Positional Analysis: WR

[Superman(DH23)]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Landry is not a perfect signing by any stretch of the imagination.

But he is the best possible player at a position of extreme need who happens to have the 2 traits the Bears are lacking at WR which is durability and consistency.

This could go sideways, but you are wasting money. The Bears just got done flushing 45 million in one offseason, you can easily recover from money mistakes.

 

The Bears tried to trade for Landry last season twice from what I have been told. After the Meredith injury and it was pretty well reported that they called at the trade deadline. I am not sure there interest would lessen now that there is no draft pick cost and they still have a desperate need at the position.

You keep talking about the wasted money but they all were essentially 1 year deals.  The Bears arent going to be hampered by those deals going forward, and they had to spend The money to get to the floor.  They tried to go big and failed so they had to go to plan b.  Look if the Bears can build an out after 1 or 2 years im willing to talk.  But Landry isnt going for that.  He wants big money with big guarantees.  The Bears should NOT be making long term investments in replaceable #s.  And thats what Landry is.  Hes not a double digit td 1200 yards wr.  Hes just not, but thats how he wants to be paid.

[AZBearsFan]

7 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I am just surprised that people are so willing to do that again with a position that has a huge impact on Trubisky's development.

My willingness stems largely from the fact that the supposed top end talent in FA isn’t really a top end talent IMO. This is of course assuming Robinson doesn’t make it to FA. I’m more willing to add shorter term vets than most are to speed along Trubisky while also not rushing rookies or overextending guys who really need to be complementary players. Mitch’s development is obviously top priority but it shouldn’t be at the detriment of a reasonable development period for other guys either. Not getting the absolute “top FA” is not necessarily limiting to anyone’s development. Look at what LA and Philly did. 

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Cohen is (almost) never going to line up outside and run a go/9 unless it's a trick play.  He will run routes from slot, motion or backfield.  He will wheel into a go.   Cohen is an underrated receiver though.  His hands really impressed me last year.  People think he is a gimmick player.  He is not.  He is just small.  Not a bell cow back, but guy should be on the field a lot and I would have no problem lining him up in slot often. 

I really think it’s entirely possible that they have Cohen earmarked for that slot role filled by Wilson and Landry for their prospective teams. He’s QUICK, has really good hands, showed to be a better route runner last year than probably anyone thought he would be, and clearly demonstrates the ability to produce RAC. The only issue is his height, but otherwise his skill set is really ideal for Nagy’s use of the position. He handled 140 touches on offense and 55 more as a returner last year without any injury issues. From a durability standpoint he can handle slot WR reps for sure, and IMO it maximizes his use as a versatile playmaker without having to take Howard off the field. He can run jet sweeps from there or motion into the backfield. If the goal is to get our best playmakers on the field as often as possible then this has to be in serious consideration. That he could be an 80-90 target guy in the slot who gets the occasional carry or reps as the RB really opens up the possibilities for us in FA far more than we may be considering.

If they do this then the need for a legit 2nd RB becomes suddenly very real. Frankly I think we need one anyway, but if TC is were to be getting a bunch more WR reps then we need a more capable player than Cunningham added in the backfield able to spell Howard more than just on passing downs. 

[WindyCity]

2 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

You keep talking about the wasted money but they all were essentially 1 year deals.  The Bears arent going to be hampered by those deals going forward, and they had to spend The money to get to the floor.  They tried to go big and failed so they had to go to plan b.  Look if the Bears can build an out after 1 or 2 years im willing to talk.  But Landry isnt going for that.  He wants big money with big guarantees.  The Bears should NOT be making long term investments in replaceable #s.  And thats what Landry is.  Hes not a double digit td 1200 yards wr.  Hes just not, but thats how he wants to be paid.

Every deal is really for 2 years, unless we are talking about 50+ million guaranteed.

45 million wasted is still 45 million wasted it could have been rolled into this season or some of those guys could have proven worthy of not being cut.

There is no way a Landry contract will have a negative long term effect on the Bears cap. We have insane amounts of money coming.

The Bears have 135 million in cap space next season. We can pay a WR 25 million a season and not actually have cap issues. Add in that our QB is cheap for 4 more years and now is the time to spend.

