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Positional Analysis: WR


WindyCity

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1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Under this premise we are going to be paying him enough to take him away from Jax.

What I would like to do is sign him for 1 year 14 million with a 4 year 56 million dollar option.

If he plays 15 games or has 1000 yards the option automatically gets picked up.

He's going to sign a 5 year deal that ostensibly looks like a high aav but there will likely be some sort of out after 2 years.  Maybe a player option.

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What to like about Trey Burton is that despite having a low volume at assess, the numbers you do have are really nice,

23 catches on 31 targets gives you a stellar 74.5% catch percentage.
 
1 drop in 31 targets is a very solid drop percentage [not an insane 1/111 from Ertz]

5 TDs on 31 targets is an off the charts TD percentage, but that is the one stat that the low volume throws out of wack. But what that does show is a very good red zone usage and percentage for  a part time player.

He made 1 start against the Rams and went 5-71-2 TDs, 14.2 yard average and TD grabs of 20 and 11.

14/23 catches went for 1st downs for a very respectable 61% 1st down precentage.


So while you have a limited sample size, what you do have is pretty nice for a ascending player.

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Apprently Charles London was the recruiting coordinator for Penn State when Robinson came in and Robinson and Amos are very close

 

 
 
The story does not make clear which players almost departed, but Robinson had a tight bond with others in his recruiting class: TE Kyle Carter, DB Adrian Amos, RB Bill Belton, DE Deion Barnes and OT Donovan Smith. Each of those players left an imprint on Penn State’s 2012 season.

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On 2/17/2018 at 12:00 AM, WindyCity said:

It would help if he healed slowly.

But if they release Bortles what are they going to find that is cheaper? Bad QBs get paid 15/season, we know that personally.

They are too low to draft someone.

I think they have to keep him regardless.

They can clear $10,750,000 in space with no dead cap by cutting Hurns and Marcedes Lewis. 

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I am trying to determine whether the Dolphins can tag Jarvis Landry,

Starting Cap: 8.2 million

Cuts

Obvious

-Julius Thomas: 6.6 million
-Lawrence Timmons: 5.4

Could Cut

-Bobby McCain: 1.9
-Ted Larsen: 1
-Stephone Anthony: 1.5

If Healthy

-Juwan James: 9.3

Total Savings: 25.7

Starting Cap: 8.2
Savings: 25.7
Total Budget: 33.9

Estimated Draft Pool: 7 million
Emergency Fund: 3 million
Basic Free Agent Signings: 6 million
Franchise Tag: 16 million

Thoughts

The Dolphins could tag Landry if they are willing to cut everyone listed, if they are allowed to cut James, and they are willing to operate with a free agency budget of 6 million.

They would have only 49 players under contract after the cuts so they would need to add [49+7 picks=56] they would need add roughly 7 players to the top group for about 6 million.

This would likely cost them most of their current free agents, Aikins, Thomas, Hayes.

They could cut Tannehill and save 15 million, but that would leave them with 0 QBs on the roster and we know that you are not getting McCarron or Keenum or someone who can start for less that 15.

They could restructure Suh's contract again, but it is becomeing a nuclear bomb. 28 million dollar cap hits with 15 million in dead money if released.

The Dolphins really need Landry on a multi year deal with a cap hit below 10 million in 2017. Not impossible, but if he hits the market my guess is that teams like the Bears will front load the deal to screw the Dolphins.

Best case scenario if you want the Bears to sign him is that Miami puts he transitions tag on Landry, which gives them the right to match any contract, this eliminates teams like Baltimore that cannot afford to front load the contract. The Bears would come in and offer him a 5 year deal with a 18-20 million cap hit year 1 and the Dolphins could not match the structure of the contract.

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Can the Jaguars tag Allen Robinson

Starting Cap: 16.5 million

Cuts

Likely

Allen Hurns: 7 million
Chris Ivory: 3 million
Marcedes Lewis: 3.5 million

Starting Cap: 16.5 million
Savings: 13.5 million
Cap Space: 30 million

Estimated Draft Class: 5.5 million
Emergency Fund: 3 million
Franchise Tag: 16 million
Total Expenses: 24.5 million

Free Agent Budget: 5.5 million

Thoughts

This is far more financially feasible than the Landry tag.

It will leave a very tight free agent budget, but the Jags have a number of players under contract that they could conceivably not be very active in free agency.

They could clear more space by releasing Marcell Dareus which would save them roughly 7 million or there was a rumor they might trade Malik Jackson which would free up another 9.5 million.

The question is how much do they value Robinson because tagging him would have a major impact on what they can do and will likely cost them a couple of contributing players.

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19 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I am trying to determine whether the Dolphins can tag Jarvis Landry,

Starting Cap: 8.2 million

Cuts

Obvious

-Julius Thomas: 6.6 million
-Lawrence Timmons: 5.4

Could Cut

-Bobby McCain: 1.9
-Ted Larsen: 1
-Stephone Anthony: 1.5

If Healthy

-Juwan James: 9.3

Total Savings: 25.7

Starting Cap: 8.2
Savings: 25.7
Total Budget: 33.9

Estimated Draft Pool: 7 million
Emergency Fund: 3 million
Basic Free Agent Signings: 6 million
Franchise Tag: 16 million

Thoughts

The Dolphins could tag Landry if they are willing to cut everyone listed, if they are allowed to cut James, and they are willing to operate with a free agency budget of 6 million.

