Ranking the 2018 WRs

[diamondbull424]

Starting out this thread was supposed to be all about Michael Gallup as my top receiver in this class. Then I figured at different times I’ve been leading the bandwagons for Michael Gallup and DJ Moore, respectively. I also went from hating Courtland Sutton as a prospect to appreciating his dominance as I saw more double teams on Sutton than any other prospect on this list.

All of those guys were so tightly contested that I figured there had to be a way to organize them without relying solely on tape/me watching it. Mainly because they are so closely ranked that my opinion goes back and forth.

I looked over analytics determine the top option of the bunch. But outside of college dominator, I didn’t see a way to compare what each talent brings to the table via the eyeball test. I’m not sure the list shows who the best player of the bunch is as much as the players that are least likely to bust given that it factors in on field skill set, production, and size/athleticism. But really it was mainly just for fun.

Adjusted Top 5 Receivers

1. DJ Moore

2. Courtland Sutton

3. Michael Gallup

4. Anthony Miller

5. Justin Watson

[Danand]

Gallup is right there with Washington, Miller, Sutton, Kirk, Ridley and maybe Hamilton who I wouldn't mind with our second round pick. As you said, he is a tweener between the polished Ridley and the physical Moore.

[Danand]

I'm beginning to look more in depth at the second tier of receivers. I would prefer, if we get a talent at the top of the draft, and then add a complimentary receiver in the 5-6 round. Here we could get talents like Pettis, Fountain (raw as hell), Berrios, Cain, Coutee etc. who could each fill out a specific role as either a chain mover, returner or deep threat

[diamondbull424]

DB424 Grading Scale

1. College Dominator

Good: 25-35% = 1.5 point

Great: 35-45% = 2.5 point

Elite: 45%+ = 3.5 points

2. Hands

Good: few drops on tape = 1 point

Great: few drops/splash plays = 2 points

Elite: no drops/splash plays = 3 points

3. Route Running (deep, mid, short)

1. Flat 2. Slant 3. Comeback 4. Curl 5. Out 6. In/Dig 7. Corner 8. Post 9. Fly/Go 10. Bubble/Screen. I define productive as twenty or more points above the national average for a NCAA receiver.

Good: Productive at 1/3 = 1 point

Great: Productive at 2/3 = 2 points

Elite: Productive at 3/3 = 3 points

4. Agility/3-cone

Good: 7.00-7.20 = 0.5 point

Great: 6.80-7.00 = 1 points

Elite: Sub 6.80 = 1.5 points

5. Deep Speed/Forty or YPC

Good: 4.45-4.53 = 0.5 point

Great: 4.36-4.44 = 1.0 point

Elite: Sub 4.35 = 1.5 points

6. Acceleration/Initial Separation- 10 yd

Good: 1.57-1.59 = 0.5 point

Great: 1.54-1.56 = 1.0 point

Elite: Sub 1.53 = 1.5 points

7. Burst/Short Shuttle or Vertical

Good: 4.10-4.20 or 34”-36”= 0.5 point

Great: 4.00-4.10 or 35”-37”= 1.0 point

Elite: 3.90-4.00 or 38”+ = 1.5 points

8. Yards After Catch (spd/str/vision)

Good: wins with 1/3 = 0.5 point

Great: wins with 2/3 = 1 points

Elite: wins with 3/3 = 1.5 points

9. Size

Good: 6’3” = 0.5 point

Great: 6’4” = 1 point

Elite: 6’5”+ = 1.5 points

10. Age (Draft Age)

Good: 22 = 0.5 points

Great: 21 = 1.0 points

Elite: 20 = 1.5 points

Baseline

AJ Green: 2.5, 3, 3, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 0.5 = 13.5/20

Julio Jones: 1.5, 2, 2, 1.5, 1, 1.5, 1.5, 1, 0.5, 0.5= 13/20

OBJ: 1.5, 2, 3, 1.5, 1, 0.5, 1.5, 1, 0, 1= 13/20

Mike Evans: 2.5, 3, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 1, 0.5, 1.5, 1.5 = 13/20

DeAndre Hopkins: 2.5, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0.5, 1.5 = 12.5/20

Alshon Jeffery: 2.5, 3, 1, 1.5, 0.5, 0, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5 = 11/20

