon Mitchell, Nate Wiggins, Cooper DeJean, Kool-Aid McKinstry

S(0)

[Just Want A Title]

Kooaid McKinstry's stock, at least in the media has taken a bit of a tumble as we get closer to the draft.  Maybe it is just the media pundits or maybe NFL teams have real concerns but he might be within striking distance or even fall to to #29.  

On the other hand, two edge players that seem to be rising as we get closer to the draft:  Marshawn Kneeland and Jalyx Hunt.  A number of media projections have had Marshawn Kneeland late in Round 1 as high as #28.  He could be the complimentary EDGE player the Lions hoped they were getting with Josh Pascal.

With Jalyx Hunt, I have seen him go from being project to Rounds 4 and 5, to Round 3 and now getting consideration in late Round 2.  I think folks are realizing he may not be quite as raw as they had first assumed.  His physical tools and upside are undeniable.  

Marshawn Kneeland has a higher floor and will probably have an immediate impact with the Lions.  Jalyx Hunt would probably have a more limited role initially, but his ceiling is sky-high.  Given the fact that we already have Josh Pascal on our roster, I think I would prefer a player with a different playing style to go along with his enormous upside in Jalyx Hunt.

[detfan782004]

Trade down to second. Gain draft value and the difference in talent at 29 - mid second isn't a wide disparity 

[Just Want A Title]

12 minutes ago, detfan782004 said:

Trade down to second. Gain draft value and the difference in talent at 29 - mid second isn't a wide disparity 

A trade back scenario would bring more draft capital but some positions are top-heavy and the dropoff is significant.  Once you get past Darius Robinson and Marshawn Kneeland, you are left with EDGE rushers that are under-sized/rotational players or a player like Jalyx Hunt who has a ton of upside but may take some time to develop.  

It seems like it is a similar story at CB.  Once you get past Max Melton, there are a lot of CBs who are under-sized/slot CB types or bigger CBs who could be good playing press man but have some problems covering vertical routes that will be left in the 2nd and third round.  TJ Tampa has the size and length you look for and profiles to a Carlton Davis type of CB.  Khyree Jackson and Cam hart are similar players.  These types of CBs can be successful but with the WRs college programs are churning out, you need CBs who can mirror, flip their hips and cover at all three levels of the field.  Finding CBs with speed later in the draft is probably going to be done by mining HBCU and other smaller school talent.  Luckily, there are CBs like Willie Drew and Kendall Bohler who might be available.

[Karnage84]

40 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Kooaid McKinstry's stock, at least in the media has taken a bit of a tumble as we get closer to the draft.  Maybe it is just the media pundits or maybe NFL teams have real concerns but he might be within striking distance or even fall to to #29.  

On the other hand, two edge players that seem to be rising as we get closer to the draft:  Marshawn Kneeland and Jalyx Hunt.  A number of media projections have had Marshawn Kneeland late in Round 1 as high as #28.  He could be the complimentary EDGE player the Lions hoped they were getting with Josh Pascal.

With Jalyx Hunt, I have seen him go from being project to Rounds 4 and 5, to Round 3 and now getting consideration in late Round 2.  I think folks are realizing he may not be quite as raw as they had first assumed.  His physical tools and upside are undeniable.  

Marshawn Kneeland has a higher floor and will probably have an immediate impact with the Lions.  Jalyx Hunt would probably have a more limited role initially, but his ceiling is sky-high.  Given the fact that we already have Josh Pascal on our roster, I think I would prefer a player with a different playing style to go along with his enormous upside in Jalyx Hunt.

I disagree on Kool-Aid. I think he answered the questions related to his injury, competitiveness and speed by running 4.47 while still dealing with his foot injury. Looking at the consensus board, they have him listed as #24 overall and there are several mocks that have him at #22 to the Eagles, #26 to the Commanders and Bucs or #27 to the Cardinals. I'd be surprised if he was available to us at #29. 

Kneeland is more effective as a stand up rusher than he is with his hands in the dirt. When I've watched his highlights, that's all he's really doing when he's making a play. I watched his tape vs Iowa (historically has OL that play in the league) and he was getting washed out playing down but was effective coming from other spots as a stand up rusher. Someone could take a swing at him in round 1 but I don't think he fits with what the Lions will want opposite of Aidan. They want Aidan in that weakside DE role getting one-on-one matchups. 

Hunt is pretty raw. He could be a swing at bottom of round 3 or round 4. 

