CW21's 2023 NFL Draft Thread (Initial QB Grades Up)

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

How do you factor in development time (moving from college to NFL and getting up to speed), maxed physical development (as they'll be nearly 25 and losing 2-3 years of additional physical development),etc.? How flexible are you on traits over production when it comes to older prospects?

Unless you believe there's going to be an exceptionally long time for him to become "NFL ready", age shouldn't really affect your QB evaluation.  You use age to help guess when the athleticism is going to disappear, and QBs aren't as reliant on athleticism like WRs or CBs are.  And situations like Jordan Love where you're sitting for 3+ years as first round QB aren't very common.  Other then Jordan Love, I don't remember the last time a first round QB sat for 2 years before getting the starting gig.  Guys like Carson Palmer and Patrick Mahomes effectively redshirt as rookies before being "handed" the starting QB spot.

[Daniel]

16 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Pretty much how I see it.  Barring an epic collapse of either one of them, I'd bet they're jockeying for QB1.  Like I mentioned in my initial post, I think QB3 is the first real position up for grabs.  There's probably 3-5 guys that I think you could put in that position right now, and I wouldn't argue too hard.

I could very well see any number of QBs hopping either one of them to get to QB1, but I agree in principle.  Those two are almost certainly first rounders.  How many of the others rise and fall, we'll see.  Plus, IIRC, a lot of the potential guys in next year's class still have some eligibility, so they might stay where they are, especially if there is a lot of great QB play and they don't want to bump down their draft stock.

[CWood21]

On 5/7/2022 at 8:19 PM, CWood21 said:

RB Watch List
Devon Achane [Texas A&M]
Rasheen Ali [Marshall]
Jalen Berger [Michigan State]
Tahj Brooks [Texas Tech]
Zach Charbonnet [UCLA]
Blake Corum [Michigan]
Tank Bigsby [Auburn]
Isaiah Davis [South Dakota State]
Travis Dye [USC]
Zach Evans [Ole Miss]
Tiyon Evans [Louisville]
Jahmyr Gibbs [Alabama]
Eric Gray [Oklahoma]
George Holani [Boise State]
Mohamed Ibrahim [Minnesota]
Montrell Johnson [Florida]
Jaylan Knighton [Miami (FL)]
Jase McClellan [Alabama]
DeWayne McBride [UAB]
Kenny McIntosh [Georgia]
Chez Mellusi [Wisconsin]
Kendall Milton [Georgia]
MarShawn Lloyd [South Carolina]
Jo'Quavious Marks [Mississippi State]
Lew Nichols [Central Michigan]
Bijan Robinson [Texas]
Chris Rodriguez [Kentucky]
EJ Smith [Stanford]
Lawrance Toafili [Florida State]
Brandon Thomas [Memphis]
Sean Tucker [Syracuse]
Chris Tyree [Notre Dame]
Xazavian Valladay [Arizona State]
Deuce Vaughn [Kansas State]
Miyan Williams [Ohio State]

This year's RB class already looks significantly better then any class since 2017.  Speaking of the '17 class, this could potentially rival that class.  Bijan Robinson is almost certainly going to be a first round pick when the 2023 draft rolls around, and should hear his name called in the first 15 picks.  The rest of the class will likely sort itself out as the season wears on, and there should be no shortage of guys who are going to be ranked high up on draftniks' boards.  Jahmyr Gibbs after two successful seasons at Georgia Tech is transferring to Alabama where he will likely compete with Trey Sanders and Jase McClellan to be the next great Crimson Tide RB.  After a pair of lackluster years at Michigan, Zach Charbonnet transferred to UCLA and exploded onto the scene and probably would have been a Day 2 pick had he declared for the '22 draft.  Instead, he opted to return to UCLA for another season to potentially enhance his stock.  Zach Evans is a former 5* prospect who ended up at TCU with a mess of recruitment, but opted to transfer to Ole Miss after Gary Patterson left the TCU program.  Kenny McIntosh and Kendall Milton will likely be competing for the starting RB gig in Athens, and the winner could end up seeing his name called early in the draft.  Overall, this RB class has some real promise and I expect it to look drastically different a year from now.