Torrey Smith: 2.5, 0, 1, 1.5, 1, 1, 1.5, 1, 0, 0.5 = 9.5/20

Nelson Agholor: 1.5, 1, 2, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 0, 1 = 9.5/20

2017 Top 10 Drafted Receivers

5. Corey Davis: INJ

7. Mike Williams: 1.5, 2, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5 = 8/10

9. John Ross: 1.5, 1, 2, 0, 1.5, 1.5, 1, 0.5, 0, 1 = 10/20

37. Zay Jones: 2.5, 2, 1, 1.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0.5 = 10/20

40. Curtis Samuel: 1.5, 1, 1, 0.5, 1.5, 1, 1, 0.5, 0, 1.5 = 9.5/20

62. Juju Smith-Schuster: 1.5, 2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0.5, 1, 1.5 = 10.5/20

69. Cooper Kupp: 2.5, 2, 2, 1.5, 0, 0.5, 1, 1, 0, 0 = 10.5/20

73. Taywan Taylor: 2.5, 1, 1, 1.5, 0.5, 1.5, 0, 0, 0, 0.5 = 8.5/20

79. Ardarius Stewart: 2.5, 1, 1, x, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 0 = 6.5/20

[diamondbull424]

 Top 2018 Wide Receiver Prospects

Top Tier (12+)

1. DJ Moore: 3.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.5, 1.5, 0, 1.5= 12.5/20

2. Courtland Sutton: 2.5, 2, 2, 1.5, 1, 1.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5 = 12.5/20

3. Anthony Miller: 2.5, 2, 3, 1.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1.5, 1, 0, 0 = 12/20

Upper Middle Tier (10 to 12)

4. Michael Gallup: 2.5, 2, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 0, 0.5 = 11/20

5. Justin Watson: 3.5, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 1.5, 0, 0, 0.5 = 10.5/20

Middle Tier (9 to 10)

6. Cedric Wilson: 2.5, 1, 3, 1, 0, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 0, 0.5 = 10/20

7. Christian Kirk: 2.5, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1 = 9.5/20

8. Calvin Ridley: 1.5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0.5, 0, 0 = 9/20

 

Low Middle Tier

9. Keke Coutee: 1.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 0, 1 = 8.5/20

10. Jordan Lasley: 2.5, 1, 1, 0, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 0, 1 = 8.5/20

11. DJ Chark: 0, 1, 1, x, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1 = 8.5/20

12. J. Washington: 1.5, 1, 3, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 0.5 = 8.5/20

13. Jaleel Scott: 1.5, 1, 2, 0.5, 0, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1.5, 0 = 8.5/20

14. Allen Lazard: 1.5, 2, 1, x, 0, 0.5, 1.5, 0.5, 1, 0.5 = 8.5/20

15. Deontay Burnett: N/A- injury

16. Daunte Pettis: N/A- injury

17. Daurice Fountain: 2.5, 1, 1, x, 1, x, 1.5, 0, 0, 0.5 = 7.5/20

Low Tier

18. EQ St. Brown: 1.5, 0, 1, x, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1 = 7/20

19. Auden Tate: 1.5, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1.5, 1 = 7/20

20. Deon Cain: 1.5, 0, 1, 1.5, 1, 0.5, 0, 0, 0, 1 = 6.5/20

21. Marcel Ateman: 0, 2, 2, 0.5, 0, 0, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 0 = 6.5/20

22. D. Hamilton: 1.5, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 0 = 6.5/20

23. TreQuan Smith- 1.5, 0, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 1, 0.5, 0, 1 = 6/20

24. Jake Wieneke: 2.5, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0.5, 0, 1, 0 = 6/20

[Danand]

Cedric Wilson shouldn't be that high. He will most likely have a role in the NFL, but I think we have already seen, that in our division and with our style of play, we need physical receivers and he isn't really that.

[diamondbull424]

23 minutes ago, Danand said:

1. Cedric Wilson shouldn't be that high. He will most likely have a role in the NFL, but I think we have already seen, that in our division and with our style of play, 2. we need physical receivers and he isn't really that.

1. This isn’t my ranking based off tape alone, based off tape, Michael Gallup is my top receiver in this class. But this ranking is my attempt at a form of analytics.

