Watching the other five 2024 1st round rookie QB's....

[vike daddy]

 

I've been meaning to start a thread like this for awhile, so this prediction from The 33rd team is a good way to start it.

this thread will serve as a discussion site for watching and waiting for Williams, Daniels, Maye, Penix, and Nix to get the starting nod, and how they perform for their host teams through 2024. or not, should they remain as backups.

Edited July 7 by vike daddy

[SteelKing728]

I'm not really a fan at all of Williams or Nix. They might prove me wrong, but William's attitude and propensity to always try and play hero ball won't work in the NFL.

For Nix, I don't think Sean Payton is going to turn him into Drew Brees. I think it'll be more of the same in Denver that we saw with Russell Wilson. That, coupled with the lack of talent around Nix and his age, I think he'll be nothing more than a good backup or bridge QB. 

I'm super intrigued with Maye. New England still needs to get more offensive help but I think he can be special for a long time in the NFL.

Daniels gives me RG3 vibes, and not just because he plays for Washington. If he can stay healthy with such a small frame, I think he'll be a solid QB. Otherwise, he could flame out (and maybe Washington's other rookie QB turns out to be the better player for the third time lol)

Finally, I really like Michael Penix Jr. I just wish he didn't go to Atlanta. I think he could have immediate success, but he'll be on the bench for at least 2 years behind Cousins. It just doesn't make sense, but when it's finally his turn, I think he'll be a good QB that puts up a few top 10 level seasons in the NFL.

[vike daddy]

3 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

Finally, I really like Michael Penix Jr. I just wish he didn't go to Atlanta. I think he could have immediate success, but he'll be on the bench for at least 2 years behind Cousins. It just doesn't make sense, but when it's finally his turn, I think he'll be a good QB that puts up a few top 10 level seasons in the NFL.

you're writing with certainty when there is none.

Cousins could get seriously hurt and retire. Cousins could get traded after one year to a QB hungry team with big bucks on hand. Cousins could play flat and they bring in Penix earlier than anticipated.

plenty of variables out there.

[SteelKing728]

35 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

you're writing with certainty when there is none.

Cousins could get seriously hurt and retire. Cousins could get traded after one year to a QB hungry team with big bucks on hand. Cousins could play flat and they bring in Penix earlier than anticipated.

plenty of variables out there.

I suppose anything cou...

Okay on a serious note, yes I agree it's premature to say that with any level of certainty. Given Cousin's age and the type of injury as you noted he had it's possible we see Penix sooner than later.

But, whether he starts in 26' or sooner, I do think he'll be a good QB in the NFL. He's in a position to succeed which is not the case for 1st round QB this cycle!

[Dr A W Niloc]

    Obviously, all six of these were drafted to start this year:

'24 Pos     Pro DV          2024                   24-23    Net 24-23
Pos Ord-ADP jct OA Lbs Tall 0628 Quarterbacks   Fr Opnts PE Chg Block

QB1  12--99 r16 26 210 6'4" Wash Jayden Daniels  1 16-13 25  +2 18-23
QB1  14-103 r16 22 215 6'1" Chic Caleb Williams 27  8--4 25 +18 10-32
QB1  28-200 r24 23 202 6'3" Minn J.J. McCarthy   8  5--3  8 +10  1-13
QB2  31-225 r24 24 213 6'3" Atla Michael Penix  25 15-14 29 -13 17--5
QB1  32-232 r16 29 230 6'4" N.E. Drake Maye     20 14-24 32 +14 23-27
QB1  33-234 r32 19 217 6'2" Denv Bo Nix         17 30-19 17 +10  9-30

Rookie Key:

Pos = Position. 
Pos-Ord = Fantasy Draft Order of this player at his position.
ADP = Overall Average Draft Position for this player.
Pro-jct = Projected NFL ranking in 2024.  (Ranking + 1) X 8
Fr   = Frequency of throws for this team in 2022.
Opnts = Strength of opposition in this position last year.
PE = Pass Efficiency:  Pass on Target % + Average Depth of Target.
Net-Chg = Difference in combined schedule and blocking since last year.
Block = Pass blocking for this team (for QBs, WRs, and TEs).

Jayden Daniels - The consensus is that in this bumper crop Daniels, Williams, and Maye are top tier prospects who would, in a normal year, be the best QB available.  ADPs are always crazy this early but Daniels is currently the only rookie QB who will be a Fantasy starter in 12 team leagues.  Jayden landed on the worst of the six offenses but this team led the league in throws so he won't lack for opportunities.  He's an improvement at the position and should win more than 4 games this year, but not many more.

