Mock Offseason

[Rich7sena]

42 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

If you're reloading, then you don't unload the entire roster and trade your best player for draft picks.

That is not a playoff roster. They wouldn't compete in the AFC West.

1) No proven LT - relying on Miller to make a massive leap in year 2. And your forgetting Cable is odds on still the Oline coach.

2) No proven pass rusher - Preston Smith is a nice middle of road pass rusher. Allen would be a rookie so you're relying on him being NFL ready. Would need Key/Hurst/Hall make big jumps.

3) LBs still suck - Barr is just okay, he's a role player. And you're relying on another rookie Pratt in a big role. Cabinda has barely flashed. He's not a starting caliber LB (this is the Morrow conversation all over again). 

This is every Raider offseason for the last decade. Bunch of potential and no actual proven talent. When are we going to see something more that potential is my question? 

I disagree.

The Mack and Cooper trades seem to have more to do with ire between Joel Segal and Mark Davis than any genuine roster rebuild. And expecting players to make a jump from their rookie years to their sophomore years shouldn't be something that is out of the ordinary or unusual. Players tend to get better over time.

Between Smith,  Allen, Hurst, Barr, and Hall, I expect the Raiders to at least have a competent pass rush. The team had Mack for 4 years and never manufactured a good pass rush outside of a few snaps with Aldon Smith. It's about having a collection of players to get after the passer and not just one guy. Although I do expect that one guy to be Josh Allen. Teams can get by with mediocre linebacker play, and I would expect the Raiders to be above average with Pratt and Barr. I'm confident in the game the film I've watched and my player evaluations thus far. I could be wrong, but I've watched plenty of game film or cut-ups of every player in this mock--especially the free agents.

It seems like you're looking for an All-Pro team instead of a playoff team. This mock presents a well-constructed team with a well-balanced ball control offense tailored to the talents of the quarterback and at least a bend but don't break defense with more playmaking upside than it has ever had in the recent past.

Lastly, how does not signing quality free agents answer your question? On one hand, you say the team shouldn't sign a proven All-Pro like Bell because the team is rebuilding, but on the other, you're saying: when will we see more than potential? Seems like you're looking for reasons to be dissatisfied with the team that is already 2-13. Nowhere to go but up.

[NCOUGHMAN]

3 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

 

Hakeem Butler is 6'5" receiver who has incredible ball skills and long speed--I suspect he'll run sub 4.45. He's also very strong despite being lean. My current comp for him is a raw A.J. Green.

Justin Layne is not slow, he's just probably not as fast as Greedy but is probably better in other areas. Do yourself a favor and watch Dwayne Haskin's cut-up vs. Michigan State and keep your eye on #2.

Irv Smith is probably at least 6'3". That's a fine height for a tight end if he proves to be as quick as he seems on the field. Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker are both under 6'3".

If you think Carr's a franchise QB then you're not rebuilding, you're reloading. I believe the team would be playoff viable with this offseason.

Watched butler vs okla you right he’s nice reminds me of Terrell Owens how’s his route running all I saw was streaks and slants

irv plays small imo interested in his vert 

[Humble_Beast]

this would be great offseason, but a bit too optimistic 

[big_palooka]

8 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

The Mack and Cooper trades seem to have more to do with ire between Joel Segal and Mark Davis than any genuine roster rebuild. And expecting players to make a jump from their rookie years to their sophomore years shouldn't be something that is out of the ordinary or unusual. Players tend to get better over time.

Fair to disagree. I don't buy this Segal rhetoric. He's an NFL power agent, what is Davis going to avoid his clients? Segal played hardball and won with Mack. Cooper, they were not going to pay anyway so got value regardless of agent. 

Devils advocate.... some players don't get better over time. They regress or plateau early as has been the case in Oakland for ever.

8 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

Teams can get by with mediocre linebacker play,

Well the Raiders certainly haven't. They've not been good at LB since Greg Beikert was playing! Modern NFL, you have to have guys who can run, cover and tackle. 

I do agree pass rush is about having multiple guys who can effect the passer. I just don't buy the group of guys you mocked as viable. They'll improve, but still be below average overall.

8 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

It seems like you're looking for an All-Pro team instead of a playoff team. This mock presents a well-constructed team with a well-balanced ball control offense tailored to the talents of the quarterback and at least a bend but don't break defense with more playmaking upside than it has ever had in the recent past.

 

I don't think the team you constructed is a playoff team. I don't think you can buy and draft a playoff team in one season. Instead, they need to hit on a their draft picks and develop through the draft. Your mock is relying on 2018 rookies to turn the corner year 2. Smash the 2019 draft and FAs (who are uninspiring) to somehow all gel and compete in the AFC West. I don't see it.

8 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

Lastly, how does not signing quality free agents answer your question? On one hand, you say the team shouldn't sign a proven All-Pro like Bell because the team is rebuilding, but on the other, you're saying: when will we see more than potential? Seems like you're looking for reasons to be dissatisfied with the team that is already 2-13. Nowhere to go but up.

I don't see them as quality. Barr is just a guy. Smith is a workhorse. Parker is a bust you're hoping finds himself. Bell would be a star on a bad team. 

My point is, no sense in signing players like Bell until this potential actually materializes. It's a luxury on a bad team. DEvelop the team first, then sign the luxury players to get over the hump. 

No sense on spending on Bell UNLESS you think you can compete in 2019. Otherwise, it's a waste. Just draft RBs, cheaper and there are some star potentials in the 2020 class.

