Alex Smith vs Matthew Stafford

[Bobikus]

Smith is much more of a threat to scramble than Stafford, but "rusher with way more TDs" is a blatant lie.

[HTTRDynasty]

20 minutes ago, theuntouchable said:

Stafford averages about 17 turnovers, not 20. 

Alex smith averages 15 TDs a year. Stafford, 23.

completion % is roughly the same (about a half of a percent better for smith)

vastly superior rusher? They have the same amount of TDs and smith has run over twice the amount of times that Stafford has. I wouldn’t in anyway say vastly superior. 

 

In the past 5 years, Stafford has averaged ~ 21 INTs/fumbles.  Smith has averaged ~12. 

Stafford has averaged ~ 27 passing TDs.  Smith has averaged ~ 20.  Rushing TD average is 1 for Stafford and 2 for Smith.

And Smith's completion percentage is two percentage points higher (with a higher adjusted yards per attempt), while his passer rating is 3 points higher.

Smith has also averaged a higher AV than Stafford over the past 5 years.  Not sure how much you value that.

[theuntouchable]

28 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Stafford has been called upon dozens of times - with the season on the line for the Lions.
He's never answered the bell. As a Packer fan, I've seen it up close and personal.

Tons of god given ability, zero argument there and he's fun to watch. Amazing thrower.

But I wouldn't bet a nickle on him coming through in crunch time. He's never been a student of the game and his recent resurgence under Jim Bob Cooter is directly attributable to them reeling Matthew in with shorter, less risky passes. In other words, they can't trust his talent and want to turn him into a game manager.

What does that tell you about his ability to come through if called upon ?

Since 2014, the Lions have been in position to win the game late in the 4th quarter after being down 24 times. Stafford has lead the Lions to a win in 20 of those situations. You can keep your dome, meanwhile I’ll drop good money on those odds. 

Last 5 games of the season? He averages a 94.5 passer rating, 1.7 TDS and .77 INTs.

you say you’ve witnessed him fail numerous times, so I’m assuming you’re talking about GB late in the season. In the 7 games that has happened, he holds a 100.75 passer rating with 2.7 TDS and .86 INTs in those games. Seems more like Stafford is doing his part there too. 

[theuntouchable]

7 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

In the past 5 years, Stafford has averaged ~ 21 INTs/fumbles.  Smith has averaged ~12. 

Stafford has averaged ~ 27 passing TDs.  Smith has averaged ~ 20.  Rushing TD average is 1 for Stafford and 2 for Smith.

And Smith's completion percentage is two percentage points higher (with a higher adjusted yards per attempt), while his passer rating is 3 points higher.

Smith has also averaged a higher AV than Stafford over the past 5 years.  Not sure how much you value that.

Curious, why just the last 5 years?

[Bobikus]

During those 5 years, the Chiefs averaged 120 rushing YPG to 88 for the Lions, with the Chiefs averaging roughly 4.6 rushing Y/A to the Lions' 3.7.  The defenses have allowed fairly similar yardage, but the Chiefs average 27 takeaways per year to the Lions' 19.

[Bobikus]

3 minutes ago, theuntouchable said:

Curious, why just the last 5 years?

It's the span of time that Alex was in KC so it's a decent length of time without having Smith be in two completely different situations during the span.

[HTTRDynasty]

4 minutes ago, theuntouchable said:

Curious, why just the last 5 years?

Smith rarely played more than 11 games before that season.  Incidentally, it's also the season he went to KC (2013).  

[theuntouchable]

1 minute ago, Bobikus said:

It's the span of time that Alex was in KC so it's a decent length of time without having Smith be in two completely different situations during the span.

Sure, but then couldn’t I just choose the timeframe that Stafford has had the same coach for and show those stats?? I’m mostly being facetious here but I believe my point comes out in it.