Caleb Williams - Caleb's college numbers weren't great but he faced the toughest opposition and now has the best supporting cast of any #1 QB pick in history.  By far.  And his team did won 7 games last year.  All the lights are bright green except for coaching.  Da Bears should compete for a NFC wild card and, on paper, they should win it.  14th in a Fantasy draft may be a tad high but he's no worse than a mid-range QB2.

Minn J.J. McCarthy - It may be that neither McCarthy nor any of the rookies below will be drafted as Fantasy QB1s or QB2s but all should see the field sooner rather than later.  There is an expectation that McCarthy won't start Week #1 but throwing games with Sam Darnold defies logic.  The sooner J.J. can get his inevitable rookie mistakes out of the way the better.  The Vikes may need Chicago to falter but are strong wild card contenders if McCarthy can adjust to the work load.

Michael Penix Jr. - This kid is a crowd pleaser.  As with everyone else, I wanted/expected Penix to go to either Minnesota or Las Vegas.  My guess is there are grave concerns about Kirk Cousins's (Draft Order: 18th among QBs) health and/or durability.  Penix won't win starts on merit over Cousins but it wouldn't surprise me to see Michael as the "temporary" starter in September.  Whatever the Over/Under is on Kirk's starts for 2024 sign me up as an "Under".

Drake Maye - Drake Maye belongs in the elite three QBs but his situation is the exact opposite of Caleb's in Chicago.  New England is a run first "offense" with a ground-leaning schedule.  It is dead last in pass efficiency with the NFL's worst WRs.  The pass protection might be headed in the right direction this year but is not the shadow of its former self.
 
Bo Nix - Bo Nix is being overlooked as a dink-and-dunk game manager but he might be the best game manager in league history.  He gets rid of the ball fast and hits his [albeit close] target.  Denver doesn't have a lot of YAC WRs so defensive coordinators facing Nix won't be shaking in their booties.  Other teams can bore opponents and fans to death when their game plan doesn't work.  The Broncos will bore opponents and fans to death when their game plan does work.

      Given the other QBs on these teams I see no reason to hesitate to play the rookie.

[Ozzy]

51 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

    Obviously, all six of these were drafted to start this year:

'24 Pos     Pro DV          2024                   24-23    Net 24-23
Pos Ord-ADP jct OA Lbs Tall 0628 Quarterbacks   Fr Opnts PE Chg Block

QB1  12--99 r16 26 210 6'4" Wash Jayden Daniels  1 16-13 25  +2 18-23
QB1  14-103 r16 22 215 6'1" Chic Caleb Williams 27  8--4 25 +18 10-32
QB1  28-200 r24 23 202 6'3" Minn J.J. McCarthy   8  5--3  8 +10  1-13
QB2  31-225 r24 24 213 6'3" Atla Michael Penix  25 15-14 29 -13 17--5
QB1  32-232 r16 29 230 6'4" N.E. Drake Maye     20 14-24 32 +14 23-27
QB1  33-234 r32 19 217 6'2" Denv Bo Nix         17 30-19 17 +10  9-30

Rookie Key:

Pos = Position. 
Pos-Ord = Fantasy Draft Order of this player at his position.
ADP = Overall Average Draft Position for this player.
Pro-jct = Projected NFL ranking in 2024.  (Ranking + 1) X 8
Fr   = Frequency of throws for this team in 2022.
Opnts = Strength of opposition in this position last year.
PE = Pass Efficiency:  Pass on Target % + Average Depth of Target.
Net-Chg = Difference in combined schedule and blocking since last year.
Block = Pass blocking for this team (for QBs, WRs, and TEs).

Jayden Daniels - The consensus is that in this bumper crop Daniels, Williams, and Maye are top tier prospects who would, in a normal year, be the best QB available.  ADPs are always crazy this early but Daniels is currently the only rookie QB who will be a Fantasy starter in 12 team leagues.  Jayden landed on the worst of the six offenses but this team led the league in throws so he won't lack for opportunities.  He's an improvement at the position and should win more than 4 games this year, but not many more.

Caleb Williams - Caleb's college numbers weren't great but he faced the toughest opposition and now has the best supporting cast of any #1 QB pick in history.  By far.  And his team did won 7 games last year.  All the lights are bright green except for coaching.  Da Bears should compete for a NFC wild card and, on paper, they should win it.  14th in a Fantasy draft may be a tad high but he's no worse than a mid-range QB2.