[Karnage84]

Pick #29 - Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri: I've been back and forth on this for a while. I think I've settled on Robinson being the pick. Especially if the board falls like this. 

He is a massive human being at 6'5 and (reportedly) around 290 lbs of pure muscle after weighing in at 285 at the combine. He has long arms at nearly 35". He's a pure power player that can just dominate the man opposite of him. He's going to play in Cominsky's role and upgrade the Strongside DE role opposite of Hutchinson. He's being mischaracterized by being pegged into the same group as guys like Dallas Turner or Jared Verse. That's not his game - he's principally going to be playing as a 5T and then slide inside on passing downs. His pressure rate is around 13.5% with sack rate of 3.1% against SEC level of competition. 

We've seen the Lions do this with Cominsky in different combinations. He's going to command a lot more attention which should help to free up 97. Cominsky is a UFA in 2025 as is Levi. Robinson gives them depth and a future starter who isn't going to be forced to play a major role right out of the gate if he isn't ready. His body type is different than Paschal's and the Lions have utilized Cominsky and Paschal on the field at the same time in different/mirror roles (ex. both playing 4i on passing downs). He is a high motor, high character player and he's from Michigan. 

Pick #61 - Mike Sainristil, SCB, Michigan: He's probably not here by this time next week. He's a R2 player that could be taken somewhere in the middle of the round or possibly later as he is a slot only guy that is lacking in size. The Lions have met with him twice (top 30 and local visit) and have a need to add talent in the secondary. The addition of Sainristil would open up Brian Branch into more of a rover role as a defensive weapon. The Lions could move up in round 2 to take him but he feels like a guy they're targeting. He's an instant starter that could have a Branch-like impact on the defense as a rookie.

TRADE

Pick #73 and #201 to Arizona for pick #90 and pick #104 > The Lions acquire a mid-round pick to bridge the gap between their 3rd rounder and pick #164. 

Pick #90 - Renardo Green, CB, Florida State: I like Green a lot and expect that he can be an effective player in man-to-man. I believe that he can play outside but arguably could also play in the slot or even moved into safety. The scheme versatillity is a bonus. I believe the Lions will be adding a veteran to play outside. This would allow someone like Green the time to develop while coming in and getting experience as a depth player. 

Pick#104 - Brenden Rice, WR, USC: Rice offers up the physical tools that the Lions are currently lacking with the loss of Josh Reynolds. Rice was relatively productive with 12 TD's as Caleb Williams' favourite red zone target. He's 6'2 and over 200 lbs, so he does have good size for when the Lions are in the red zone. He struggles to gain separation and will be more of a contested catch guy. He's going to compete with DPJ, Tre'Quan Smith and Antoine Green to be that bigger body WR opposite of St. Brown and Jamo. 

Pick #164 - Zak Zinter, OG/OC, Michigan: Zinter is here as a result of a deep class and because he's coming off of injury. With guys like Glasgow and Zeitler on the roster, Zinter can learn and develop while also getting healthy. 

Pick #205 - Sataoa Laumea, OG, Utah: A big and powerful OG that should be a driver in the run game. He's experienced as an OT but doesn't have the ability to stay outside. Consensus board has him at pick #159 and he appears to be moving up. He's likely not here but he was available and addresses OL depth. 

Pick #249 - Anthony Gould, WR, Oregon State: I've touched on Gould in another mock. He is brought in to compete on special teams as a returner and provide insurance against an injury to Kalif Raymond. He has already met with the Lions and selecting him in the bottom of Round 7 ensures he's a Lions as opposed to competing for him as a UDFA. 

 

Edited April 23 by Karnage84

[Just Want A Title]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

I disagree on Kool-Aid. I think he answered the questions related to his injury, competitiveness and speed by running 4.47 while still dealing with his foot injury. Looking at the consensus board, they have him listed as #24 overall and there are several mocks that have him at #22 to the Eagles, #26 to the Commanders and Bucs or #27 to the Cardinals. I'd be surprised if he was available to us at #29. 

Kneeland is more effective as a stand up rusher than he is with his hands in the dirt. When I've watched his highlights, that's all he's really doing when he's making a play. I watched his tape vs Iowa (historically has OL that play in the league) and he was getting washed out playing down but was effective coming from other spots as a stand up rusher. Someone could take a swing at him in round 1 but I don't think he fits with what the Lions will want opposite of Aidan. They want Aidan in that weakside DE role getting one-on-one matchups. 

Hunt is pretty raw. He could be a swing at bottom of round 3 or round 4. 