They would have only 49 players under contract after the cuts so they would need to add [49+7 picks=56] they would need add roughly 7 players to the top group for about 6 million.

This would likely cost them most of their current free agents, Aikins, Thomas, Hayes.

They could cut Tannehill and save 15 million, but that would leave them with 0 QBs on the roster and we know that you are not getting McCarron or Keenum or someone who can start for less that 15.

They could restructure Suh's contract again, but it is becomeing a nuclear bomb. 28 million dollar cap hits with 15 million in dead money if released.

The Dolphins really need Landry on a multi year deal with a cap hit below 10 million in 2017. Not impossible, but if he hits the market my guess is that teams like the Bears will front load the deal to screw the Dolphins.

Best case scenario if you want the Bears to sign him is that Miami puts he transitions tag on Landry, which gives them the right to match any contract, this eliminates teams like Baltimore that cannot afford to front load the contract. The Bears would come in and offer him a 5 year deal with a 18-20 million cap hit year 1 and the Dolphins could not match the structure of the contract.

They could presumably create Landry space by restructuring a lot of their longer term guys likely to play out their full contract, like Stills, Reshad Jones or Kiko. They could move on from Cameron Wake too. If they want to keep him they can do it if they’re willing to make some tougher decisions. Their cap situation in general is a giant mess though. Criticize Pace as you will, but I’d much rather be where we are than where Miami is. They’re closer in terms of record, but they aren’t good enough to be a serious contender and basically have no room to make any moves having a bunch of not good enough to win a SB guys locked in on long guarantees. 

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18 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Can the Jaguars tag Allen Robinson

Starting Cap: 16.5 million

Cuts

Likely

Allen Hurns: 7 million
Chris Ivory: 3 million
Marcedes Lewis: 3.5 million

Starting Cap: 16.5 million
Savings: 13.5 million
Cap Space: 30 million

Estimated Draft Class: 5.5 million
Emergency Fund: 3 million
Franchise Tag: 16 million
Total Expenses: 24.5 million

Free Agent Budget: 5.5 million

Thoughts

This is far more financially feasible than the Landry tag.

It will leave a very tight free agent budget, but the Jags have a number of players under contract that they could conceivably not be very active in free agency.

They could clear more space by releasing Marcell Dareus which would save them roughly 7 million or there was a rumor they might trade Malik Jackson which would free up another 9.5 million.

The question is how much do they value Robinson because tagging him would have a major impact on what they can do and will likely cost them a couple of contributing players.

I ultimately think they do what they can to keep Robinson, but I think the emergence of Keelan Cole made the topic more interesting than I expected it to be. Cole-Lee-Westbrook with Fournette is pretty solid, and they can keep Lee for about 60% of Robinson’s price tag. They should do whatever they can to not mess with their D at all. 

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30 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

They could presumably create Landry space by restructuring a lot of their longer term guys likely to play out their full contract, like Stills, Reshad Jones or Kiko. They could move on from Cameron Wake too. If they want to keep him they can do it if they’re willing to make some tougher decisions. Their cap situation in general is a giant mess though. Criticize Pace as you will, but I’d much rather be where we are than where Miami is. They’re closer in terms of record, but they aren’t good enough to be a serious contender and basically have no room to make any moves having a bunch of not good enough to win a SB guys locked in on long guarantees. 

There is a nuclear option they could go to, but most of those deals are a mess already.

 

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Interesting idea, if the Dolphins Trade is A Kenny Stills they would clear 4.5 million dollars in cap space and would open up more room for Landry.

Not sure if they would be interested, but it would allow them to move money around and clear some WR space.

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4 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Interesting idea, if the Dolphins Trade is A Kenny Stills they would clear 4.5 million dollars in cap space and would open up more room for Landry.

Not sure if they would be interested, but it would allow them to move money around and clear some WR space.

Honestly I’d rather have Stills anyway. Pretty good chance their GM made his choice between the two when he gave Stills that contract last offseason too. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Landry either, seeing as how Stills is largely a one-trick pony and at the time Landry was coming off his best season. 

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23 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Honestly I’d rather have Stills anyway. Pretty good chance their GM made his choice between the two when he gave Stills that contract last offseason too. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Landry either, seeing as how Stills is largely a one-trick pony and at the time Landry was coming off his best season. 

I think that might be a little deep of a reading into it.

Mike Tannenbaums cap management really should reflect anything other than the fact he failed basic math in high school.

Stills to me would be a nice add. Richardson of stayed healthy and gave you 800 yards every season.

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I am trying to think about 2nd teir additions would make the best receiving core,

This is assuming we get skunked on our top targets.

1. Meredith

2. Marquise Lee, consistentish and decent physical tools.

3. DJ Moore (2nd round)

4. Kendall Wright, seems to have a connection and can hold the job until Moore is ready.

5. John Brown, I am taking a 1-2 year flyer on a vet who can run. Not paying a ton, but seeing if we can get a specialist.

6. White

 

1. Shaheen

2. Burton, I am going to flex him all over and use him for 60-70 targets. Also means we don’t have to force feed Shaheen who is already going way up at 80 targets.

 

 

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