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

I really think it’s entirely possible that they have Cohen earmarked for that slot role filled by Wilson and Landry for their prospective teams. He’s QUICK, has really good hands, showed to be a better route runner last year than probably anyone thought he would be, and clearly demonstrates the ability to produce RAC. The only issue is his height, but otherwise his skill set is really ideal for Nagy’s use of the position. He handled 140 touches on offense and 55 more as a returner last year without any injury issues. From a durability standpoint he can handle slot WR reps for sure, and IMO it maximizes his use as a versatile playmaker without having to take Howard off the field. He can run jet sweeps from there or motion into the backfield. If the goal is to get our best playmakers on the field as often as possible then this has to be in serious consideration. That he could be an 80-90 target guy in the slot who gets the occasional carry or reps as the RB really opens up the possibilities for us in FA far more than we may be considering.

If they do this then the need for a legit 2nd RB becomes suddenly very real. Frankly I think we need one anyway, but if TC is were to be getting a bunch more WR reps then we need a more capable player than Cunningham added in the backfield able to spell Howard more than just on passing downs. 

Who handles the 100 passes thrown to the RBs?

Cohen is already going to have a huge role in addition to a slot WR, whoever it is.

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

My willingness stems largely from the fact that the supposed top end talent in FA isn’t really a top end talent IMO. This is of course assuming Robinson doesn’t make it to FA. I’m more willing to add shorter term vets than most are to speed along Trubisky while also not rushing rookies or overextending guys who really need to be complementary players. Mitch’s development is obviously top priority but it shouldn’t be at the detriment of a reasonable development period for other guys either. Not getting the absolute “top FA” is not necessarily limiting to anyone’s development. Look at what LA and Philly did. 

Philly essentially dropped 18 million, 4th and 5th round picks on the WR position this season. This was when they already had a 1st round pick and a top 3 TE on the team.

LA Invested 12 million, 2x2nd round picks and a 3rd and 4th round picks on the position.

 

The top end talent isn’t as good as we think, that is true. The 2nd tier talent is often just plain bad or injury prone, as evidence by most of the Bears recent signings.

You assume shorter term vets are going to assist Trubisky when there is a chance they harm him. Signing another Markus Wheaton will actively hurt his development. A lot of guys like Richardson, Moncrief, even Lee profile a lot like Wheaton.

I would like to see them add guys that enhance what he does 

[WindyCity]

I think we need to land one of Robinson, Watkins, Landry, Wilson or Sanders.

If we don’t I think we need to go WR early in the draft regardless of how the board breaks. 39 would almost have to be someone who could reasonably start in 2018.

If we roll with a Lee, Moncrief and no significant draft asset I think we are asking for more trouble.

If we land one of the top 5 guys and we add another solid veteran I think WR becomes a draft need, but one where you can wait till the 4th round if you want to.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Who handles the 100 passes thrown to the RBs?

Cohen is already going to have a huge role in addition to a slot WR, whoever it is.

Howard is gonna get 40-50 of them just by being the RB on the field 75% of the time. The other 50-60 or so would be the aforementioned 2nd RB, Cunningham or whoever his replacement is, and probably some Cohen from there. 

What do you think is easier to find to contribute right away in this upcoming FA market: a top 3 WR who isn’t grossly overpriced, or a capable backup RB with decent hands who won’t kill you in pass pro? I’d argue for the latter, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. 

Nagy needs to maximize what he has already as well as supplement it. His best offensive players last year were Howard and Cohen. One has the ability, it would seem, to play another position in the new scheme where he probably can use his greatest strengths (short area quickness and burst) more frequently and in more space than he can at RB. This isn’t exactly rocket science, especially when we are talking about every reasonably likely to be available FA option at WR being a flawed add with various risks. Cohen as predominantly a slot WR instead of reserve RB isn’t any more risky than any of them, and he’s already on the roster, is making 10% or less than what any of the FA options will make, and has just as much of not more upside in the role with a comparable bust factor. He played there some last year so he’s not exactly a total mystery or shot in the dark there.