I am not saying I agree with the media pundits.  However, if the Lions felt strongly about McKinstry they wouldn't have to move up too far or give up too much to get him.  I doubt most of us thought we would have any shot at drafting him at all.  Tre'Davious White was taken at 27.  If the Lions took McKinstry I could see him having a similar career arc and out-performing his draft position.

I think Marshawn Kneeland, from a physical perspective, a lot like Matthew Judon.  He doesn't have the same play strength coming out of college but his movement skills are better.  He didn't flash the dominance of Matthew Judon in college but I suspect teams see enough similarities to make sure they don't overlook him in the same way Matthew Judon was overlooked.  Interestingly enough, I have seen a couple of folks describe him as a "Ravens-type of player".  I don't think he will be as good as Matthew Judon but If becoming a 7-9 sack per year player that sets/maintains the edge at a high level is probably a reasonable expectation.

Jalyx Hunt is a really interesting prospect with rare physical tools.  I had him in my final mock at #73.  My reasoning:  He is exactly the type of high-ceiling player that teams like the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens take every year and turn them into solid or really good players.  The four teams that would take in in the 3rd-round:  Cincinati, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Ravens.  He never played DE in his life prior to his last two years at HCU and was surprisingly effective and at times dominant.  He isn't just a one-trick pony.  He is adept at dropping into coverage and his TFL numbers show that he can be disruptive in variety of ways which is something the Lions value (like most teams).  He is raw but not quite as raw as he is made out to be.  I see him going in the third round but would have no issues if the Lions took him at 73 because he his ceiling as an all-around EDGE/DE is higher than Mo Kamara or Jaden Ellis. 

[Sllim Pickens]

4 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Now that we're in draft week, this is going to be my last in depth mock off-season. I generally will throw out other mocks working out different ideas. This is more of a marco overview and trying to bring in other pieces such a FA's and UDFA's after the draft. 

So here goes:

ROUND 1

I am not going to be doing a mock but instead projecting which players will be taken by the time the Lions pick at #29 comes around. I'll never rule out a Brad Holmes special with a trade up but we're missing a 4th round pick and there should be a handful of players that drop toward the bottom of the round thanks to the plethora of QB's expected to be taken alongside the depth of the WR and OL classes. 

QB (4): Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy > Michael Penix, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler available

RB (0): 

WR (5): Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr, AD Mitchell> Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette Available

TE (1): Brock Bowers

OT (6): Joe Alt, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga, Troy Fautanu, Amarius Mims, JC Latham

IOL (2) - Graham Barton, Jackson Powers-Johnson > Christian Haynes, Zach Frazier Available

DT (1) - Byron Murphy II > Johnny Newton

EDGE (4) - Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu, Chop Robinson

LB (0): Edgerrin Cooper, Payton Wilson, Junior Colson available

CB (5): Terrion Arnold, Quinyon Mitchell, Nate Wiggins, Cooper DeJean, Kool-Aid McKinstry

S(0)

In this scenario, I think there are 5 or 6 guys we will be looking at, which means a trade down could be in play if they don't love one more than the others.  However as seen last year, that is a strong possibility given we "reached" for Gibbs, Campbell, and Laporta.  The targets IMO will be:

Tyler Nubin - Add depth to S and prepare for Iffy to leave or to replace Kerby if he doesn't step his game up. Best S in the class and I know Holmes likes the best at a position in a draft.  Seems like the type of guy who would be higher on our board than the media. 

Zach Frazier - Might be the top C in the draft so wouldn't shock me if Holmes had him at 1.  The need and talent seem to line up here. 

Darius Robinson - You have mentioned all the reasons, no need to elaborate.

Braden Fiske - Similar build to Robinson but faster and more athletic overall.  Would fill the same role as Robinson replacing/preparing for the departure of Cominsky.  I think I prefer Fiske to Robinson for upside purposes as I think the athleticism provides more flexibility and speed up the middle. If we pass on both of these guys in the first, I think Brandon Dorlus is the target to fill that role that we could target in the second. 

Ladd McConkey - I think he is the best WR available after the bunch taken.  Troy Franklin might be in the mix as well but his 10 yard split is scary given how quickly you have to get the ball out in the NFL.  I don't think WR will be our target in the first but if it is I think it will either be Brian Thomas Jr or McConkey if either are available.  

Kamari Lassiter - I think he is the next best CB for our system with the ability to play both man and zone as well as defend the run.  He lacked turnovers in college but the cover skills are there.  Could use an extra 5-10lbs but he is similar size to the guys we have been running out there so don't think his size will be an issue. 

