NYRaider Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jraider91 said: Teams average 4.3ypc against them, that is worse than our rush defense YPC. Narrative doesn't match reality. The reason they don't get run on is that they have a top 3 offense in the league so they are always ahead meaning you have to throw to keep up. In 2019 with Winston at QB they were 4th in rush attempts, 1st in rushing yards allowed, 7th in rushing TD allowed, and 1st in YPC allowed. In 2020 they were 1st in rush attempts, 1st in rushing yards allowed, 1st in rushing TD allowed, and 1st in YPC allowed. This year they're 1st in rush attempts, 3rd in rushing yards allowed, 5th in rushing TD allowed, and 16th in YPC allowed. The other teams in the top 4, the Saints, Titans, and Ravens have all had middle of the pack scoring offenses. So high scoring offense doesn't correlate to elite run defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jraider91 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, NYRaider said: In 2019 with Winston at QB they were 4th in rush attempts, 1st in rushing yards allowed, 7th in rushing TD allowed, and 1st in YPC allowed. In 2020 they were 1st in rush attempts, 1st in rushing yards allowed, 1st in rushing TD allowed, and 1st in YPC allowed. This year they're 1st in rush attempts, 3rd in rushing yards allowed, 5th in rushing TD allowed, and 16th in YPC allowed. The other teams in the top 4, the Saints, Titans, and Ravens have all had middle of the pack scoring offenses. So high scoring offense doesn't correlate to elite run defense. So in their best ever year against the run, he played 5 games. You're convinced he is a unique game wrecker? The Saints also aren't in the top 4 for least rushing faced though, that is the Packers who yield 4.8ypc (worst in league) but can't be run on because their offense is so strong. Bengals are next yielding a middling 4.2ypc with again another high powered O. Colts/Chiefs/Cards/Cowboys follow next. All have average to below average YPC numbers but low rush attempts because of their offenses. Titans & Ravens are actually your only outliers, and Ravens have a historically banged up secondary and no Lamarr so they feel a bit of an odd case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jraider91 said: So in their best ever year against the run, he played 5 games. You're convinced he is a unique game wrecker? The Saints also aren't in the top 4 for least rushing faced though, that is the Packers who yield 4.8ypc (worst in league) but can't be run on because their offense is so strong. Bengals are next yielding a middling 4.2ypc with again another high powered O. Colts/Chiefs/Cards/Cowboys follow next. All have average to below average YPC numbers but low rush attempts because of their offenses. Titans & Ravens are actually your only outliers, and Ravens have a historically banged up secondary and no Lamarr so they feel a bit of an odd case. You really don't think Vea is that good? https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/sports/football/vita-vea-tampa-bay-buccaneeers.html Quote Vita Vea Is a Defensive Minimalist With Maximum N.F.L. Impact https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2021/11/29/frank-reich-buccaneers-jonathan-taylor-vita-vea/ Quote It's time to stop criticizing coaches for refusing to run against the Buccaneers https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2021/9/10/22666824/vita-vea-tampa-bay-bucs-defense-highlights Quote Vita Vea is the unsung hero of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jraider91 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, NYRaider said: You really don't think Vea is that good? https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/sports/football/vita-vea-tampa-bay-buccaneeers.html https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2021/11/29/frank-reich-buccaneers-jonathan-taylor-vita-vea/ https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2021/9/10/22666824/vita-vea-tampa-bay-bucs-defense-highlights I think he is exceptional at what he does, I think that to an elite team that is not a hugely important facet. Do you think the Packers are struggling with having the worst run D in the league by YPC? Do you think Vita Vea adds any wins to us this year? I don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Jraider91 said: I think he is exceptional at what he does, I think that to an elite team that is not a hugely important facet. Do you think the Packers are struggling with having the worst run D in the league by YPC? Do you think Vita Vea adds any wins to us this year? I don't. I think he definitely adds a ton of value to an elite team, especially in the playoffs when it's almost guaranteed that you're going to have to go on the road to cold weather cities and win the game by running the ball and stopping the run. They were able to completely shut down Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams in the NFC championship game last year. YPC is also a terrible metric to use when measuring how good a team is at stopping the run. The difference between 7 and 27 is 0.5 YPC. The amount of yards per game that they allow is the real indicator. Edited January 4, 2022 by NYRaider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Styrian Raider Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 hours ago, NYRaider said: Yeah between 15-20 is where I think Williams ends up going. As it stands none of the teams in the top 12 picks really need a #1 WR desperately. And it's not like Williams is some generational prospect with freak measurables. Pick for need is what we usually do. It's not like that every other franchise follow the same strategy. For example the Bengals supposed to pick Penei Sewell in the first round of last years draft and picked Ja'Marr Chase instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Styrian Raider said: Pick for need is what we usually do. It's not like that every other franchise follow the same strategy. For example the Bengals supposed to pick Penei Sewell in the first round of last years draft and picked Ja'Marr Chase instead. Joe Burrow's relationship with Chase also had a lot to do with them drafting him over Sewell. But when you really look around the league, it's very difficult to find dynamic, game changing weapons like Chase. The Chiefs were able to rebuild their entire offensive line in one off-season with a trade, two picks later in the draft, and trading away one pick. To acquire a player like Chase in free agency or the draft you're likely going to have to trade a ton of draft capital because no team is allowing a dynamic player to walk in free agency, they'll just tag them and trade them away. When we were good in 2016 our OL wasn't a bunch of guys that we drafted and developed it was mainly a group we acquired in free agency. We had Penn at LT who we signed to a mid-tier deal, Osemele/Hudson inside who we signed to big deals, Howard at RT who we signed to a small deal, and Jackson at RG who we drafted in the 3rd round. Which is the one thing that gives me hope we can make a pretty significant leap next season if we get more explosive at WR and address the OL. We already have 3 average to above average starts with Kolton, Good, and James. I wouldn't pencil in Leatherwood as a starter and would go get a guard and RT in free agency. Let Leatherwood compete for a starting spot but if he's still not ready having someone like Morgan Moses would ensure our OL is still at least average to above average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Styrian Raider Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, NYRaider said: I wouldn't pencil in Leatherwood as a starter and would go get a guard and RT in free agency. Let Leatherwood compete for a starting spot but if he's still not ready having someone like Morgan Moses would ensure our OL is still at least average to above average. Is it a valuable option to move Leatherwood to the left side again and let him compete with Simpson for LG, since he played that in college too? Then draft an real RT like Faalele and get some depth in FA. The OL would then look like: Miller - Simpson/Leatherwood - James - Good/FA or Draft Pick - Faalele(?