So say you go that route - say you come into FA with the expectation that come Labor Day Meredith and Cohen are your 2 and 3, maybe with Cunningham already back in the mix. Now you can give $4-5M to a guy like maybe Dion Lewis. He’s a GREAT fit scheme wise. He’s young. He is a good runner and excellent receiver who can also flex out, and he has less bust factor than most of the WR we’re talking about. Or if you wanna spend less maybe Rex Burkhead. Or Doug Martin after he’s cut. There are plenty of guys who can capably play backup RB and catch 25-passes or so.

You’re still adding the same amount of guys, but you’re inserting more of a known with the backup RB and getting Cohen on the field more making peanuts with as much or more potential as any FA slot WR in this scheme. It’s better risk management IMO. Add Wilson or Richardson or Moncrief or whoever to that, a 2nd wave 1-year vet who’s a skill set fit (could be Wright or Inman too) and a mid-round pick to eventually replace his role. Now you’ve supplemented your playmakers with both knowns and upside guys. 

RB Howard, Lewis 4/20, Cunningham

WR Meredith, Moncrief 3/18, Cohen, Maclin 1/3, Michael Gallup (?), White

Is it better than other options? I dunno, but it’s as viable as any other IMO. We’re putting some level of faith in Meredith in any scenario, but RB is totally set even with Cohen being moved to WR. We have 3 WR who have produced in the NFL in Meredith, Moncrief & Maclin with the former two still having quite a bit of upside. Maclin is a higher floor #2 from whom not much will be expected who has very little Markus Wheaton potential. Cohen is a capable slot player from what we saw last year who might be really good there with a HC that understands how to use him, and even if that was all a mirage Meredith can slide inside and Maclin can play outside. We have a high upside rookie WR who doesn’t HAVE to contribute day 1 but for whom there is room if he’s ready to do so. It also allows room for Kevin White to get action if he pulls a Kyle Fuller in 2018, but also doesn’t need anything from him for the plan to succeed. We don’t need all of those guys to hit to set Mitch up for success short and long term - just a reasonable hit rate which can be far more expected with an offensive playcaller who isn’t a complete boob. And in addition to all of that we have a high upside mismatch TE in Shaheen. This is also a plan that leaves us with as much money as we need to pursue whatever we want to do in FA on defense or on the OL and doesn’t tie us to any one position in round 1 in the draft. You could have Fuller on the tag and still have the funds to extend Goldman and make multiple other meaningful multi-year additions. 

[WindyCity]

From SI

 

 

AND TWO PLAYERS IN THE ‘MAYBE BUT UNLIKELY’ CATEGORY...
Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville is relatively tight on cap space (Over the Cap estimates about $20 million this offseason) but could almost double that number if they decide to part ways with quarterback Blake ;Bortles. In this scenario, is there enough of a cash flow to woo a top-tier quarterback on the open market and allow Robinson to count roughly $16 million against the books? Probably not. That being said, Robinson is certainly a point of pride. A 2015 Pro Bowler, he shined brightly for Jacksonville before the arrival of Leonard Fournette and the team’s formidable offensive line. As ESPN Jaguars beat man Mike DiRocco noted, a one-year deal for Robinson, who tore his ACL in September, would almost certainly come in below the tag number anyway.

[WindyCity]

Meredith

Moncrief

Cohen

Gallup

Maclin

White

 

That is a terrifyingly injured (Meredith, Moncrief and White) group and outside of rookie and a guy switching positions doesn’t have a lot of upside.

This is a big year for Trubisky, it is a chance for Nagy to come out of the gate strong, I can’t see them relying on that group of WRs for the 2 most important people in the franchise. They need to do better.

Why not invest the cap room in the weakest position on the team? This is the position where you shouldn’t be looking to save money.

[WindyCity]

The above plan with Gallup does allow you to go different directions in round 1, but pretty much forces your hand in round 2. Can you imagine that group if the only young upside you had was a 4th round pick and Cohen?

This is the moment where the Bears should not cheap out or look for reasonable bargains at WR. This is a critical year for Trubisky, let’s not ask him to take a big step will throwing to substandard weapons. It doesn’t need to be Landry, but let’s get him some reliable targets. This is the moment to spend, when you have cap room and Trubisky makes nothing, to make sure he is not throwing to backups and the corpse of Jeremy Maclin.