 

 

Of that group I think I would order them Frazier, Fiske, Robinson, Nubin, Lassiter, McConkey as the order I would prefer them.  I think that if all of these guys are similarly rated, Holmes would move down 5-7 spots and grab one since none seem to stick out as elite talents.  Even if you look at Gibbs last year he had elite explosiveness that set him apart but he was lower projected because of the position and I don't see that here other than maybe Frazier. 

 

 

 

[Just Want A Title]

4 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I disagree on Kool-Aid. I think he answered the questions related to his injury, competitiveness and speed by running 4.47 while still dealing with his foot injury. Looking at the consensus board, they have him listed as #24 overall and there are several mocks that have him at #22 to the Eagles, #26 to the Commanders and Bucs or #27 to the Cardinals. I'd be surprised if he was available to us at #29. 

Kneeland is more effective as a stand up rusher than he is with his hands in the dirt. When I've watched his highlights, that's all he's really doing when he's making a play. I watched his tape vs Iowa (historically has OL that play in the league) and he was getting washed out playing down but was effective coming from other spots as a stand up rusher. Someone could take a swing at him in round 1 but I don't think he fits with what the Lions will want opposite of Aidan. They want Aidan in that weakside DE role getting one-on-one matchups. 

Hunt is pretty raw. He could be a swing at bottom of round 3 or round 4. 

The one question I have on Koolaid McKinstry is how the Jones Fracture affects his long speed.  Apparently he played with the Jones Fracture for an extended period of time in his last season.  Would the Jones fracture hinder his long speed prior to the surgery?  Once the fracture is fixed and heals properly, will his long speed improved from the 4.47 time he logged at his pro day?  Even in the age of Google, this is hard to figure out.

Edited April 23 by Just Want A Title

[Just Want A Title]

2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Pick #29 - Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri: I've been back and forth on this for a while. I think I've settled on Robinson being the pick. Especially if the board falls like this. 

He is a massive human being at 6'5 and (reportedly) around 290 lbs of pure muscle after weighing in at 285 at the combine. He has long arms at nearly 35". He's a pure power player that can just dominate the man opposite of him. He's going to play in Cominsky's role and upgrade the Strongside DE role opposite of Hutchinson. He's being mischaracterized by being pegged into the same group as guys like Dallas Turner or Jared Verse. That's not his game - he's principally going to be playing as a 5T and then slide inside on passing downs. His pressure rate is around 13.5% with sack rate of 3.1% against SEC level of competition. 

We've seen the Lions do this with Cominsky in different combinations. He's going to command a lot more attention which should help to free up 97. Cominsky is a UFA in 2025 as is Levi. Robinson gives them depth and a future starter who isn't going to be forced to play a major role right out of the gate if he isn't ready. His body type is different than Paschal's and the Lions have utilized Cominsky and Paschal on the field at the same time in different/mirror roles (ex. both playing 4i on passing downs). He is a high motor, high character player and he's from Michigan. 

Pick #61 - Mike Sainristil, SCB, Michigan: He's probably not here by this time next week. He's a R2 player that could be taken somewhere in the middle of the round or possibly later as he is a slot only guy that is lacking in size. The Lions have met with him twice (top 30 and local visit) and have a need to add talent in the secondary. The addition of Sainristil would open up Brian Branch into more of a rover role as a defensive weapon. The Lions could move up in round 2 to take him but he feels like a guy they're targeting. He's an instant starter that could have a Branch-like impact on the defense as a rookie.

TRADE

Pick #73 and #201 to Arizona for pick #90 and pick #104 > The Lions acquire a mid-round pick to bridge the gap between their 3rd rounder and pick #164. 

Pick #90 - Renardo Green, CB, Florida State: I like Green a lot and expect that he can be an effective player in man-to-man. I believe that he can play outside but arguably could also play in the slot or even moved into safety. The scheme versatillity is a bonus. I believe the Lions will be adding a veteran to play outside. This would allow someone like Green the time to develop while coming in and getting experience as a depth player. 

Pick#104 - Brenden Rice, WR, USC: Rice offers up the physical tools that the Lions are currently lacking with the loss of Josh Reynolds. Rice was relatively productive with 12 TD's as Caleb Williams' favourite red zone target. He's 6'2 and over 200 lbs, so he does have good size for when the Lions are in the red zone. He struggles to gain separation and will be more of a contested catch guy. He's going to compete with DPJ, Tre'Quan Smith and Antoine Green to be that bigger body WR opposite of St. Brown and Jamo. 

