persiandud Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Recently, in one of my long running dynasty leagues, I traded two 2020 firsts for Todd Gurley. Both of those picks project to be late; the two strongest teams in the league, who met in the finals the year before. I saw this as an easy accept for me. But after some discussion in the group chat, it seems the dynasty community is lower on Gurley and his arthritic knee issues than I had imagined. I took to Twitter to post a poll. I found the results to be, quite frankly, baffling. I really don't understand this. It's not as if Gurley didn't have this same knee with arthritis since entering college and subsequently dominating the league the past few seasons. I understand the Rams want to scale back his workload, traded up for Henderson, and intend to keep Gurley fresh. But even projecting less touches for Gurley, he's such a dominant per touch performer that an RB1 season is very much still in his range of outcomes. He's still only 24 years old! I happen to think all this media exposure about his knee is overblown and has created a bunch of sheep within the dynasty community. Is the 2020 class really that stacked where we can realistically expect more than 2 running backs with Gurley level production? I'm very high on the class, but thinking logically, whenever you can get an elite player like this for draft picks it's a smash accept for me. First round picks hit at a rate less than 20%, and that drops lower past the early and mid first. So, am I crazy? Is this an overreaction from the dynasty community? And if so, should we consider Gurley a screaming value, particularly in dynasty formats? I can tell you I personally have added a handful of shares in startups this summer. The depressed price for a dominant performer is too savory to ignore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 If you would have looked literally 2 threads down before starting this thread you would have seen: Also, I've never heard 'jumping the shark' before lol To answer your question, it's the same knee that he had when he barely got any touches in the Superbowl. He obviously tweaked it at some point. The Rams have ran him so much earlier in his career that even if he is healthy, he will still split carries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
persiandud Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 yea, but this thread is better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 (edited) There is no cure for knee arthritis. Even PRP and Stem Cell treatments have very poor support for cartilage regrowth. It’s only going to get worse from here on out. It limited him late in the season to the point that he had to have his touches limited. That’s troubling. They’ve drafted a very good RB as a contingency to Gurleys knee worsening. That’s troubling. He has intentionally lost weight in hopes of limited the weight through the knee...it’s a great idea but it also supports the concern with the knee He will likely have good weeks and bad weeks from here on out. He could be very good for some games. But there is a real chance his carries are limited or misses games late in the season (during your playoff weeks). You have to incorporate that risk when drafting. Edited August 8, 2019 by sammymvpknight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
persiandud Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 2 hours ago, sammymvpknight said: There is no cure for knee arthritis. Even PRP and Stem Cell treatments have very poor support for cartilage regrowth. It’s only going to get worse from here on out. It limited him late in the season to the point that he had to have his touches limited. That’s troubling. They’ve drafted a very good RB as a contingency to Gurleys knee worsening. That’s troubling. He has intentionally lost weight in hopes of limited the weight through the knee...it’s a great idea but it also supports the concern with the knee He will likely have good weeks and bad weeks from here on out. He could be very good for some games. But there is a real chance his carries are limited or misses games late in the season (during your playoff weeks). You have to incorporate that risk when drafting. so you would have taken the 2 late firsts, i'm assuming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 1 hour ago, persiandud said: so you would have taken the 2 late firsts, i'm assuming? That really depends. Is this a redrafter where all players are available? Or are there 30+ players already off the board to begin the 1st round? Gurley is commonly going in the mid to late 1st round...so under the first scenario, of course I’d rather have the picks. If this is a dynasty/keeper league, it comes down to who I anticipate being available in the late first. I’d rather have Gurley than two late 1sts in a rookie draft, just because rookies also have considerable risk (without demonstrating elite production). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
persiandud Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said: That really depends. Is this a redrafter where all players are available? Or are there 30+ players already off the board to begin the 1st round? Gurley is commonly going in the mid to late 1st round...so under the first scenario, of course I’d rather have the picks. If this is a dynasty/keeper league, it comes down to who I anticipate being available in the late first. I’d rather have Gurley than two late 1sts in a rookie draft, just because rookies also have considerable risk (without demonstrating elite production). if you read my opening post, you'd know what kind of picks they are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, persiandud said: if you read my opening post, you'd know what kind of picks they are How many players are being kept in this dynasty league? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
persiandud Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 1 minute ago, sammymvpknight said: How many players are being kept in this dynasty league? in a dynasty league, you keep everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Just now, persiandud said: in a dynasty league, you keep everyone. If that’s the case I take Gurley. But I do that with the understanding that he’s not the old Gurley. I’d be surprised if he’s an elite RB 3 years from now. I would be surprised if he doesn’t have ongoing issues with that knee. But a combo of two late 1st round rookies also has lots of risk as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Id still take Gurley. If the league is even of average size his next 2 years will likely be more valuable than the careers of the other 2 combined. Not like most great RBs fall that far in dynasty drafts 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 22 hours ago, persiandud said: yea, but this thread is better This thread is a dud of the Persian variety Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
persiandud Posted August 9, 2019 Author Share Posted August 9, 2019 1 hour ago, N4L said: This thread is a dud of the Persian variety Persians are superior so you're giving me a compliment. thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 11 hours ago, persiandud said: Persians are superior so you're giving me a compliment. thanks Call me King Leonidas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
persiandud Posted August 9, 2019 Author Share Posted August 9, 2019 38 minutes ago, N4L said: Call me King Leonidas Lmao I hate that movie so much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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