2. That said, after watching a lot of Cedric Wilson, while I do have a few more receivers ranked higher than him, I think you are vastly underrating his toughness. He routinely won with routes going over the middle. In fact, he was surgical in his efficiency. Wilson is the best route runner in this draft class. And has lined up in the slot as well as outside. He’s taken hits. In fact his toughness can also be displayed with the fact that he returns kicks. Wilson may have a slender frame, sure, but he does not play as soft as someone his size would normally play. He’s tough and will make contested grabs. Here’s a breakdown of where Wilson and the top receivers in this class win on their routes. 

[Danand]

46 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

1. This isn’t my ranking based off tape alone, based off tape, Michael Gallup is my top receiver in this class. But this ranking is my attempt at a form of analytics.

2. That said, after watching a lot of Cedric Wilson, while I do have a few more receivers ranked higher than him, I think you are vastly underrating his toughness. He routinely won with routes going over the middle. In fact, he was surgical in his efficiency. Wilson is the best route runner in this draft class. And has lined up in the slot as well as outside. He’s taken hits. In fact his toughness can also be displayed with the fact that he returns kicks. Wilson may have a slender frame, sure, but he does not play as soft as someone his size would normally play. He’s tough and will make contested grabs. Here’s a breakdown of where Wilson and the top receivers in this class win on their routes. 

I did not see any of that. The best route runner? Is this based of what you've read or what you have seen?

I saw 5-6 games, where he created seperation on go routes and crossing routes and out routes. He mostly won be lenght or when the defense played zone. He didn't catch the ball well in traffic over the middle. He did a really nice job tracking the ball well over the shoulder on deep passes. And while he does creates some yards after the catch, he requries quite a lot of space to do it due to his long frame.

I think some (myself included when I saw his highlights) get caught by the AJ Green comparison, when he with those long legs just glides down the field. That is also something which he should work on. He mostly glides around and is easily interrupted when met up front by physical cornerbacks.

[diamondbull424]

7 hours ago, Danand said:

I did not see any of that. The best route runner? Is this based of what you've read or what you have seen?

I saw 5-6 games, where he created seperation on go routes and crossing routes and out routes. He mostly won be lenght or when the defense played zone. He didn't catch the ball well in traffic over the middle. He did a really nice job tracking the ball well over the shoulder on deep passes. And while he does creates some yards after the catch, he requries quite a lot of space to do it due to his long frame.

I think some (myself included when I saw his highlights) get caught by the AJ Green comparison, when he with those long legs just glides down the field. That is also something which he should work on. He mostly glides around and is easily interrupted when met up front by physical cornerbacks.

A combination of the two. Granted, I haven’t watched EVERY single prospect in this class. Just the 20 prospects that have been considered the best of this class by cbssports.

I still need to watch Ricky Jeune of Georgia Tech, Justin Watson of Penn, and Jake Wieneke of SDSU (who I’ve seen some of just by virtue of watching Dallas Goedert).

Based off what I have seen though Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Calvin Ridley were both the best route runners in this class. That is also backed up by the PFF tracking of their routes. He performed well on out breaking routes, sure, but he was the most surgical receiver on in breaking routes as well. Only Sutton and Ridley give him competition.

Most of the other receivers won over the middle at only one level. Don’t get me wrong I like DJ Moore and Christian Kirk, but their prowess over the middle was largely restricted to the first level of the defense. Calvin Ridley short and intermediate and Courtland Sutton on short and deep routes. Wilson attacks all three levels. Part of that is PFF tracking, but watching the tape the same is true.

[Danand]

38 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

A combination of the two. Granted, I haven’t watched EVERY single prospect in this class. Just the 20 prospects that have been considered the best of this class by cbssports.

I still need to watch Ricky Jeune of Georgia Tech, Justin Watson of Penn, and Jake Wieneke of SDSU (who I’ve seen some of just by virtue of watching Dallas Goedert).

Based off what I have seen though Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Calvin Ridley were both the best route runners in this class. That is also backed up by the PFF tracking of their routes. He performed well on out breaking routes, sure, but he was the most surgical receiver on in breaking routes as well. Only Sutton and Ridley give him competition.

Most of the other receivers won over the middle at only one level. Don’t get me wrong I like DJ Moore and Christian Kirk, but their prowess over the middle was largely restricted to the first level of the defense. Calvin Ridley short and intermediate and Courtland Sutton on short and deep routes. Wilson attacks all three levels. Part of that is PFF tracking, but watching the tape the same is true.

