TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 17 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said: I think Davis has played because of where he was drafted, and already used a 2nd round pick to upgrade him just two years later. I would think at best he would find a back up job elsewhere in the league and likely will be out of the league in a couple years. He is graded as one of the worst starting LBs every year. Decker has been solid, but we are questioning wether we should renew his contract after his rookie deal. That’s a bust IMO as a 1st round pick should be good enough to know you want them back. He is a solid player, I was ok with the pick at the time but it hasn’t worked out. The 2017 draft as a whole you were very generous with. Golladay is great, but that’s really the only decent pick. I get that Agnew has been a decent returner but returner value is so little right now. The rest of that draft is out of the league. 2018 was a solid draft. I like the Kerryon pick at the time and still see the reason for the pick but looks like the injuries should have been a bigger concern. last years draft I know you didn’t include, but I don’t feel good about that either. I think TJ will be ok but again, positional value wasn’t there. The rest looked lost other than Oruwarye looked promising down the stretch. Will have to give them time but I won’t hold my breath. Davis is unable to cover. We know this. Consistently using him to cover is poor judgment, in my opinion. When deployed to solely stop the run, and occasionally rush the passer, Davis has been decent, even helping to hold Zeke Elliott in check against the Cowboys. There's a place for his skillset; hopefully we can utilize him in that way. I completely disagree that Decker has been a bust. Adding one of the best returners in the league with a 5th round pick is a fantastic use of that draft value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 (edited) 30 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: I've already used it on one roster. By all means, give it a shot with another and we can compare. First four years of the Matt Millen Era using @TL-TwoWinsAway's scale. 2001 Detroit Lions draft: 1(18) - Jeff Backus 2(50) - Dominic Raiola 2(61) - Shaun Rogers 5(148) - Scott Anderson 5(149) - Mike McMahon 6(173) - Jason Glenn 2002 1(3) - Joey Harrington 2(35) - Kalimba Edwards 3(68) - Andre Goodman 4(134) - John Taylor 5(175) - John Owens 6(175) - Chris Cash 7(214) - Luke Staley 7(252) - Matt Murphy 7(259) - Victor Rogers 2003 1(2) - Charles Rogers 2(34) - Boss Bailey 3(66) Cory Redding 4(99) Artose Pinner 5(144) James Davis 6(175) David Kircus 7(216) Ben Johnson 7(220) Blue Adams 7(236) Brandon Drumm 7(260) Travis Anglin 2004 1(7) Roy Williams 1(30) Kevin Jones 2(37) Teddy Lehman 3(73) Keith Smith 5(140) Alex Lewis 6(172) Kelly Butler 27/31 = 87% non bust rate for Matt Millen Harrington and Rogers probably wouldn't have been busts using TL's scale in 2004, but I can't say they were anything but busts knowing what we know. Edited January 13, 2020 by Nnivolcm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Keep going. You missed 2005-2008. (Notice the number if high misses as well. He whiffed on a 2nd overall and 3rd overall pick. That's huge.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Keep going. You missed 2005-2008. (Notice the number if high misses as well. He whiffed on a 2nd overall and 3rd overall pick. That's huge.) 7 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said: Harrington and Rogers probably wouldn't have been busts using TL's scale in 2004, but I can't say they were anything but busts knowing what we know. I used the same time frame you've used with BQ. Millen probably wouldn't have made the Harrington pick if he had inherited someone like Stafford as his QB. Edited January 13, 2020 by Nnivolcm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Ha. Aha. Haha. You compared only four of Millen's drafts, ones where he completely missed on a 2nd overall pick and 3rd overall pick, to Quinn's first drafts. So good. Neither Harrington nor Rodgers were good players, but you know this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Millen: 1(2) - Bust 1(3) - Bust 4(134) - Bust 5(148) - Bust Quinn: 2(53) - Bust 4(127) - Bust 5(169) - Bust Millen looks awful by comparison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Ha. Aha. Haha. You compared only four of Millen's drafts, ones where he completely missed on a 2nd overall pick and 3rd overall pick, to Quinn's first drafts. So good. Neither Harrington nor Rodgers were good players, but you know this. I've compared the first four drafts of Millen's with the first four drafts of BQ. Seems fair and logical to me. Patricia hasn't been a good coach, but you assume he will be going forward. If you were at all consistent with your views now, I'm certain you would have assumed Rogers and Harrington would be good going forward in 2004. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Nnivolcm said: I've compared the first four drafts of Millen's with the first four drafts of BQ. Seems fair and logical to me. Patricia hasn't been a good coach, but you assume he will be going forward. If you were at all consistent with your views now, I'm certain you would have assumed Rogers and Harrington would be good going forward in 2004. Huh? When have I assumed that Patricia will be a good coach going forward? I think you need to stop and click through some threads. I've never stated anything close to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Millen: 1(2) - Bust 1(3) - Bust 4(134) - Bust 5(148) - Bust Quinn: 2(53) - Bust 4(127) - Bust 5(169) - Bust Millen looks awful by comparison. Millen was awful. The scale your using to prop up BQ is deeply flawed. My post was to make fun of that by comparing his drafts to someone who is universally known to have been an awful drafter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Huh? When have I assumed that Patricia will be a good coach going forward? I think you need to stop and click through some threads. I've never stated anything close to that. I don't know how I could have come to that conclusion when anytime someone argued Patricia should have been replaced you called them illogical. Wanting to keep a coach you don't think will be good, that's illogical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 I think it makes sense to view this in the lens of "wasted draft value", as that seems to be what matters. Using that approach, we have this: Millen 1(2) – Bust (2600) 1(3) – Bust (2200) 4(134) – Bust (39) 5(148) – Bust (32.2) 4,871.2 of Wasted Draft Value Quinn 2(53) – Bust (370) 4(127) – Bust (45) 5(169) – Bust (23.8) 438.8 of Wasted Draft Value Yes, Millen has wasted 4,432.4 of draft value more than Quinn during their first four years. That's pretty amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I stand by my statement. In 2004 you wouldn't have considered Harrington or Rogers to be busts. You'd be telling people who were ready to move on from them to be patient and give them time. Just as you are with Patricia and BQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Nnivolcm said: I don't know how I could have come to that conclusion when anytime someone argued Patricia should have been replaced you called them illogical. Wanting to keep a coach you don't think will be good, that's illogical. I've argued that Stafford's injury derailed the 2019 season. That Patricia could be a good coach, or he might not be. That we really don't know yet, and that year 3 will tell us a lot. Sounds like the reasonable approach moving forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Nnivolcm said: I stand by my statement. In 2004 you wouldn't have considered Harrington or Rogers to be busts. You'd be telling people who were ready to move on from them to be patient and give them time. Just as you are with Patricia and BQ. You shouldn't stand by it. Neither Charles Rogers or Joey Harrington were considered 'good' after the 2004 season. Not even close. (In Rogers case, incredibly far off.) This one is a loss man... might want to leave it where it is. You tried; didn't work out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: I've argued that Stafford's injury derailed the 2019 season. That Patricia could be a good coach, or he might not be. That we really don't know yet, and that year 3 will tell us a lot. Sounds like the reasonable approach moving forward. In 2004: Injuries derailed Rogers' rookie season. Harrington struggled without his WR who was talented enough to be picked in the top 2 of the NFL draft. Harrington could be a good QB with that kind of talent at WR, or he might not be. We really don't know yet and another year will tell us a lot. Sounds like the TL approach in 2004. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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