[Rich7sena]

On 12/19/2018 at 10:56 PM, NCOUGHMAN said:

Watched butler vs okla you right he’s nice reminds me of Terrell Owens how’s his route running all I saw was streaks and slants

irv plays small imo interested in his vert 

I don't think Butler comps to Owens very well. Owens was a much tighter athlete who could simultaneously play big and small depending on the play, route, or circumstances. I think Butler reminds me most of Plaxico Burress. He'll be able to win primarily on deeper routes and endzone fades. He has tremendous upside to become more, but my main reason for liking him is his abilities match with Carr. Carr has shown he prefers throwing to bigger receivers, even out of the slot, versus smaller and quicker players.\

On Irv Smith: it's not necessarily a bad thing for a tight end to play small as long as they're not weak. In fact, playing small is what makes guys like Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz so dangerous when they're being covered by bigger defenders who can't play small.

On 12/20/2018 at 4:08 AM, Humble_Beast said:

this would be great offseason, but a bit too optimistic 

What do you think is overly optimistic about it?

[Rich7sena]

On 12/20/2018 at 7:38 AM, big_palooka said:

Devils advocate.... some players don't get better over time. They regress or plateau early as has been the case in Oakland for ever.

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I don't really see you're point here. Are you expecting the Raiders' rookies to regress next year? Is there a good reason you expect them to regress besides PTSD? There are current Raiders on the roster (Conley, Nelson, Richard) who have improved over time. 

Further, I'm not expecting every rookie or young player on the Raiders roster to progress, just the ones I see potential in based on the film I've watched. For example, I don't expect Parker to progress but I do expect Miller to progress because I've seen the athleticism and ability for him to become better.

Similarly, I don't expect guys like Nelson, Ateman, Cabinda, or even Key to become much more than what they are--that's why the mock has e drafting or signing over them.

Knowing which players have potential to improve and which don't isn't unknowable, you just have to watch the tape and be able to draw conclusions.
 

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Well the Raiders certainly haven't. They've not been good at LB since Greg Beikert was playing! Modern NFL, you have to have guys who can run, cover and tackle. 

 

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But I'm not expecting the Raiders to be mediocre. I believe between Pratt and Barr and the depth that is mostly already on the roster that the Raiders can be at least above average in a year.

But to my overall point: most teams, even most teams that have good defenses, don't rely on their linebackers to be dynamos. Given the allotment of funds, it's much more prudent to ensure quality on the defensive line and at cornerback than at linebacker.

 

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I do agree pass rush is about having multiple guys who can effect the passer. I just don't buy the group of guys you mocked as viable. They'll improve, but still be below average overall

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I simply don't think you've watched enough of the guys I've mocked to make this assessment. Barr is the one wildcard because he hasn't been a consistent pass rusher since UCLA, but after watching him against Miami, rushing off the edge is where he should be at least half the time.

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I don't think the team you constructed is a playoff team. I don't think you can buy and draft a playoff team in one season. Instead, they need to hit on a their draft picks and develop through the draft. Your mock is relying on 2018 rookies to turn the corner year 2. Smash the 2019 draft and FAs (who are uninspiring) to somehow all gel and compete in the AFC West. I don't see it.

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The Jaguars did it last year.

If you have a QB, you have all you need to compete for the playoffs--and the Jaguars didn't even have that.

The NFL is a mercurial league. Aside from a handful of stalwart, teams ebb and flow all the time. The Bills made the playoffs last year and the Titans won a game! I don't know how you could possibly reliably predict who is and isn't a playoff caliber team every year.

This offseason gives the Raiders a chance a playoff contention in 2019 with competitive upside over the course of the next 3 years.

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My point is, no sense in signing players like Bell until this potential actually materializes. It's a luxury on a bad team. DEvelop the team first, then sign the luxury players to get over the hump. 

No sense on spending on Bell UNLESS you think you can compete in 2019. Otherwise, it's a waste. Just draft RBs, cheaper and there are some star potentials in the 2020 class.

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This makes so little sense it makes my head hurt.

You know what makes teams good? Good players. Good and great players--whether they are drafted or signed--are not a luxury, they are a foundation.

Also, it's never wise to plan two drafts ahead--we barely know what lies ahead in this draft.

[NCOUGHMAN]

33 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

I don't think Butler comps to Owens very well. Owens was a much tighter athlete who could simultaneously play big and small depending on the play, route, or circumstances. I think Butler reminds me most of Plaxico Burress. He'll be able to win primarily on deeper routes and endzone fades. He has tremendous upside to become more, but my main reason for liking him is his abilities match with Carr. Carr has shown he prefers throwing to bigger receivers, even out of the slot, versus smaller and quicker players.\

On Irv Smith: it's not necessarily a bad thing for a tight end to play small as long as they're not weak. In fact, playing small is what makes guys like Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz so dangerous when they're being covered by bigger defenders who can't play small.

What do you think is overly optimistic about it?

 

Plax didn’t have much rac iirc Butler looks like a rac monster like t.o. 

Kelsey plays big

ertz I can agree with

just want my te’s to be able to take advantage of miss matches and be tall and play tall 

[Rich7sena]

9 minutes ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

 

Plax didn’t have much rac iirc Butler looks like a rac monster like t.o. 

Kelsey plays big

ertz I can agree with

just want my te’s to be able to take advantage of miss matches and be tall and play tall 

I don't think Butler will have much YAC ability in the NFL. He's strong, but he doesn't accelerate that quickly. 

Kelsey big at catch point, but small everywhere else--just look what he does to Daryl Worley for his first TD against the Raiders. Kelsey would be Ebron if not for his ability to create separation in his routes. I'll also add George Kittle, Delanie Walker, and pre-injury Jordan Reed to the list of TEs who play small.