[Karnage84]

21 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Unless you believe there's going to be an exceptionally long time for him to become "NFL ready", age shouldn't really affect your QB evaluation.  You use age to help guess when the athleticism is going to disappear, and QBs aren't as reliant on athleticism like WRs or CBs are.  And situations like Jordan Love where you're sitting for 3+ years as first round QB aren't very common.  Other then Jordan Love, I don't remember the last time a first round QB sat for 2 years before getting the starting gig.  Guys like Carson Palmer and Patrick Mahomes effectively redshirt as rookies before being "handed" the starting QB spot.

I don't know if the NFL does follow this same logic. There's going to be exceptions to the rule but it does seem like teams will value a younger player. 

Since 2010, there's been 40 QB's drafted in the 1st round. The average age of these QB's is 22.65 (22.49 without Weeden).

Guys that are age 23.5+ (in order of age) as of September 1st of their draft year

1. Brandon Weeden (28.90), 22nd overall in 2012
2. Kenny Pickett (24.25), 20th overall in 2022
3. Ryan Tannehill (24.12), 8th overall in 2012
4. Joe Burrow (23.74), 1st overall in 2020
5. Carson Wentz (23.69), 2nd overall in 2016
6. Christian Ponder (23.53), 12th overall in 2011

So we only have 6 guys in 13 years who have been drafted in round 1 who are 23.5 or older. 

For the 2023 class, the average (37 prospects in) is 23.49. It's not to say that these guys won't go in round 1 and have long careers but it does feel like it's a bit of an uphill battle barring great physical skillsets, production, etc. 

1. Phil Jurkovec (23.84)
2. Will Levis (24.20)
3. Jake Haener (24.48)
4. Brennan Armstrong (23.89)
5. Hendon Hooker (25.65)
6. Sam Hartman (24.11)
7. Spencer Petras (23.80)
8. Jaren Hall (25.46)
9. Taulia Tagovailoa (25.52)
10. Bo Nix (23.53)
11. Malik Cunningham (24.92)
12. Hank Bachmeier (24.15)
13. Spencer Sanders (23.73)
14. Tanner Morgan (24.39)
15. JT Daniels (23.59)
16. Devin Leary (23.99)
17. Frank Harris (24.45)
18. Clayton Tune (24.46)

[Mox]

What's the best case scenario for J.T. Daniels?

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I don't know if the NFL does follow this same logic. There's going to be exceptions to the rule but it does seem like teams will value a younger player. 

Since 2010, there's been 40 QB's drafted in the 1st round. The average age of these QB's is 22.65 (22.49 without Weeden).

Guys that are age 23.5+ (in order of age) as of September 1st of their draft year

1. Brandon Weeden (28.90), 22nd overall in 2012
2. Kenny Pickett (24.25), 20th overall in 2022
3. Ryan Tannehill (24.12), 8th overall in 2012
4. Joe Burrow (23.74), 1st overall in 2020
5. Carson Wentz (23.69), 2nd overall in 2016
6. Christian Ponder (23.53), 12th overall in 2011

So we only have 6 guys in 13 years who have been drafted in round 1 who are 23.5 or older. 

For the 2023 class, the average (37 prospects in) is 23.49. It's not to say that these guys won't go in round 1 and have long careers but it does feel like it's a bit of an uphill battle barring great physical skillsets, production, etc. 

I think it also needs to be mentioned that we're also dealing with the unique situation where most of these players were given an extra year of eligibility because of COVID rules.  But at the end of the day, we're probably talking about maybe 2 or 3 at most being discussed as an early draft pick.  On the list of older prospects, how many of them do you actually see vying for having a FRP being used on them?

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, Bullet Club said:

What's the best case scenario for J.T. Daniels?

Maybe a high-end backup.  I think he could end up having a strong year at West Virginia this year, but he's played in more games in his freshman year then the next 3 seasons combined.  It's hard to get people to feel highly of you when you're not playing.

