Wide Receiver Hall of Fame Odds

[Mox]

Wide receiver is probably the most backed up position in terms of getting into the Hall of Fame.

Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson and others are all still waiting to get in. Larry Fitzgerald is a lock, and guys like Julio Jones/Antonio Brown seem to be semi-locks. What about the next crop of guys in or near their prime now? What are the odds of these guys getting in? What would they have to do to make it, or do they have no chance?

Michael Thomas

AJ Green

Mike Evans

Tyreek Hill

Davante Adams

De'Andre Hopkins

Stefon Diggs

[Tk3]

The 4 on the ballot (Smith, Holt, Wayne, Johnson) are all going to make it. Same with Fitzy, AB, and Julio. It's a backlog, and will take 10+ years to get all those guys in, but it will happen before the other wave retires

Of the next wave you mentioned, here's how I see it

• Michael Thomas - got off to a great start but has a lot of work to do. The 2 all-pros are nice, but he's an example to not enshrine someone before the age of 25. He needs at least a handful of big years ahead of him, and as of right now I don't see that happening. I'd say <50% chances
• AJ Green - almost no chance at all. Never an All-Pro, barely 10,000 yards, no real likelihood of building the resume. I'd say very near to 0% chance
• Mike Evans - No All-Pro, but has a ring. Also has 7 straight 1,000 yard seasons, and surely an 8th on the way. He's also a TD machine compared to most of his peers. He might lack the spectacular season, but if he continues on this pace for only a few more years he has a very good shot. If he has an All-Pro type season or two along the way. I'll say >50% chances, but far from a sure thing
• Tyreek Hill - probably the most likely HOF on this list. Already has several All-Pros, and barring injuries, should put up enough bulk stats to warrant it. I'd give him a 90% chance, barring injuries or falling off a ridiculous cliff
• Davante Adams - one of the more interesting cases, because he had the slowest start of the group, but has had the biggest acceleration. No guarantee, but looks poised to possibly get his 2nd straight All-Pro (Kupp seems a lock, then a few guys fighting for the other spots). At 29, he needs to maintain this peak for a few more years. Definitely over 50% odds, but not the lock that Reek seems to be
• DeAndre Hopkins - fairly similar story to Evans. His highs were a bit higher though. He has 3 All Pros, eclipsed 10k yards under 30 and is still in his prime. He's far from a lock, but a few more nice seasons into his early 30s should do the trick. Probably another guy who is near 90% odds, as long as he can maintain a few more years
• Stefon Diggs - Besides AJ Green, probably the other least likely to do it. Took a few years to get 1,000 yards, and has never broken 10 TDs. Does have an All Pro under his belt, but really needs to get into that top 3 conversation again, and maintain it for a few years. Definitely <50%, and needs another All Pro type year or two

OBJ has correctly left the conversation unless he has a massive rebound (I think Michael Thomas will enter the OBJ category soon).

 

It's too soon to add Cooper Kupp to this conversation. But he's about to have a (conservative guess) 140/1800/15 season and an All-Pro, on top of a couple decent seasons. If he puts together a strong 2022 campaign, he has to join the aforementioned list to keep tabs on

I hate having these conversations too early, but Justin Jefferson is about to have 3,000 yards in his first 2 seasons (possibly an All Pro, too). It's too soon to start projecting him as a hall of famer, but he's probably one more big season from entering the WR watchlist. All the other guys from the 18-21 class need to hit the All-Pro conversation before the Hall of Fame converation

[MrOaktown_56]

Like mentioned, eventually I think Adams, Hill, and Hopkins get in. Evans we'll see if he gets another ring or so.

I think on purely talent, AJ green is HOF level. I will be sad if he never gets in.

[lancerman]

Huge backlog. It’s impossible to know because a lot of these guys are going to watch younger guys eviscerate their stats with how passing inflation has gone and by the time they get a chance to be considered won’t look as good. 
 

Hill is the one I’m most confidant in with an All Decade a SB, and multiple All Pros. He’s also nowhere near a first ballot. 
 

AJ Green isn’t getting in. He only has 2 2nd Team All Pros to his name. Much better resumes have waited forever to get in. He had virtually no shot. 
 

Thomas is probably as borderline as you can get. I’ll lean probably because he has an OPOY. But it will take him awhile. 
 

Evan’s is no unless he beefs up his resume in a profound way the next 5 years. 
 

Adams is a no. He has one All Pro. 
 

Diggs is in the same spot. No.
 

Hopkins is to me on the opposite side of Thomas. He’s very borderline, but probably leaning no. 

Hill and Thomas are the only guys that I think have reasonable chances. This is a world where Harrison, Carter, Brown, TO. Hell Isaac Bruce was the premier WR on a SB winning team and all time unit and they had him wait 6 years after eligibility.

[Mox]

I'm gonna bump this now that the season has ended. This is how I'd rank their odds.

Good shot

DeAndre Hopkins-5x All Pro (3x1st), TD leader, and widely considered to be a top 5 guy for an extended period of time. The only thing holding him back right now is bulk stats. If he adds another 250 catches, 3,000 yards and 20 TDs (putting him 15-20th all time) he should be fine and considering he isn't even 30 those seem pretty attainable.

Decent shot

Tyreek Hill-4x All Pro (3x1st, 1 as ST), 1x Super Bowl, and considered a top weapon for a period of time. The case for Tyreek will likely not be bulk stats as he has a ways to go. It'll be his historical relevance, and how unique he is. He's the Randy Moss of the year. Not in terms of of good he is but in terms of how no one else can do the things that he does. He warps defenses simply by existing. If he can remain a Pro Bowl guy in Miami for a few years and gets himself another All Pro I'd say his odds are good. The NFL has always played high value on being special even if the bulk stats weren't totally there (Calvin, TD, Willis).

Davante Adams-2x All Pro, 1x TD leader, and a guy whose skillset probably lends him to having better longevity than others on this list. Arguably the NFL's premier route runner, and a guy the current era recognizes as the guy to emulate that from. Has numerous years considered as arguably the best WR in the league. Bulk stats are going to make his case though. If he can average 80-1000-7 the next four years he'd be sitting at ~1,000 catches, ~12,000 yards and ~100 TDs (putting him top 10 All Time). If one of those years is an All Pro, I think he gets in eventually.

Mike Evans-1x All Pro (2nd Team), Evans is the anti-Hill, he's been really good for a really long time but doesn't necessarily stand out. He's been considered elite for a good amount of time and he's rock solid statistically. He's younger than Davante and has essentially the same career numbers. If he can keep his 1,000 yard season streak going another three years and remain relevant after that I think he'll be in the Reggie Wayne tier of guys who could eventually get in.

Bad shot

Michael Thomas-2x All Pro, 2x Receptions Leader, 1x Yardage Leader, 1x OPOY. After his first four years he looked like a lock but that's why longevity matters. He started old, and has played seven games the last two seasons and now has completely fallen off the pace. He's already 29 and has less than 6,000 yards and 32 career TDs. He'll need to bounce back and get at least two more All Pro's and have an extensive career after that to get considered at this point.

Stefon Diggs-1x All Pro, 1x Receptions Leader, 1x Yardage Leader. Diggs wasn't considered elite until recently, and even then he's not really considered in the Adams/Hill tier. He'll need another four elite seasons and a decent post prime to even be considered. Him having one of the most memorable plays in NFL history will help his case a little though.

Nope

AJ Green-2x All Pro 2nd Team. Didn't accumulate enough numbers or accolades while he was at the top of his game. No chance.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Bullet Club