BDL 2018 Quarterfinals: #5 Louisiana Jazz @ #4 Seoul Dragons

[MD4L]

Best game of round one due to Cam Newton’s injury. 

LOU O V Seoul D

I find it hard to believe Seoul is devoted to stopping the run with two sub 220 DBs working at safety. Even if they show seven in the box, Louisiana will be able to have success establishing Zeke. The best bet would’ve been starting Hightower in a early down role and having the 3 S look on passing situations. 

Otherwise, it could be hard for Louisiana to get its usual flow. I do think Louisiana can win some reps against the Seoul interior, but paired with that edge rush is enough to make an impact. Slay actually caught an INT from Brady this year and albeit elite this year, Thomas has his work cut out for him against Darius Slay. Using a CB to cover White was a unappreciated move I like a ton. I think Zeke can gash this team so it’ll be important to stop the run and force the pass if Seoul seems to remain competitive. Ertz and Cook are the receivers I think that go off.

Seoul O v LOU D

On the other side, I think Ryan can have some success. Seoul called the Louisiana interior defensive line average and that’s far from the truth. Casey is a monster and Richardson is a starter in this league. The pass rushers on the outside are more than reasonably productive. It’s a compete unit to deal with and they should have a reasonable amount of success. No one mentioned Ballage getting touches and he certainly capitalized on it. I think Hilton + Kelce is pretty good, and they’ve got some other weapons coming along (Calloway + Everett). There was a narrative that LOU carries suspect cover LBs and with Travathan that’s far from the truth. I think LOU has one suspect safety in Chung but otherwise trot a capable secondary.

This is the only round with home field and I do account for that. I think Zeke getting his workload makes things easier for Brady. He might have some trouble getting his offense established but when it is Tom Brady, you can only do so much to reasonably stop him. He’ll get going. 

I also thinking Seoul can have some success establishing its offense. I don’t like the matchup for Kelce at all (Travathan + safety help works much better) but otherwise match very well.

Nonetheless, I will take the upset here as I think Seoul’s work in the trenches, Travis Kelce, and a sturdy run game lead to a victory.

[Xmad]

Seoul's injuries hurt them here, they have the firepower to keep this close but I don't see their defense keeping up. The Jazz going a bit more run heavy is the smartest play they can make, it won't be 100% effective against Seoul but it's enough to even out against a lackluster Seoul secondary.

 

[Whicker]

Seoul's first paragraph turns me off since he talks about involving my least favorite part of his whole team. It certainly makes me reconsider the importance of gameplan structure.

Jordan Howard is at least an NFL running back now. Hopefully we can all agree now that Kenyan Drake can't play football. Fortunately it only costs Seoul 5-8 plays in this game.

Very good call moving Kelce outside while double teamed. Jordan Howard might get 80 yards.

Kenyan Drake might win a wheel route.

Okay I'm done talking about the Seoul RBs.

I don't think Everett vs Trevathan is that big of a mismatch if it is at all.

Louisiana is missing a corner and maybe I'm just a WR guy, but I like Amendola, Callaway, and Coutee more than Everett and Gates. I think the heavier TE sets by Seoul are a mistake although not a game breaking one.

I think Fuller does a pretty good job on TY but I think TY could win a big one as well. I like giving him a shot with no safety help.

I think Callaway can do stuff.

Seoul does underrate Louisiana interior D-line, but Ryan is well protected.

Seoul's D-line matches up well with Louisiana O-line. It won't be easy for Zeke or Brady.

Shaq Thompson on Elliott ehhhh not my favorite.

I think Ertz has a pretty decent game. Jared Cook I'm less high on.

I think a safety would be the best play on White. A corner is interesting.

I think Michael Thomas has a decent matchup, especially in zone.

Doubling Kelce is really the only play here IMO.

 

 

Unlike the LB/Orlando match where I didn't want to vote for either team, I want to vote for both teams here. I think Seoul can win with their defensive line and running game controlling the game. Jordan Howard takes Louisiana by surprise a bit and Seoul is able to sustain long drives and keep their top heavy defensive line fresh enough to stifle Zeke and pressure Brady on the interior. On the other hand, I think Louisiana wins more skill position matchups and has a better QB.

Give me Seoul at home in a good match

 

[Hockey5djh]

Both teams go Double TE on offense and 3 S on defense. I gotta go with the Jizz, I just don't think that Kelce against double coverage and Hilton against Fuller can get enough going to support the sub par run game.