[MikeT14]

1 hour ago, Bullet Club said:

What's the best case scenario for J.T. Daniels?

I'd think something along what we saw with Minshew, Webb and Eason. Transfer in and have one excellent year before going off to the draft and hoping someone drafts you in the middle rounds to develop as a high end back up. It's going to be quite difficult at WVU though. 

[Karnage84]

43 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I'd think something along what we saw with Minshew, Webb and Eason. Transfer in and have one excellent year before going off to the draft and hoping someone drafts you in the middle rounds to develop as a high end back up. It's going to be quite difficult at WVU though. 

This is my thinking as well.

[Karnage84]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I think it also needs to be mentioned that we're also dealing with the unique situation where most of these players were given an extra year of eligibility because of COVID rules.  But at the end of the day, we're probably talking about maybe 2 or 3 at most being discussed as an early draft pick.  On the list of older prospects, how many of them do you actually see vying for having a FRP being used on them?

That's definitely something to remember (thanks for pointing that out, I did kind of forget to factor that in). However, I still think we'd be looking at the exception here. I'm just playing around a bit in my worksheet to see what kind of things pop out (and might be interesting things to discuss). Whether any of this means anything will be interesting but here goes. 

I'm trying to look at efficiency metrics as opposed to full on yards, TD's, etc. since there will be guys who haven't had as much playing time, maybe played well until an injury occurred, etc. 

TD:INT

• Hendon Hooker - 10.3
• Zach Gibson (Akron) - 10.0
• Grayson McCall - 9.0
• Dequan Finn (Toledo) - 9.0
• CJ Stroud - 7.3
• Bryce Young - 6.7

TDA (Touchdowns per Attempt) - Percentage of attempts that are TD's

• Grayson McCall - 11.2%
• Hendon Hooker - 10.3%
• CJ Stroud - 10.0%
• Anthony Richardson - 9.4%
• Dillon Gabriel - 8.8%
• Bryce Young - 8.6%
• Tanner Mordecai (SMU) - 8.6%

INTA (Interceptions per Attempt) Percentage of attempts that are INT's

• Zach Gibson (Akron) - 0.6%
• Dequan Finn (Toledo) - 0.8%
• Bo Nix - 0.9%
• Hendon Hooker - 1.0%
• Bryce Young - 1.3%
• CJ Stroud 1.4%

 

• Anthony Richardson - 7.8%
• Michael Penix (Washington) - 4.3%
• Phil Jurkovec - 4.2%
• Graham Mertz - 3.9%
• Will Levis - 3.7%
• Tanner Morgan - 3.6%

 

NET (I don't know what to call it: TDA - INTA)

• Grayson McCall - 10.0%
• Hendon Hooker - 9.3%
• CJ Stroud - 8.6%
• Bryce Young - 7.3%
• Devin Leary (NC St) - 7.0%

 

• Michael Penix - -1.9%
• Tommy Devito - -1.9%
• Graham Mertz - -0.4%
• DJ Uiagalelei - -0.3%
• Jayden Daniels - 0.0%
• Spencer Petras - 0.3%
• Tanner Morgan - 0.4%

 

Edited May 12, 2022 by Karnage84

[CWood21]

23 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

I'd think something along what we saw with Minshew, Webb and Eason. Transfer in and have one excellent year before going off to the draft and hoping someone drafts you in the middle rounds to develop as a high end back up. It's going to be quite difficult at WVU though. 

Is it though?  Jarret Doege wasn't very good last year, and there's a ton of change going on inside the Big 12 right now.  At this point, Baylor is probably the overwhelming favorite, but Oklahoma is still Oklahoma even if Brent Venables is the new HC.  Oklahoma State isn't going anywhere, and Texas has a ton of talent so we will see if Sarkisian can turn things around.  I'd argue that Daniels is better then Doege, so as long as he can stay healthy I'd anticipate him playing well.