Minn J.J. McCarthy - It may be that neither McCarthy nor any of the rookies below will be drafted as Fantasy QB1s or QB2s but all should see the field sooner rather than later.  There is an expectation that McCarthy won't start Week #1 but throwing games with Sam Darnold defies logic.  The sooner J.J. can get his inevitable rookie mistakes out of the way the better.  The Vikes may need Chicago to falter but are strong wild card contenders if McCarthy can adjust to the work load.

Michael Penix Jr. - This kid is a crowd pleaser.  As with everyone else, I wanted/expected Penix to go to either Minnesota or Las Vegas.  My guess is there are grave concerns about Kirk Cousins's (Draft Order: 18th among QBs) health and/or durability.  Penix won't win starts on merit over Cousins but it wouldn't surprise me to see Michael as the "temporary" starter in September.  Whatever the Over/Under is on Kirk's starts for 2024 sign me up as an "Under".

Drake Maye - Drake Maye belongs in the elite three QBs but his situation is the exact opposite of Caleb's in Chicago.  New England is a run first "offense" with a ground-leaning schedule.  It is dead last in pass efficiency with the NFL's worst WRs.  The pass protection might be headed in the right direction this year but is not the shadow of its former self.
 
Bo Nix - Bo Nix is being overlooked as a dink-and-dunk game manager but he might be the best game manager in league history.  He gets rid of the ball fast and hits his [albeit close] target.  Denver doesn't have a lot of YAC WRs so defensive coordinators facing Nix won't be shaking in their booties.  Other teams can bore opponents and fans to death when their game plan doesn't work.  The Broncos will bore opponents and fans to death when their game plan does work.

      Given the other QBs on these teams I see no reason to hesitate to play the rookie.

The Patriots are not headed in the right direction with pass pro, Chukwuma Okorafor at LT, not sure that works.  Pittsburgh will be way better off with the rookies they got and young players at OT than with Okorafor so not sure he is an upgrade, they drafted Caedan Wallace way to high as if he can be a LT when he was never that in college, Olu was the LT.  At center will Jake Andrews be better than David Andrews, I doubt it, maybe if one can play guard.  Strange is ok and Sow is ok but not sure either one are great.  Onwenu is the only really good OL they have currently.

I agree they have the worst WR core in the NFL.  They need Polk, Baker and Osborn to all be very good players.  They have options but not sure any WR really takes their game to another level.  Gibson will provide pass catching from the RB spot which will help and Jaheim Bell will surprise at TE/HB.  But yeah Maye has the worst supporting cast.

 

Nix and the Broncos, they have Sutton, Patrick and a burner in Mims so really they have solid weapons and good YAC guys.  Dulcich and Trautman are solid TEs and either one could have a breakout year potentially.  Estime could be a total steal and be a beast at RB but we will see.  They also added Franklin at WR who is a burner and can make big plays.

 

Caleb Williams does have a great supporting cast no question, especially at WR with the addition of Allen and drafting Rome who could be a superstar.  I would not say he did not have numbers in college, he put up big numbers against yeah very good competition.  Honestly last year that USC team sucked and did not have a ton of talent around him.  If anyone did not put up great numbers in college in was JJ McCarthy.  A QB where every single starter on the team last year offensively made it to the NFL and the ones that returned Loveland and Bredeson will be pro players in the future.  So he had a great cast unlike Williams, will be interesting how he does.  

Honestly Michigan won because of that culture, the weight training offseason program/coach, their identity in general and the leaders of that team being Blake Corum, Kris Jenkins, Zak Zinter, Mike Sainristill, Trevor Keegan and Michael Barrett.  All captains of the team, granted they probably would not have won without McCarthy but say a few things go wrong against Ohio State, they lose that game this year and do not make it to the Big Ten title or the playoff and clearly do not win the national title.  Is he the 10th pick overall then?  I doubt it.  So it will be really interesting how he does, because honestly the Michigan team did not lean on him as much as most highly drafted QBs.  Put McCarthy if any of those other situations, not sure how he would do and honestly not sure he is better than the guy that is there.  He is lucky to come to Minnesota with their HC, QB coach and GM.  It is a very supportive situation that will hopefully be able to give him some time to develop which I do feel he needs.  Also is a very QB friendly situation with Jefferson, Hockenson, Darrisaw at LT who is only 25 and a 22 year old Jordan Addison.  