Pick #164 - Zak Zinter, OG/OC, Michigan: Zinter is here as a result of a deep class and because he's coming off of injury. With guys like Glasgow and Zeitler on the roster, Zinter can learn and develop while also getting healthy. 

Pick #205 - Sataoa Laumea, OG, Utah: A big and powerful OG that should be a driver in the run game. He's experienced as an OT but doesn't have the ability to stay outside. Consensus board has him at pick #159 and he appears to be moving up. He's likely not here but he was available and addresses OL depth. 

Pick #249 - Anthony Gould, WR, Oregon State: I've touched on Gould in another mock. He is brought in to compete on special teams as a returner and provide insurance against an injury to Kalif Raymond. He has already met with the Lions and selecting him in the bottom of Round 7 ensures he's a Lions as opposed to competing for him as a UDFA. 

 

I like the Renardo Green selection.  He is one of those players that does everything really well even if he isn't necessarily spectacular.  Mike Sainristil's size does make tough to project him as anything but a slot CB but given the fact that he has only been playing CB for two years, he might have enough room for improvement to see some time on the boundary also.  Amik Robertson makes it work so it could work for Mike Sainristil as well.

[Karnage84]

34 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Darius Robinson - You have mentioned all the reasons, no need to elaborate.

Braden Fiske - Similar build to Robinson but faster and more athletic overall.  Would fill the same role as Robinson replacing/preparing for the departure of Cominsky.  I think I prefer Fiske to Robinson for upside purposes as I think the athleticism provides more flexibility and speed up the middle. If we pass on both of these guys in the first, I think Brandon Dorlus is the target to fill that role that we could target in the second. 

I think the size and length of Robinson with his long arms and his power just over powers what Fiske brings to the table. It allows him to be dominant off the edge against OT's. Fiske feels like he's going to be forced to play inside only and would struggle even in a 5T against quality NFL OT's. After watching more and more of his tape, I feel like Robinson plays faster and more explosive than his testing. 

I generally like your list. You're probably right about a trade down. I can see the Raiders looking to jump back into Round 1 to select a guy like Penix. I honestly don't see the Broncos or the Raiders taking Penix or Nix at #12 or #13. The Broncos don't have a 2nd round pick this year, so I don't see the Lions trading down with them. 

I'm just putting my chips in on Darius Robinson. I've battled with this over the last couple of months. I've settled on him as "my guy" and I wouldn't want to bypass that by losing him in a trade down. I'm expecting the Lions could acquire additional draft capital in a trade down (I seem to do that at pick #73), so they're grabbing him later. 

[Karnage84]

6 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

I like the Renardo Green selection.  He is one of those players that does everything really well even if he isn't necessarily spectacular.  Mike Sainristil's size does make tough to project him as anything but a slot CB but given the fact that he has only been playing CB for two years, he might have enough room for improvement to see some time on the boundary also.  Amik Robertson makes it work so it could work for Mike Sainristil as well.

I'm hearing that NFL teams LOVE Sainristil and he's even had some 1st round buzz. There's talk that the Lions love him and he could even be our pick at #29. I personally think that's quite rich. If we traded down, maybe he could be our first selection or we trade up from 61 and take him in the middle of round 2. 

[detfan782004]

6 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I'm hearing that NFL teams LOVE Sainristil and he's even had some 1st round buzz. There's talk that the Lions love him and he could even be our pick at #29. I personally think that's quite rich. If we traded down, maybe he could be our first selection or we trade up from 61 and take him in the middle of round 2. 

I would throw up if they took him at 29

[Just Want A Title]

40 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I'm hearing that NFL teams LOVE Sainristil and he's even had some 1st round buzz. There's talk that the Lions love him and he could even be our pick at #29. I personally think that's quite rich. If we traded down, maybe he could be our first selection or we trade up from 61 and take him in the middle of round 2. 

I can see why teams like him even if he is under-sized.  Football IQ counts for a lot.  I could see him doing a lot of damage on teams that run a lot of zone defense like the Steelers.  I could see him going in late Round 2 or in Round 3 somewhere.  Slot/Nickel CBs are basically starters so the value proposition isn't crazy.

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, detfan782004 said:

I would throw up if they took him at 29

Agreed.  But thats also sort of how I felt with Gibbs last year so I would have to let it play out.