[CWood21]

22 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

That's definitely something to remember (thanks for pointing that out, I did kind of forget to factor that in). However, I still think we'd be looking at the exception here. I'm just playing around a bit in my worksheet to see what kind of things pop out (and might be interesting things to discuss). Whether any of this means anything will be interesting but here goes. 

I'm trying to look at efficiency metrics as opposed to full on yards, TD's, etc. since there will be guys who haven't had as much playing time, maybe played well until an injury occurred, etc. 

Metrics like that might help locate guys like Davis Mills who struggled with injuries as players who are undervalued, but those metrics largely inflate guys who play in offensive systems that mitigate the amount of reads a QB is making.  I'll be interested to see if there's any real value of those though.

[MikeT14]

18 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Is it though?  Jarret Doege wasn't very good last year, and there's a ton of change going on inside the Big 12 right now.  At this point, Baylor is probably the overwhelming favorite, but Oklahoma is still Oklahoma even if Brent Venables is the new HC.  Oklahoma State isn't going anywhere, and Texas has a ton of talent so we will see if Sarkisian can turn things around.  I'd argue that Daniels is better then Doege, so as long as he can stay healthy I'd anticipate him playing well.

No counter from me, I agree wholeheartedly. It doesn't mean Daniels won't have his work cut out for him. Opener at Pitt, VT AT Lane Stadium, and then everything in the XII? It'll be tough. 

[Karnage84]

7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Metrics like that might help locate guys like Davis Mills who struggled with injuries as players who are undervalued, but those metrics largely inflate guys who play in offensive systems that mitigate the amount of reads a QB is making.  I'll be interested to see if there's any real value of those though.

That is one of the reasons I chose this method as opposed to pure production. Also factor in guys with limited playing time, etc. This is not an exact science by any means. It's just to help sort out nearly 100 guys and see what jumps up to warrant a closer look. 

Anthony Richardson's more than double than anyone else INT per attempt rate is alarming. He could work on things through the off-season, get that way down in 2022 and it's a non-factor as a potential 2023 draft candidate. It also could stay somewhat consistent and be a major red flag for him as a QB. 

[CWood21]

On 5/7/2022 at 8:19 PM, CWood21 said:

Wide Receiver Watch List
Jordan Addison [USC]
Ronnie Bell [Michigan]
Kayshon Boutte [LSU]
Jermaine Burton [Alabama]
Jacob Cowing [UTEP]
Jalen Cropper [Fresno State]
Nathanial Dell [Houston]
Desmond Demas [Texas A&M]
Dontay Demus Jr. [Maryland]
Josh Downs [North Carolina]
Zay Flowers [Boston College]
Zakhari Frankin [UTSA]
Arik Gilbert [Georgia]
Jadon Haselwood [Arkansas]
Xavier Hutchinson [Iowa State]
Rakim Jarrett [Maryland]
Quentin Johnson [TCU]
Marvin Mims [Oklahoma]
Jonathan Mingo [Ole Miss]
Isaiah Neyor [Texas]
Jayden Reed [Michigan State]
Ainias Smith [Texas A&M]
Jaxson Smith-Njigba [Ohio State]
Parker Washington [Penn State]

There's some real legitimate talent in this year's WR class.  The top WR off the board is likely to come down to Jordan Addison, Kayshon Boutte, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba.  Jordan Addison is probably the most well-known WR prospect as he won the Biletnikoff award this year, and his much publicized transfer from Pittsburgh to USC.  Kayshon Boutte might be the least known of the 3 since he missed the second half of the season because of an ankle injury, but he was on pace for an 82 reception, 1100 receiving yards, and 20 TD reception season.  Jaxson Smith-Njigba might be the best of the Buckeye WRs last year, and that's saying something as Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave went inside the top 12 picks of the 2022 NFL Draft.  I wouldn't say any of them are physically imposing, but they're all going to be good at the next level.  Beyond those three, there's a myriad of wide receivers that are likely going to hear their names called and given the extreme value of wide receivers this offseason probably hear their names called early.