 

[Dr A W Niloc]

21 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Is he the 10th pick overall then?  I doubt it.  So it will be really interesting how he does, because honestly the Michigan team did not lean on him as much as most highly drafted QBs.  Put McCarthy if any of those other situations, not sure how he would do and honestly not sure he is better than the guy that is there.  He is lucky to come to Minnesota with their HC, QB coach and GM.  It is a very supportive situation that will hopefully be able to give him some time to develop which I do feel he needs.  Also is a very QB friendly situation with Jefferson, Hockenson, Darrisaw at LT who is only 25 and a 22 year old Jordan Addison.

     Agreed.  At first blush, McCarthy's situation reads like a "no pressure" joke.  He comes from a running offense in college to an NFL team that was 28th in run frequency, 29th in RB usage.  He's a rookie replacing a QB having an excellent year who was 8th in targets, and the 2024 Run/Pass positional schedule mix (P-3 = third biggest shift to the passing game) suggests the team will be passing more, not less, this year.  Oh, and the Vikes Tight End oriented offense has a hobbled TE1.  Gee, no pressure here, right?

     It doesn't get that much better when we look at his (or Caleb's) numbers:

Quarterback     Adj. ADot BTTR TWPR Deep Scrn Drop P2SR AT2T
                Cmp%      Rate      Yrds Yrds Rate      Secs
                              
Michael Penix   74.5 10.7  7.3  2.0 1787  567  5.5  7.6 2.68
Bo Nix          85.5  6.8  4.1  1.0  999  749  7.0  7.6 2.44
Drake Maye      75.3 11.0  7.7  1.9 1452  316  8.2 19.5 2.79
Jayden Daniels  79.6 10.5  8.4  1.6 1347  277  6.7 20.2 2.91
Caleb Williams  77.5  9.2  6.2  3.6 1342  616  3.9 23.0 3.16
J.J. McCarthy   80.8  9.4  5.9  2.9  706  134  7.7 16.8 2.84

     It's only when we get to J.J.'s evaluations that something jumps out:

Quarterback     Pass Deep Mdim Prsr None
                Rtng Grad Grad Rtng Rtng

Michael Penix   90.5 93.5 90.9 65.3 92.2
Bo Nix          92.7 95.5 94.7 91.2 91.9
Drake Maye      89.8 97.1 83.8 61.3 91.7
Jayden Daniels  92.0 99.2 89.4 63.0 93.2
Caleb Williams  84.6 95.5 78.0 38.9 93.4
J.J. McCarthy   87.3 93.1 92.4 72.9 89.4

     When harassed, McCarthy has, by quite a bit, the highest QB grade [other than Bo Nix, who gets rid of the ball before any pressure].  Under pressure, he's a diamond.  Nothing fazes this guy.

     I'm sorry for all the charts but it's important to get an objective overview of the situation.  First, the QB-TE battery is key.  Viking TEs will face the league's third softest defenders--a welcome reprieve after the 6th toughest last year:

====  Ease of Schedule & Frequency of Passes, Runs & Targets  =====

2024  Ps-EofS  Ps-EofS  Ps-EofS  Ps-EofS | R/P || <--Frequencies-->
Team  QB-2023  RB-1923  WR-2023  TE-2023 | Mix || QB Rn-Ps-RB WR TE
                                         |     || 
Minn   3-[ 5]  26-[12]  10-[19]   3-[27] | P-3 ||  8 28-24-29 20  2
Chic   4-[ 8]  18-[25]   9-[ 5]  20-[10] | P-8 || 27  2-11--1 29 18
Wash  13-[16]  16-[19]  13-[21]  16-[28] | R19 ||  1 32-10-27  4 14
Denv  19-[30]  19-[10]  19-[30]  30-[29] | R17 || 17 17--1--7 30 31
Atla  14-[15]   7-[ 6]  20-[ 4]  15-[15] | R-7 || 25  4--6--1 32  3
N.E.  24-[14]   8-[24]  25-[11]  14-[11] | R-5 || 20 26--3-12 24 15

     The WRs, ranked 5th by PFF, have an easier schedule, too.  Not so much for the RBs, who aren't exactly chopped liver (13th) either.  The run blocking is soft (20th, but up from 27th last year) while the pass protection is top notch.  (Do Viking fans understand what a gift from the gods LT Christian Darrisaw was?  23rd, six picks after the full Alex Leatherwood?)