[WindyCity]

We also don’t really know what we have in Shaheen.

He caught 12 passes last season, at times he looked like a baby giraffe running around or be jammed out of existence,  and spent most of the time on the bench.

I think he has talent, but we are taking some strong leaps from 12 catches to a major offensive contributor.

[G08]

Durkin on Wilson:

Summary: Wilson’s familiarity with Matt Nagy’s scheme makes him an ideal free agent target for a wide receiver group in need of a talent infusion. After going undrafted out of Georgia Southern, Wilson has steadily earned more reps and became a legitimate target and chain mover by the end of 2017. Earlier in his career, he was prone to making some business decisions on the field. That changed last season, when he actively worked over the middle of the field, fought for extra yardage and was a physical blocker in the run game. While he was typically lined up in the slot, he was effective outside as well. His alignment flexibility combined with his speed makes him an ideal fit to help the new offense in an expanded role.

[AZBearsFan]

1 minute ago, WindyCity said:

The above plan with Gallup does allow you to go different directions in round 1, but pretty much forces your hand in round 2.

This is the moment where the Bears should not cheap out or look for reasonable bargains at WR. This is a critical year for Trubisky, let’s not ask him to take a big step will throwing to substandard weapons. It doesn’t need to be Landry, but let’s get him some reliable targets. This is the moment to spend, when you have cap room and Trubisky makes nothing, to make sure he is not throwing to backups and the corpse of Jeremy Maclin.

Maclin is an example. Pick a different vet. Any of a dozen. It’s a one year bridge body who’s basically an insurance policy against injury or bad play. What other real options do we have other than to take a bunch of swings at less than perfect guys in hopes that something clicks? There are no lock FA successes this year at the position nor are there any blue chip prospects at the top of the draft. My plan not paying **** tons of money to WR adds is not about the cost. That my proposal doesn’t cost a ton is a perk, but not part of the plan. On whom can you spend a lot this offseason at WR where we aren’t buying a flawed player? Landry has been discussed to death. Watkins and Robinson aren’t hitting FA (my plan assumes that) and even if they did Watkins has underachieved somewhat to his physical talent and draft status his whole career and Robinson is coming off an ACL. Richardson health and questionable production. Wilson limited prior role surrounded by great players. Jordan Matthews questionable hands & fit. Moncrief health and production. John Brown health and recent production. Everyone has something. 

Who the hell are these reliable targets available to us to add for Mitch of whom you speak? Where are they? The real life NFL doesn’t have create-a-player mode. Overpaying for flawed talent just because you have the means is stupid. No matter who we add for Mitch there is going to be risk associated with it. All we can do is add talented guys and hope it works out. There are a bunch of talented guys with risk and none without. I’m not going to delude myself into thinking otherwise and I’m not going to push to overpay one equally flawed FA over another just because I have the cap space. It’s not about the money. It’s about the right guy. If there’s a guy they are sold on then pay for that guy. If they’re on a pretty level plane then don’t spend $9M when you can get the equal for $5M. It’s not about being cheap on the position. It’s about not spending because the cash is burning a whole in your pocket. 

You can’t go into FA worried that every FA we add is going to be Markus Wheaton. 

24 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

 

We also don’t really know what we have in Shaheen.

He caught 12 passes last season, at times he looked like a baby giraffe running around or be jammed out of existence,  and spent most of the time on the bench.

I think he has talent, but we are taking some strong leaps from 12 catches to a major offensive contributor.

 

At some point you have to trust that the coach you hired to help these guys grow can do just that and to let these guys actually develop. Trubisky needed and needs reps to develop. Same can be said for Shaheen. At some point you have to just play them and let them become what they will. Have an insurance plan for Shaheen for sure but you have to see if he can be the guy because you drafted him to be the guy. 

[WindyCity]

We clearly disagree with how talented Landry is. He is much better than the flawed players you mention. His flaws have not kept him from being a consistently productive player.

There are flaws and issues with price tag with Landry he is not perfect, but if you want perfect you are never signing someone in free agency those guys don’t hit the market.

There are flaws that effect on Field availability and performance. To me those are too big a risk for the 2018 season.