Guess I have to watch tape again as I saw none of that. Currently I have him slotted after DaeSean Hamilton who is the last of my "tier 1" receivers.

[diamondbull424]

46 minutes ago, Danand said:

Guess I have to watch tape again as I saw none of that. Currently I have him slotted after DaeSean Hamilton who is the last of my "tier 1" receivers.

I was surprised to see Hamilton as low on the scale as he is (low tier) as I thought he looked solid on tape and would probably end up in the middle tier.

But in the end, I suppose it makes sense. He didn’t really pop out to me when watching him. His athleticism appeared to be average at to below average for his profile. Definite slot limitations, but his quickness wasn’t good enough on tape to have me believe he will be a high end slot option either. He had good/reliable hands so I think he will do well finding holes in zones, but if he’s asked to consistently beat man coverage from a good slot corner, I don’t like his chances.

Edit: That said, after going back and watching Hamilton, I thought his route running was definitely better than I gave him credit for initially. I had to readjust his value slightly for that reason.

In terms of Wilson, I do plan on watching more tape and pointing you to examples in the video of his inside route running ability when I get a little more time. Either way, I appreciate the dialogue, it definitely helps with doing these players proper justice.

[Danand]

Hamilton caught my eye at the senior bowl. Now the thing is, he doesn't have the same explosiveness in his cuts and breaks on tape as he did on 1on1's.

Some players just work better without anticipating traffic and Hamilton might be one of those. Do I want him in the 4-5 round or Berrios in the 6-7 round? I could possibly end up moving Wilson into the same category as Hamilton here after a closer look.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Danand said:

Hamilton caught my eye at the senior bowl. Now the thing is, he doesn't have the same explosiveness in his cuts and breaks on tape as he did on 1on1's.

Some players just work better without anticipating traffic and Hamilton might be one of those. Do I want him in the 4-5 round or Berrios in the 6-7 round? I could possibly end up moving Wilson into the same category as Hamilton here after a closer look.

The one thing I forgot to mention. I do agree with your initial point, I think we need to be looking at which late round receivers could potentially be breakout candidates. Take a receiver on day two and day three.

I was of the opinion of targeting a receiver on day one of the draft, but after further review and especially now after gathering this data, I would be surprised if all of those tier one receivers are off the board by our second round pick.

Ideally, Michael Gallup and Anthony Miller should still be available in the second round. Gallup actually reminds me a lot of Michael Crabtree from what he brings to the table, just not as fiery. It would do him good to learn from Crabtree.

Then we would double dip in the 4th/5th round with a guy like Cedrick Wilson or one of those mid tier guys. Coutee would fit the slot role perfectly and actually looks much faster on tape than he tested. Allen Lazard is a personal favorite of mines as well, really think his receiver ability has been underrated to this point. Especially in comparison to a player like Auden Tate, who is raw and moves like a tight end... he probably goes undrafted and will be forced to make the switch on someone’s practice squad.

[drd23]

6 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

That is also backed up by the PFF tracking of their routes. 

The problem with using these numbers as a measure of route running ability is that it uses the NCAA average as the baseline when the receivers aren't necessarily having NCAA average throwing to them.

DJ Moore has an inherent disadvantage in this method because he had a walk-on throwing to him most of the time, whereas guys like Miller, Washington and Ateman have guys that are well above average throwing to them.

Reception Perception is a better measure of route running ability, but I can only see articles for 3 WRs (Washington, Ridley & St Brown) by Matt Harmon at present

[diamondbull424]

33 minutes ago, drd23 said:

The problem with using these numbers as a measure of route running ability is that it uses the NCAA average as the baseline when the receivers aren't necessarily having NCAA average throwing to them.

DJ Moore has an inherent disadvantage in this method because he had a walk-on throwing to him most of the time, whereas guys like Miller, Washington and Ateman have guys that are well above average throwing to them.

Reception Perception is a better measure of route running ability, but I can only see articles for 3 WRs (Washington, Ridley & St Brown) by Matt Harmon at present

True. But like I said, it’s simply an indicator of what to look out for. It’s like having a buddy watch a movie you plan to see and he says, “it was good, but I wouldn’t take your kids to see it because it’s a lot of gore.” I very well might have kids that are bad@33 and can easily watch gore without it affecting them, but I know what to look out for. Same here, I still watch the guys to make my own determinations of their ability. But it definitely helps with their heads up in this case.