     Two factors that change every year and affect every play are blocking and Ease of Schedule.  For Minnesota, both of these have improved at every position going in to 2024.

P-3         DV          2024 Minnesota         24 23 PE Net 24 23
Pos PFF-PPG OA Lbs Tall Team Players        Fr Opnts RE Chg Block

QB1 r24--24 23 202 6'3" Minn J.J. McCarthy   8  3--5  8 +14  1-13
RB1 9th  29 23 208 5'9" Minn Aaron Jones    29 26-12 18 +21 20-27
RB2  19  52 23 204 5'11 Minn Ty Chandler    29 26-12 18 +21 20-27
WR1 5th 3rd 23 202 6'1" Minn Jstn Jefferson 20 10-19  8 +21  1-13
WR2  56  27 23 175 5'11 Minn Jordan Addison 20 10-19  8 +21  1-13
WR3  80 106 23 181 5'8" Minn Brandon Powell 20 10-19  8 +21  1-13
TE1 3rd 5th 23 243 6'5" Minn T.J. Hockenson  2  3-27  8 +36  1-13
TE2 9th  50 23 259 6'5" Minn Josh Oliver     2  3-27  8 +36  1-13

      Note that even if the Vikings don't find a WR3 and have to start without T.J. Hockenson they'll still have a top 10 rated TE (Josh Oliver).  No shortage of targets here!

      On paper, this is the 17th best team in the league, 10th best on offense.  Coaching isn't such an issue for Minny as it is for, say, Chicago.  I see no reason why the Vikes shouldn't compete for a NFC wild card with the Eagles (or Cowboys), Rams, and Bears.

     In Fantasy, take Jefferson and Addison at their Average Draft Positions, handcuff Hockenson with Oliver until T.J. is 100%, and consider McCarthy as a last round backup QB.  Do not let Aaron Jones fall too far;  18th is a respectable Run Efficiency ("RE", as opposed to Pass Efficiency, "PE") and Aaron might vulture a lot of TDs behind that improved O-Line.

[Ozzy]

9 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     Agreed.  At first blush, McCarthy's situation reads like a "no pressure" joke.  He comes from a running offense in college to an NFL team that was 28th in run frequency, 29th in RB usage.  He's a rookie replacing a QB having an excellent year who was 8th in targets, and the 2024 Run/Pass positional schedule mix (P-3 = third biggest shift to the passing game) suggests the team will be passing more, not less, this year.  Oh, and the Vikes Tight End oriented offense has a hobbled TE1.  Gee, no pressure here, right?

     It doesn't get that much better when we look at his (or Caleb's) numbers:

Quarterback     Adj. ADot BTTR TWPR Deep Scrn Drop P2SR AT2T
                Cmp%      Rate      Yrds Yrds Rate      Secs
                              
Michael Penix   74.5 10.7  7.3  2.0 1787  567  5.5  7.6 2.68
Bo Nix          85.5  6.8  4.1  1.0  999  749  7.0  7.6 2.44
Drake Maye      75.3 11.0  7.7  1.9 1452  316  8.2 19.5 2.79
Jayden Daniels  79.6 10.5  8.4  1.6 1347  277  6.7 20.2 2.91
Caleb Williams  77.5  9.2  6.2  3.6 1342  616  3.9 23.0 3.16
J.J. McCarthy   80.8  9.4  5.9  2.9  706  134  7.7 16.8 2.84

     It's only when we get to J.J.'s evaluations that something jumps out:

Quarterback     Pass Deep Mdim Prsr None
                Rtng Grad Grad Rtng Rtng

Michael Penix   90.5 93.5 90.9 65.3 92.2
Bo Nix          92.7 95.5 94.7 91.2 91.9
Drake Maye      89.8 97.1 83.8 61.3 91.7
Jayden Daniels  92.0 99.2 89.4 63.0 93.2
Caleb Williams  84.6 95.5 78.0 38.9 93.4
J.J. McCarthy   87.3 93.1 92.4 72.9 89.4

     When harassed, McCarthy has, by quite a bit, the highest QB grade [other than Bo Nix, who gets rid of the ball before any pressure].  Under pressure, he's a diamond.  Nothing fazes this guy.