[HTTRDynasty]

4 minutes ago, Bobikus said:

During those 5 years, the Chiefs averaged 120 rushing YPG to 88 for the Lions, with the Chiefs averaging roughly 4.6 rushing Y/A to the Lions' 3.7.  The defenses have allowed fairly similar yardage, but the Chiefs average 27 takeaways per year to the Lions' 19.

As someone who has been a fan of a team with a terrible running game for the past 5 years, I can tell you that the QB has a huge impact (threat of the run, making appropriate checks at the line, etc.) on how effective the running game can be.  Let's see how successful the running game is in KC this season vs. how successful it was last season. 

[Bobikus]

1 minute ago, theuntouchable said:

Sure, but then couldn’t I just choose the timeframe that Stafford has had the same coach for and show those stats?? I’m mostly being facetious here but I believe my point comes out in it.

Yeah, any cutoff is going to be pretty arbitrary anyway.  There is a point to be made there though since the big sticking point against Stafford has been turnovers, but Stafford dropped from an average of 19Ints per 16 games under Schwartz to 11 per 16 games under Caldwell.

[theuntouchable]

2 minutes ago, Bobikus said:

Yeah, any cutoff is going to be pretty arbitrary anyway.  There is a point to be made there though since the big sticking point against Stafford has been turnovers, but Stafford dropped from an average of 19Ints per 16 games under Schwartz to 11 per 16 games under Caldwell.

Oh absolutely, I have no issues with agreeing that Smith is more protective of the ball. I will say that I think a Stafford has (mostly) done well in that regard considering how much he has been asked to throw the ball.

[theuntouchable]

6 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

As someone who has been a fan of a team with a terrible running game for the past 5 years, I can tell you that the QB has a huge impact (threat of the run, making appropriate checks at the line, etc.) on how effective the running game can be.  Let's see how successful the running game is in KC this season vs. how successful it was last season. 

Help direct me to your point here.

[Bobikus]

4 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

As someone who has been a fan of a team with a terrible running game for the past 5 years, I can tell you that the QB has a huge impact (threat of the run, making appropriate checks at the line, etc.) on how effective the running game can be.  Let's see how successful the running game is in KC this season vs. how successful it was last season. 

You're not wrong about the QB affecting the run game but somehow I doubt that Stafford is the reason that Joique Bell and Theo Riddick weren't matching the production of Jamaal Charles or Kareem Hunt.

[HTTRDynasty]

7 minutes ago, Bobikus said:

You're not wrong about the QB affecting the run game but somehow I doubt that Stafford is the reason that Joique Bell and Theo Riddick weren't matching the production of Jamaal Charles or Kareem Hunt.

True, but in 2015, the Chiefs ranked 6th in rushing yards and 3rd in YPA with Charcandrick West as their leading rusher.  Everywhere Smith has gone, no matter who the RB was, he has led an effective rushing attack.  That's not a coincidence.

[Shanedorf]

20 minutes ago, theuntouchable said:

Stafford averages about 17 turnovers, not 20.

 

Splitting hairs here: I came up with 13.1 INTs and 6.3 fumbles per season ( I did not include the 4 INTs he threw on Monday) via Pro Football Reference. Either way its way worse than Smith and we all know how important turnovers are in deciding NFL games

They rank right next to each other on the INT list for active QBs, the difference being that Stafford threw 26 more in 4 fewer seasons

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_int_active.htm

Game killing Pick Sixes ? Stafford leads Smith 19-7, in 4 fewer seasons, He's currently tied with Jay freaking Cutler.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pick_six_active.htm

I think you can make a solid case for solid Smith, others prefer the more mercurial Stafford.

When we talked about Smith in the offseason, a couple of Packers fans suggested that Smith- to- the- vikings was a greater threat to GB than Cousins- to- the- vikings and I agreed. Smith takes care of the football, I doubt he has any 4 INT games, while Stafford just added another one to his career total. I watched Favre throw away game after game with boneheaded plays, I see the same fatal flaw in Stafford despite his obvious talent.