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Styrian Raider said: Is it a valuable option to move Leatherwood to the left side again and let him compete with Simpson for LG, since he played that in college too? Then draft an real RT like Faalele and get some depth in FA. The OL would then look like: Miller - Simpson/Leatherwood - James - Good/FA or Draft Pick - Faalele(?) Leatherwood started at LT, LG, and RG at Alabama. With Leatherwood I don't think it's really where he plays, mentally he's just not prepared to start in the NFL. Almost all of his mistakes have been mental lapses, either stupid penalties or missed assignments. I'd go after a veteran to start at LG, bring back Good, and sign a veteran RT like Morgan Moses. Let Leatherwood compete for the starting spot at RG/RT, if he can beat either guy out he's a starter and Good provides quality depth at multiple spots, if he doesn't then Leatherwood provides depth and can play multiple spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jraider91 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 28 minutes ago, NYRaider said: I think he definitely adds a ton of value to an elite team, especially in the playoffs when it's almost guaranteed that you're going to have to go on the road to cold weather cities and win the game by running the ball and stopping the run. They were able to completely shut down Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams in the NFC championship game last year. YPC is also a terrible metric to use when measuring how good a team is at stopping the run. The difference between 7 and 27 is 0.5 YPC. The amount of yards per game that they allow is the real indicator. YPC is a good metric of how they deal with rushing plays, yards per game has external factors that don't relate to the run stopping ability of the defense. Vita Vea has far more direct influence on YPC than he does YPG. Do you think the Packers have a good run defense then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jraider91 said: YPC is a good metric of how they deal with rushing plays, yards per game has external factors that don't relate to the run stopping ability of the defense. Vita Vea has far more direct influence on YPC than he does YPG. Do you think the Packers have a good run defense then? The difference between the best run defense and worst run defense in terms of YPC is a yard. The difference in terms of yards per game is 60 yards per game. You also realize that just looking at the raw stats overall doesn't tell the whole story, right? On the season the Buccaneers have allowed 1,009 rushing yards/7 TD on 254 carries (3.9 YPC) to RB and 380 rushing yards/3 TD on 76 carries (5.4 ypc) to QB. On the year they've been dominant against RB's running the ball but QB's have gotten outside on runs at times and RB's have had great receiving games on check downs, that's on the LB's not Vea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heart of Oak Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 When it comes to the O-line Miller and James are guaranteed starters next year based on performance (maybe we need more UCLA linemen! :)) and Leatherwood will be a starter as the organisation cannot have another first round pick kicking about on the sideline. I would bring back Good and bring in another two OL from the draft or free agency. I want to see another two receivers as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jraider91 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, NYRaider said: The difference between the best run defense and worst run defense in terms of YPC is a yard. The difference in terms of yards per game is 60 yards per game. You also realize that just looking at the raw stats overall doesn't tell the whole story, right? On the season the Buccaneers have allowed 1,009 rushing yards/7 TD on 254 carries (3.9 YPC) to RB and 380 rushing yards/3 TD on 76 carries (5.4 ypc) to QB. On the year they've been dominant against RB's running the ball but QB's have gotten outside on runs at times and RB's have had great receiving games on check downs, that's on the LB's not Vea. You are making my point for me, the thing that Vea can most influence directly (YPC) doesn't translate to ypg as there are a lot of external factors to it. Anyone who tries to run on the Packers can do so pretty easily, but when Rodgers has you two TDs down it isn't a big factor. Vea is an excellent player, I would take him in the later 1st but stopping the run isn't top of my list to fix vs basically every other aspect of 2 phases football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jraider91 said: You are making my point for me, the thing that Vea can most influence directly (YPC) doesn't translate to ypg as there are a lot of external factors to it. Anyone who tries to run on the Packers can do so pretty easily, but when Rodgers has you two TDs down it isn't a big factor. Vea is an excellent player, I would take him in the later 1st but stopping the run isn't top of my list to fix vs basically every other aspect of 2 phases football. The Packers have come up short in the playoffs 10 consecutive seasons. The only team that has won the Super Bowl while being terrible defending the run in recent NFL History is the Chiefs. Because what is one of the most effective ways to stop a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers? By keeping the ball out of his hands. How do you do that? With extended drives running the ball and milking the clock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jraider91 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, NYRaider said: The Packers have come up short in the playoffs 10 consecutive seasons. The only team that has won the Super Bowl while being terrible defending the run in recent NFL History is the Chiefs. Because what is one of the most effective ways to stop a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers? By keeping the ball out of his hands. How do you do that? With extended drives running the ball and milking the clock. The Packers had the ball nearly 10 minutes more than the Bucs in that game. Nothing to do with the run game was why they lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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