     I'm sorry for all the charts but it's important to get an objective overview of the situation.  First, the QB-TE battery is key.  Viking TEs will face the league's third softest defenders--a welcome reprieve after the 6th toughest last year:

====  Ease of Schedule & Frequency of Passes, Runs & Targets  =====

2024  Ps-EofS  Ps-EofS  Ps-EofS  Ps-EofS | R/P || <--Frequencies-->
Team  QB-2023  RB-1923  WR-2023  TE-2023 | Mix || QB Rn-Ps-RB WR TE
                                         |     || 
Minn   3-[ 5]  26-[12]  10-[19]   3-[27] | P-3 ||  8 28-24-29 20  2
Chic   4-[ 8]  18-[25]   9-[ 5]  20-[10] | P-8 || 27  2-11--1 29 18
Wash  13-[16]  16-[19]  13-[21]  16-[28] | R19 ||  1 32-10-27  4 14
Denv  19-[30]  19-[10]  19-[30]  30-[29] | R17 || 17 17--1--7 30 31
Atla  14-[15]   7-[ 6]  20-[ 4]  15-[15] | R-7 || 25  4--6--1 32  3
N.E.  24-[14]   8-[24]  25-[11]  14-[11] | R-5 || 20 26--3-12 24 15

     The WRs, ranked 5th by PFF, have an easier schedule, too.  Not so much for the RBs, who aren't exactly chopped liver (13th) either.  The run blocking is soft (20th, but up from 27th last year) while the pass protection is top notch.  (Do Viking fans understand what a gift from the gods LT Christian Darrisaw was?  23rd, six picks after the full Alex Leatherwood?)

     Two factors that change every year and affect every play are blocking and Ease of Schedule.  For Minnesota, both of these have improved at every position going in to 2024.

P-3         DV          2024 Minnesota         24 23 PE Net 24 23
Pos PFF-PPG OA Lbs Tall Team Players        Fr Opnts RE Chg Block

QB1 r24--24 23 202 6'3" Minn J.J. McCarthy   8  3--5  8 +14  1-13
RB1 9th  29 23 208 5'9" Minn Aaron Jones    29 26-12 18 +21 20-27
RB2  19  52 23 204 5'11 Minn Ty Chandler    29 26-12 18 +21 20-27
WR1 5th 3rd 23 202 6'1" Minn Jstn Jefferson 20 10-19  8 +21  1-13
WR2  56  27 23 175 5'11 Minn Jordan Addison 20 10-19  8 +21  1-13
WR3  80 106 23 181 5'8" Minn Brandon Powell 20 10-19  8 +21  1-13
TE1 3rd 5th 23 243 6'5" Minn T.J. Hockenson  2  3-27  8 +36  1-13
TE2 9th  50 23 259 6'5" Minn Josh Oliver     2  3-27  8 +36  1-13

      Note that even if the Vikings don't find a WR3 and have to start without T.J. Hockenson they'll still have a top 10 rated TE (Josh Oliver).  No shortage of targets here!

      On paper, this is the 17th best team in the league, 10th best on offense.  Coaching isn't such an issue for Minny as it is for, say, Chicago.  I see no reason why the Vikes shouldn't compete for a NFC wild card with the Eagles (or Cowboys), Rams, and Bears.

     In Fantasy, take Jefferson and Addison at their Average Draft Positions, handcuff Hockenson with Oliver until T.J. is 100%, and consider McCarthy as a last round backup QB.  Do not let Aaron Jones fall too far;  18th is a respectable Run Efficiency ("RE", as opposed to Pass Efficiency, "PE") and Aaron might vulture a lot of TDs behind that improved O-Line.

Penix for example threw the ball in two years over 450 times more than JJ McCarthy did.  Basically that is more passing attempts than JJ has ever had in his career in any one season and he has never threw for even 350+ passes in a season.

 

So small sample size makes whatever percentage you are throwing out there pretty meaningless to some degree because the sample size for each player is not the same.  That is the big question with McCarthy, would a higher sample size mean he is better as a player or worse.  Of course JJ McCarthy in a phone booth isolated situation might have better percentages because he was asked to do it far less than the rest.  Even Caleb Williams over the last two years threw the ball over 230 times more than JJ and that was with 3 less games played.

 

Sure at times McCarthy is good under pressure but again smaller sample size could distort those numbers.  It is great he can play under center which Minnesota values and he is a good play action passer and can get out of trouble with his legs as well.  He has a lot of attributes but honestly was never really put under fire as a player and not sure he was the clear leader of that team with so many others that obviously were.  Still young at 21 so that is also good.

