MOSteelers56 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 1 minute ago, warfelg said: Stat of the interesting at the quarter pole: Najee yards before contact 0.74 Jaylen yards before contact 2.21 What do you make of that? Warren going against lighter boxes, or hitting the right hole consistently? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said: What do you make of that? Warren going against lighter boxes, or hitting the right hole consistently? Lighter boxes. Najee sees 8 man box 60+%, Warren on ~15% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said: That's a heck of a writeup @Dcash4 I'm impressed by Kenny too. And as @warfelgstated, he doesn't need a cannon of an arm to throw deep balls. I trust him to get it figured out. I just want him to be able to hit 10-20 yard passes consistently, and I think he's well on his way to that. He kind of reminds me of pre-injury Chad Pennington. Heck look at Brees l, Wilson, both Mannings, Brady. They can get it there well enough without having a cannon. Kenny’s deep ball success is going to come by throwing past the WR and letting his guy run under it, not ripping it 49 yards to a spot like Allen. He’ll look at Mahomes deep balls to Hill. So many floaters that have Hill a chance to make a play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Also that Allen 98 yard TD early in the game: Pull up take from 3 (?) weeks ago. Exact same play call. Ended in a pick. Difference? Edmonds did what Minkah did and Minkah was in Norwoods spot. Norwood bit on the Sluggo and Minkah didn’t. Edmunds and Minkah got to the same pressure amount on the QB. Good picture on how play call is the same and the execution from 2 different players makes the difference between a turnover and a touchdown. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, warfelg said: Also that Allen 98 yard TD early in the game: Pull up take from 3 (?) weeks ago. Exact same play call. Ended in a pick. Difference? Edmonds did what Minkah did and Minkah was in Norwoods spot. Norwood bit on the Sluggo and Minkah didn’t. Edmunds and Minkah got to the same pressure amount on the QB. Good picture on how play call is the same and the execution from 2 different players makes the difference between a turnover and a touchdown. That's why I never wanted to get rid of Edmunds. He might not get a lot of INTs but he knows what to do out there. If he makes a mistake he's also usually athletic enough to cover for it too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 The deep ball isn't what concerns me for Kenny, that intermediate area is. Trajectory shouldn't be a factor 10-15 horizontally or 15-20 vertically, as it should just be a straight line. When you hear people talk about "NFL throws" that's where they are. That's why there were questions about Kenny's arm strength. It's not about how far he could throw it. Brees, both Mannings, Tom, Wilson, Ben -- all had rockets in the intermediate area. Payton lost it late, but they had the arm to throw it all over the field. Kenny doesn't have that ability, so he needs to be super timely and pin point accurate. Balls in between the two areas I listed above need to be on ropes to take advantage of weak areas with closing windows. The two balls that I am questioning were 19 (near hash) and 17 yards (far hash). Those are tough areas to say that wind played a role at the NFL level, especially considering the spin that Kenny creates on the ball to help it cut through. I don't care if he can't bomb it out like the aliens of Mahomes, Allen, or Lamar. I do worry though that he can't consistently make throws you need to in the NFL. That interception is troublesome, but doesn't define who he is/will be. It's just something to monitor going forward, especially late in the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 30 air yard throws not effected by 15-25 mph winds? Straight line 30 yard throws are definitely effected by wind. According to these articles 10 mph winds by 1.8% in comp% and 0.7% in 5-10mph. https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-the-factors-week-14-2017 https://towardsdatascience.com/football-weather-diving-into-the-effects-of-weather-on-nfl-qb-performance-f0edb420623d Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, warfelg said: Pull up take from 3 (?) weeks ago. Exact same play call. Ended in a pick. Difference? Edmonds did what Minkah did and Minkah was in Norwoods spot. Norwood bit on the Sluggo and Minkah didn’t. Edmunds and Minkah got to the same pressure amount on the QB Not sure I know which play you are talking about in comparison. Went back and watch all of Minkah's picks and none were the same. - Pick against the Bengals, straight C2 with Edmunds and Minkah deep. Immediate depth on the snap. - Pick against the Pats, straight C2, Edmunds and Minkah deep. Immediate depth on the snap. - Pick against the Jets, Minkah in man - Bills TD, Maulet and Norwood feet at 10, immediately horizontal at the snap. Looks like they were trying to stay under the receivers at the sticks, but were just wrong. Maybe it's just Norwood being bad, But that still leaves questions about the plan in general. It's a pass situation with a god at QB and you put your best coverage guy in as a spy to stop a QB run.....why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: Maybe it's just Norwood being bad, But that still leaves questions about the plan in general. It's a pass situation with a god at QB and you put your best coverage guy in as a spy to stop a QB run.....why? This is tough to argue with. I'm sure injuries played into it, but Minkah should have been in coverage. It could have just been that Allen is really good and whenever we tried to trick him, he wasn't fooled. