3 games in thoughts vs Offseason assumptions

[dll2000]

So I was hugely high on this Bears team coming into 2019 because:

1) I thought A Rob would be better in 2019.

2) I thought MT would be better.

3) I thought Daniels would be better.

4) I thought Long would be better with healthy offseason.

5) I thought Roquan would be better.

6) I thought Miller would be better.

7) I thought Shaheen would be better.

8) I thought HHCD was a turnover upgrade player.

9) I thought other guys would maintain.

10) I thought RB situation was upgraded.

11) I thought Nichols would be better.

Where I was wrong and right thus far:

1) Arob IS better.

2) MT is largely same.  People say he is worse, but I just think he isn't better.  I think O Line and TEs are way worse.

3) Daniels has been worse.

4) Long has been worse.

5) Roquan IS better

6) Miller is not better to date (I blame offseason he had and rest of offensive woes combined).

7) Shaheen is better.  But still isn't good.

8) HHCD IS a turnover upgrade player.

9) Other guys have not maintained.  Leno is worse. Whitehair is worse.  Long is worse.  Burton is worse.  Cohen is worse.  Before last game Gabriel has been worse.

10) RB situation IS upgraded, but it doesn't show because of O line and TEs blocking like wet paper bags charging a line in WWI.

11) Nichols has not taken step forward I thought he would and is hurt now.  

Surprises so far (Other than above):

1) RRH is much improved in his pass rush.

2) Floyd is much improved all around.

3) Montgomery is better than I thought he would be when we drafted him.  People don't realize how good he is actually playing because of the blocking and the play calling when he gets the ball.  When you watch closely he is playing amazingly. 

4) Davis is worse than I thought he would be.

5) Cohen has not been good as a slot receiver and they have used him a lot there.  

6) Williams has exceeded expectations by a wide margin.  He is playing exceptionally well.  Might be our best DL with Goldman and Hicks fighting injuries.

7) Skrine has been far better than I thought he would be overall.  He has actually been an upgrade over Callahan IMO.  

Conclusions 3 games in:

1) Our defense, if healthy, is historically good.

2) Our biggest problem right now is our O line play which is largely awful.  

3) Our second biggest problem is our TE play which is awful in blocking and average to below average in receiving.  

4) Our third biggest problem is MT has not gotten better at reading defenses.  It just hasn't clicked for him and I can't tell you why.  it could be it just hasn't and he just needs more time, it could be he isn't smart enough and he never will.   When he speaks he doesn't sound dumb to me.  I don't know what problem that is holding him back is without being in meetings with him.  It could be he is worried about rush after Packers had free runners on him constantly in first game and it is effecting his thinking even when he has a clean pocket, but I don't know.   That is admittedly an excuse.  His biggest problem isn't accuracy like everyone is saying.  Give him a clean pocket and he is accurate.  Not saying he hasn't missed some throws, but everyone misses throws.   He has made enough throws with a clean pocket to tell me is capable of good accuracy.

 People say why isn't this our BIGGEST problem.  QB is most important.  BECAUSE if O line and TEs stop blowing their blocks he doesn't HAVE to be great at reading defenses.  We have enough talent to score anyway. We can score a lot especially with our defense so good.  But we HAVE to stop missing blocks, blocking the wrong guys, and making weak effort blocks.

5) IF we can get O line and TEs playing better, this team will look 100% better and look like contender we thought we would be in offseason.  I have yet to see it this year though.  Washington was best we looked and a lot of plays it still wasn't good and Nagy protected our O line a lot with play calls.  

6) Good news is injuries are taking their toll across the league.  A lot of teams that looked amazing early are going to cease to look so good in coming weeks.

 

 

 

[dll2000]

Where we can be better and things that give me hope:

Daniels and Whitehair are playing mostly like garbage, but they are very talented there is no question. Light can come on any day lets hope it does sooner rather than later.   Leno too.  I think Massie is playing like Massie plays.  

If Long goes to bench we may find someone playing better or adequate at RG serendipitously .  Larsen is next man up and I don't see Larsen as an improvement on paper, but I don't think he can play worse than Long has for most part.  Bars would be a bold and intriguing move.   I think that would be an initial downgrade and a long term improvement.  

Nagy has recognized problems and made adjustments game to game.  Not in game so much, but game to game.

We have seen the hurry up more.  We have seen ARob in slot more.   We have seen more crossing routes.  We have seen a quicker passing game.  We have seen Montgomery get bulk of carries.  

This is sign of a smart coach.  He can't block for these guys.  They have to carry some of water too.

Shaheen CAN improve his blocking if he works on it during the week.  He has to get better.  His receiving I think is better than people think given the opportunities and MT the time.  He just can't get separation.   

Burton I think will improve at receiver as he gets healthier.  Obviously they both have draw backs of different kinds.

[dll2000]

I thought fully healthy that Bears were easily best team in NFCN.

But in actuality they aren't because guys aren't playing as well as they should or haven't improved like I thought they would.  

They are third;

1) MN.  2) Pack.  3) Bears. 4) Detroit.   BUT it's close AND nobody stays fully healthy.  

It's still anyones division to take.

 

[WindyCity]

The OL has been a huge disappointment. They have not been good as a unit. Kyle Long looks done.

The defense is better than I thought. I was expecting their numbers to regress and they are holding steady.

[dll2000]

45 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

The OL has been a huge disappointment. They have not been good as a unit. Kyle Long looks done.

The defense is better than I thought. I was expecting their numbers to regress and they are holding steady.

OL is incredibly huge disappointment. 

I thought the defense would be as good as they have been.  I don't care what numbers say.  Eye test says they are awesome (except for some moments when they were tired or playing soft trying to eek out a win).

Defense to play like they have with our offense playing like it has is amazing.

When Ravens dominated they had a 2000 yard rusher.  When 85 Bears dominated they had Payton and McMahon and Gault and McKinnen and a great O line.  

Our offense is doing very little to help our defense at moment.

 

 

[Sugashane]

You can see after 3 weeks how many receivers are getting open downfield but aren't targeted. Last week there were several 15+ yard shots to take but Tru had to hurry and throw the check down to avoid a sack. The OL has been horrendous. You can't attack deep without having time to throw, even on the bomb to Gabriel there was a poor set. Tru shifted to the left to buy time, Leno saw the stunt late so he basically sprinted back to extend the rusher's path, Tru had to hurry and step right and throw on the move. If the OL was better the entire offense could be substantially better. 

 

I'm almost of the opinion that Long needs to move out to TE rather than Sowell while someone else takes over at G. He's been disgusting. Seeing him get embarrassed like in the Cohen tackle for a loss is like seeing Webb or Omiyale out there. Idk what happened to him. The play in talking about had Shaheen wiff on a pull as well. 

 

If HH can't right the ship then he needs booted. Maybe he is done too, IDK. But there is way too much talent out there for this kind of play. 

 

Nagy's first half was beautiful. My favorite play was Gabriel's 2nd TD. Faked a pick play to get Gabriel open. That is the kind of call you expected. Maybe his playcalling was largely handicapped by the OL sucking? His 2nd half was pretty mediocre but it was a massive step in the right direction. 

 

Edited September 27, 2019 by Sugashane