 

Compared to the other top flight QBs in last years draft, he played with by far the best defense, the best 1-5 OL at every position, the best RB core and probably the best TE core as well.  So he had a lot of help.   Time will tell how much of it was that programs system/weight training staff/surrounding talent and how much of it was him.

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Penix for example threw the ball in two years over 450 times more than JJ McCarthy did.eight training staff/surrounding talent and how much of it was him.

      Exactly.  McCarthy's workload will skyrocket.  And let's not forget that Michigan played against opponents who were, on average, 51 rungs below them.  J.J. will have to overcome much better opposition and will be the focus;  Minnesota is an infinitely more QB-centric team than Michigan.  

      True, the data is sparse, as it always is in a sport that plays one game a week.  As John Stewart stated:  "We live in available light."  McCarthy has shown composure--even humor--in games, practice, and off the field.  Normally, we'd be concerned that a rookie would find this situation overwhelming.  Based on what we know, no one seems worried that J.J. will crack under the pressure. 

     The question that I've encountered is whether or not he can push the ball downfield, past the yardsticks, on a consistent basis.  Above all, we shouldn't repeat the mistake we made with C.J. Stroud last year:  The fact that a QB doesn't do something [in college] doesn't mean he can't  do it [in the NFL].  For what it's worth, recent reports suggest that McCarthy's arm is doing fine.

[vike daddy]

7 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      Exactly.  McCarthy's workload will skyrocket. 

thank you as always for expressing your thoughts in our forum, it's always welcomed.

 

this thread though is about the other five 1st round 2024 qb's, not McCarthy as we have a solo thread for him.

 

Edited July 7 by vike daddy

[Ozzy]

55 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      Exactly.  McCarthy's workload will skyrocket.  And let's not forget that Michigan played against opponents who were, on average, 51 rungs below them.  J.J. will have to overcome much better opposition and will be the focus;  Minnesota is an infinitely more QB-centric team than Michigan.  

      True, the data is sparse, as it always is in a sport that plays one game a week.  As John Stewart stated:  "We live in available light."  McCarthy has shown composure--even humor--in games, practice, and off the field.  Normally, we'd be concerned that a rookie would find this situation overwhelming.  Based on what we know, no one seems worried that J.J. will crack under the pressure. 

     The question that I've encountered is whether or not he can push the ball downfield, past the yardsticks, on a consistent basis.  Above all, we shouldn't repeat the mistake we made with C.J. Stroud last year:  The fact that a QB doesn't do something [in college] doesn't mean he can't  do it [in the NFL].  For what it's worth, recent reports suggest that McCarthy's arm is doing fine.

Exactly, it has nothing to do with cracking under pressure, it is more about does he have the elite arm talent to succeed in the NFL and make NFL throws on a consistent basis.    A QB needs to be able to throw the football extremely well to be a high level QB, not just some average guy.  The top 5 QBs in the league all do that and win at a very high level because of it, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson etc.  Also McCarthy is not lucky enough to be a Brock Purdy on a team that has arguably the best LT in the NFL, the best RB in the NFL, best WR core in the NFL especially in terms of YAC, the best blocking HB in the NFL, also have one of the top 2 TEs in the NFL and a top defense in the NFL that has arguably the best DE in the NFL, and best LB in the NFL...

 

McCarthy did not win with his arm in college against like you said obviously less talented competition than he will face in the NFL.  So will he be able to do that, he showed it at times making key throws in big games but honestly that was only a few times in his entire career, many great QBs do 5 clutch game winning throws in one game.  

 

What did CJ Stroud not do in college that he did in the NFL?  He was ridiculous in college and his arm talent was not questioned, especially after that show he put on throwing at the NFL combine.  His touch was unquestioned along with his accuracy.  Only issue was his overall confidence and fundamentals in the pocket which clearly he has.  McCarthy to me did not put on a show at the combine throwing what so ever against, which was against air and no pass rush.

 

McCarthy is the only one of the six that is a win now mode, sure Caleb Williams maybe but not sure the Bears are that desperate for a winner because they were solid even last year.  Penix has the ideal situation, good young receivers on the roster and no real pressure to preform right now and he can really sit and learn.  Not sure McCarthy is in that boat unless Darnold is as good as some around the 49ers say he is.  

