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Positional Analysis: WR

WindyCity

By WindyCity
in Chicago Bears

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G08

G08

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I don't know if anyone has access to a stat like this, but I would LOVE to see how many yards downfield Landry is on average when he is targeted or catches a pass. I'd bet dollars to donuts that's why his catch % is so high. His RAC is going to be dog**** when he can't break tackles or get out in space.

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G08

G08

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Again, his career YPC is 10.1.

Last season, that would put him 91st (quick scan on espn.com)

 

Top NFL WRs career avg:

A.Brown - 13.5

OBJ - 14.1

Hopkins - 14.2

Jones - 15.5

Fitzgerald - 12.6 (13.4 through the age of 30)

D.Thomas - 13.8

Green - 14.8

Bryant 14.0

 

You get the idea, so I'm going to stop digging for this info. Landry should not get paid like a stud #1 WR.

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WindyCity

WindyCity

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A more fair comparison would be to look at what Wilson would have done based on career number [didn't count rookie season] and with 161 targets based on his career number he would have had,

101, 1186, 6 TDs

Landry if you use his career numbers, and not just statistically worse season he would be

114, 1151, 6.5 TDs

 

They are very close and Wilson is in a better offensive situation and has no where near the volume or attention to deal with. His 60 yard catch has a much larger impact than anything Landry could add to his total.

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WindyCity

WindyCity

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I don't know if anyone has access to a stat like this, but I would LOVE to see how many yards downfield Landry is on average when he is targeted or catches a pass. I'd bet dollars to donuts that's why his catch % is so high. His RAC is going to be dog**** when he can't break tackles or get out in space.

2017: 3.5 average distance

2016: 5.5 average distance

Based on 2017 his RAC is low, 4.5, which puts him above Kendall Wright, but lower than most WRs.

Based on 2016 he would be at 6.7, which would put him in the very top of the league with Tyreek Hill and Golden Tate who have more outside splash plays.

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WindyCity

WindyCity

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Paying Landry 13-14 million dollars is not paying him #1 money. #1 money is between 16-17 million/season. I am aware that it would currently put him in the top 6-7 WRs, but the recent contracts signed Hopkins [16.2] and Brown [17] have restablished the market at that point. The 14 million dollar deals [Julio, Dez, AJ Green] were signed over 2 years ago.

Paying him 13-14 million a season puts him in the Alshon Jeffery and Devante Adams territory. On a per target basis over the last 4 years he has produced at their level or above. I can dig up the numbers but he is totally reasonable to ask for 14 million based on what he has done compared to those 2 guys.

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G08

G08

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Unless Nagy is pounding the table for this dude, I do not want for what I think his cost is going to be. Noooooooo freaking way.

 

The thing with Wilson though, @WindyCity, is that he had his most success UNDER Nagy's play-calling. That's huge for us, plus he's not going to cost an arm and a leg. He can play in the slot and we can put him outside and send him deep. It's a smart, "cheap" move and it gives us the ability to play a rookie over him if the rookie shows out. With Landry, you are stuck putting him on the field.

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WindyCity

WindyCity

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Based on the last 4 years of catch % and yards per catch this would be the yards produced by each player per 100 targets‬

‪Alshon Jeffery: 790‬
‪Davante Adams 688‬
‪Jarvis Landry: 713‬

‪Jeffery (13/season) Adams (14/season)‬

‪I not sure Landry at 14/season is “overpaid”‬

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WindyCity

WindyCity

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I really like Albert Wilson and I think he would be a great addition.

But I have no idea what he is going to do when he is one of the top 2 options on the offense and when he is attracting more attention from defenses and better guys in coverage. I have no idea if he can beat a double team or whether he can even draw a double team which open up others.

There is less unknown to me with Landry. I know that on a dysfunctional offense he can still produce. I know that even when he is the #1 target and he is getting double teamed he can still produce even if it is inefficient,  I know that defensive coordinators respect him enough to double team him on important downs and in the redzone, which can open up a Shaheen or Meredith.

 

I hope/think Wilson can do those things, but I do not know it.

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G08

G08

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18 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Based on the last 4 years of catch % and yards per catch this would be the yards produced by each player per 100 targets‬

‪Alshon Jeffery: 790‬
‪Davante Adams 688‬
‪Jarvis Landry: 713‬

‪Jeffery (13/season) Adams (14/season)‬

‪I not sure Landry at 14/season is “overpaid”‬

I bet his catch % is great when he's barely running 5 yards past the LOS and catching the ball. That's nonsense.

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AZBearsFan

AZBearsFan

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1 hour ago, G08 said:

I bet his catch % is great when he's barely running 5 yards past the LOS and catching the ball. That's nonsense.

I said it before - his being super high in RAC and catch % is reflective of him running most routes at or near the LOS like RBs do. 

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

But I have no idea what he is going to do when he is one of the top 2 options on the offense and when he is attracting more attention from defenses and better guys in coverage. I have no idea if he can beat a double team or whether he can even draw a double team which open up others.

If you’re bringing in Wilson with an expectation (not hope) that long term he’s going to be more than what he has been then you’re putting that risk upon yourself. We know what he is in the role he’s filled in KC and he’s fine in it. But, he’s half the cost of Landry so you can bring on a vet who can fill the bigger role short term and draft the eventual long term guy. 

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

There is less unknown to me with Landry. I know that on a dysfunctional offense he can still produce.

There is also the possibility that Miami’s offense was dysfunctional in no small part because of their overreliance upon an inefficient producer in Landry. Only time will tell for sure, but that’s very much a risk in play on Landry. 

None of this is a sure thing. If it was then the right guys would get a bazillion dollars and the wrong guys would get small deals or go unsigned. It’s all about managing risk - take the inefficient volume producer with a higher floor but also a low ceiling at a top ten WR price, or take the role player with more ceiling but also more outright miss potential at half the cost plus other pieces? Pick your poison. Pace has shown to be more of a volume addresser to this point in FA which would suggest Wilson+ over Landry, but history is only that and not always predictive. 

We are SO underplaying the role Cohen plays in all of this IMO. If they envision him working out of the slot a lot then Landry makes a lot less sense IMO since he doesn’t really play outside at all. 

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