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said: This is tough to argue with. I'm sure injuries played into it, but Minkah should have been in coverage. It could have just been that Allen is really good and whenever we tried to trick him, he wasn't fooled. Norwood isn’t a blitzer or box safety at all. If you had him blitz it wouldn’t have worked. And if you think about it, trying to send a guy you expect in coverage should have been a good early test. If Norwood didn’t get flat and break on the first cut, I don’t think that’s a touchdown. And given that play call happened in drive 1, it’s likely something they worked on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, warfelg said: 30 air yard throws not effected by 15-25 mph winds? Straight line 30 yard throws are definitely effected by wind. According to these articles 10 mph winds by 1.8% in comp% and 0.7% in 5-10mph. https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-the-factors-week-14-2017 https://towardsdatascience.com/football-weather-diving-into-the-effects-of-weather-on-nfl-qb-performance-f0edb420623d I never said that wind won't affect throws at all. But velocity and spin cut wind far with less trajectory. So if Kenny doesn't have the arm to put that ball on a rope then the effects he will see in that intermediate area are a lot higher than someone who can. Kenny has a high rate of spin, but a weaker velocity. That matters because it add trajectory. Those intermediate throws in tight windows are not are area I want to hear "yeah, but the wind knocked down the trajectory" on. If weather is going to affect them that greatly, there MIGHT be reason for concern considering he plays outside in Pittsburgh. Those articles are great....but they are completely generalized to include all passes in all situation. I know deep ball accuracy will be affected to a greater amount (more trajectory, less velocity), but short area/intermediate shouldn't be (less trajectory, more velocity). So if it says that completion percentage is affected at less than 2% for YPC is .3 in heavy winds -- where are the numbers changing? My guess is deep balls that involve more touch. 24 minutes ago, warfelg said: Not sure what we are doing here. You said there is an example of the same thing and I went searching but couldn't find it. If I am wrong, show me. 14 minutes ago, warfelg said: Norwood isn’t a blitzer or box safety at all. If you had him blitz it wouldn’t have worked. And if you think about it, trying to send a guy you expect in coverage should have been a good early test. If Norwood didn’t get flat and break on the first cut, I don’t think that’s a touchdown. And given that play call happened in drive 1, it’s likely something they worked on. 1) Minkah isn't a box safety or a blitzer either. And he also doesn't blitz here. Just spying Allen. 2) Norwood doesn't break on the first cut, because there was no first cut. There isn't even a hesitation from Davis. This was a straight post. I will await another eye rolling gif. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Wasn't the bomb TD to Davis that Norwood bit on a sluggo? I think that's what they said on the broadcast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 1 minute ago, MOSteelers56 said: Wasn't the bomb TD to Davis that Norwood bit on a sluggo? I think that's what they said on the broadcast. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/single/route/buffalo-bills/2022/week/gabe-davis/DAV329675 Poorly run but yes. That’s the charting of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 1 minute ago, MOSteelers56 said: Wasn't the bomb TD to Davis that Norwood bit on a sluggo? I think that's what they said on the broadcast. Ive rewatched the play about 100 times now. No. There is no hesitation at all. It's a straight post. That's why I don't understand what the call is here. Norwood and Maulet both break horizontal at the snap. There is move by Davis that would force him to jump anything. The immediate move put him out of place to stay on top of Davis. We were looking for something in-cutting and when Norwood realized he was going deep it was way to late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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