 

Arm talent for those QBs goes like this.  Sure a lot of that has to deal with throwing on the move which helps Caleb Williams a lot, pure accuracy Penix has that, upside and great pocket fundamentals I feel Maye has that.  Daniels is raw but throws a good ball, however a lot of that is helped with his great threat to run the football, and Bo Nix can spread it around so well and throws with great pace and anticipation.  McCarthy is the least experienced out of all of those passers, the one that has the most to prove and the most inexperienced in terms of true passing game reps.  

 

Caleb Williams
Michael Penix
Drake Maye
Jayden Daniels
Bo Nix 
JJ McCarthy

 

And I say again sure is easy to say now, but say he and Michigan lost to Ohio State in the final seconds.  Would one even be having this conversation about JJ McCarthy and his ability as an elite level QB?  Most likely he would have either fell into the 2nd round or he would have never declared to start with, which honestly start of last year I was on the fence if he would declare and only way I thought he would if is they won the National Title...

[SteelKing728]

I wonder how Caleb Williams would do with Chicago's offense from 2023.

It looks much better on paper, but last year it was rough. That's partially due to Fields and their former OC, but the talent around them did The Bears no favors.

(I'm attempting to get the thread back on topic)

[Ozzy]

12 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

I wonder how Caleb Williams would do with Chicago's offense from 2023.

It looks much better on paper, but last year it was rough. That's partially due to Fields and their former OC, but the talent around them did The Bears no favors.

(I'm attempting to get the thread back on topic)

The Bears offense last year was not that bad with Moore and Kmet.  Sure RB arguably is better this up coming year with Swift but they did have Foreman and still have Herbert this year and the standout rookie Johnson who returns as well who was there last year.  Also they had Mooney last year who is not bad but clearly with Allen and Odunze WR is the biggest upgrade.  

 

Real thing will be is Shelton at center better than Whitehair and Patrick the interior guys from last year, both are gone now.  Also can Nate Davis stay healthy or not.

 

It is a similar offense I feel just Caleb Williams is better at creating on the run passing plays downfield than Fields who more likely just took off and ran, had well over 1000 yards rushing two years ago for them and almost 700 last year.  That is the big different, doubt Caleb Williams will take off and run that much outside of just general scrambling, no way he gets 1000+ yards rushing on a season.  

 

As for staying on topic, this is a internet message board that what 5-10 people actually post consistently on.  One should be glad there is any interaction or posting as compared to saying stay on topic this stay on topic that.  The five other rookie QBs are being "watched" because there will be a direct comparison between them and JJ McCarthy basically there entire career, so yeah McCarthy will come up in the comparison.  

[vike daddy]

17 hours ago, Ozzy said:

As for staying on topic, this is a internet message board that what 5-10 people actually post consistently on.  One should be glad there is any interaction or posting as compared to saying stay on topic this stay on topic that. 

i don't agree, and i'd wager many others don't either.

no one's opinions are being suppressed (and i recognize you're not claiming anyone saying they have), we're just asking they be discussed in the appropriate places. which is how it's always been done here and no one has requested a more free-form, chaotic style. it's not like we have one thread titled VIKINGS and anything goes.

 

it's obvious where to talk about McCarthy, or where to talk about the offensive line, or where to talk about rookie draft classes, or future draft classes, or specific players as they develop, or veterans once they've retired or moved to other teams. 

there's absolutely nothing wrong with keeping various conversations organized, in fact it's a benefit. it's just a matter of self discipline, and the respect for others to do so.

 

as to your statement that only 5-10 members post here regularly... while that may be true, for every member that posts there are 5-10 members and guests that just read here. and maybe they only do so once a week. so we owe it to them to have conversations topic specific so they know where to look for updates.

and during draft weeks, the ratio of members to guests is more like 1:20.

Edited July 8 by vike daddy

[vike daddy]

Though the Patriots drafted Drake Maye at No. 3 overall a couple of months ago, head coach Jerod Mayo made it clear during the offseason program that veteran Jacoby Brissett was the team’s starting quarterback at that point. As New England begins training camp, that has remained the same.

Mayo: “Coming out of the spring, I don’t think there’s any doubt — Jacoby is the starting quarterback at this point in time. We can look at these other quarterbacks on the roster, at the same time it’s about competition. So, when we get out on the field this summer with the pads on, we’ll see how it all plays out. But coming out of the spring, I think it’s clear that Jacoby is the most pro-ready guy we have. He’s played a lot of football.”

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/jerod-mayo-i-dont-think-theres-any-doubt-jacoby-brissett-is-our-starter-at-this-point