LionArkie Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 (edited) 16 hours ago, cp0k2 said: I'd rather not have a bell cow, I'd prefer the way modern NFL offenses are going. It's easy to find a bigger back to run between the tackles and get the tough yards ala Jamaal Williams via free agency or the later rounds of the draft. Then have a versatile back like Swift/Gibbs to get 12 touches a game from the backfield/slot/wherever and make some plays. And I certainly don't want to invest a first round pick on the position. And while Swift is under contract next season, he can't be relied upon and anything he gives is a bonus at this point; I'm not resigning him. As far as Robinson having Barkley level talent, I don't think he's on that level. But I also wouldn't want that at RB due to the high draft cost to get them and I see it as putting all your eggs in one basket. Jonathan Taylor is hurt and the Colts offense went to garbage. Saquon is healthy this year and balling out but the previous few years he's been hurt and the Giants offense turned to garbage. Spend your high picks on premium positions, not RBs. 16 hours ago, cp0k2 said: The 49ers are in a Super Bowl window and have one of the most talented rosters and best defenses in the league, that's why they made the trade. And they also didn't give up a first round pick to do it. Detroit is nowhere near competing for the division, let alone the Super Bowl. The roster needs to be built up before quite a bit, especially on defense, before a luxury like a first round running back should even ne considered. Pretty much this for me. When the rest of the team is complete (as pointed out in cpOk2's SF example), sure go after your bell cow with a first. I'd value a 1st round corner, 1st round DT, 1st Round Edge, 1st Round IOL, 1st round qb, 1st round WR, 1st round LB all higher than a 1st round RB at this point of our rebuild. If I have a 1,000 yard rusher who can't get on the field, because the defense allows 19 play drives then no thanks. When our defense starts resembling more of an NFL defense and less of a Junior Varsity squad, then I'd be more open to it. Edited November 10, 2022 by LionArkie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, LionArkie said: Pretty much this for me. When the rest of the team is complete (as pointed out in cpOk2's SF example), sure go after your bell cow with a first. I'd value a 1st round corner, 1st round DT, 1st Round Edge, 1st Round IOL, 1st round qb, 1st round WR, 1st round LB all higher than a 1st round RB at this point of our rebuild. If I have a 1,000 yard rusher who can't get on the field, because the defense allows 19 play drives then no thanks. When our defense starts resembling more of an NFL defense and less of a Junior Varsity squad, then I'd be more open to it. We don't really have that many open starting positions on the defense if you really break things down. DE - Hutchinson DT - Open DT- McNeill DE - Paschal ILB - Rodriguez ILB - Open CB - Okudah SCB - Open CB - Open FS - Walker SS - Joseph It doesn't mean that any of these guys can't be upgraded if a better player comes along or if a scheme change presents itself. We're also not going to be filling all of those spots with rookies. We know that Holmes seems to place less of an emphasis on LB, so we really are only going to look at either DT or CB barring a top level talent at another position falling into our lap. If we're sitting at 5, we potentially could see all three of the big QB's go before us (Stroud, Young, Levis) leaving guys like Will Anderson and Jalen Carter as our first 1st round pick. That'd be an instant upgrade already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LionArkie Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: We don't really have that many open starting positions on the defense if you really break things down. DE - Hutchinson DT - Open DT- McNeill DE - Paschal ILB - Rodriguez ILB - Open CB - Okudah SCB - Open CB - Open FS - Walker SS - Joseph It doesn't mean that any of these guys can't be upgraded if a better player comes along or if a scheme change presents itself. We're also not going to be filling all of those spots with rookies. We know that Holmes seems to place less of an emphasis on LB, so we really are only going to look at either DT or CB barring a top level talent at another position falling into our lap. If we're sitting at 5, we potentially could see all three of the big QB's go before us (Stroud, Young, Levis) leaving guys like Will Anderson and Jalen Carter as our first 1st round pick. That'd be an instant upgrade already. Doesn't change the fact that I would prefer all those positions over a first round rb. Even a rotation of studs I'd prefer at this point over a 1st round rb. AND I am a defense/running game guy. I also think the graphic for the yardage/draft round isn't a very good analytic. From the running back position I want ypc. If I give a bell cow 30 carries for 2.5 ypc is that effective in today's NFL? I would rather have explosive ypc. And with ypc being more valuable to me I would present this. Or how about RB success rate by round? https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/12/30/16831878/is-there-a-best-round-to-draft-a-running-back-rushing-success-rate-ypc-explosive I'm not overly sold on the 1000 yard for a rb in a 18 game season argument. Edited November 10, 2022 by LionArkie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Want A Title Posted November 10, 2022 Author Share Posted November 10, 2022 3 hours ago, Karnage84 said: We don't really have that many open starting positions on the defense if you really break things down. DE - Hutchinson DT - Open DT- McNeill DE - Paschal ILB - Rodriguez ILB - Open CB - Okudah SCB - Open CB - Open FS - Walker SS - Joseph It doesn't mean that any of these guys can't be upgraded if a better player comes along or if a scheme change presents itself. We're also not going to be filling all of those spots with rookies. We know that Holmes seems to place less of an emphasis on LB, so we really are only going to look at either DT or CB barring a top level talent at another position falling into our lap. If we're sitting at 5, we potentially could see all three of the big QB's go before us (Stroud, Young, Levis) leaving guys like Will Anderson and Jalen Carter as our first 1st round pick. That'd be an instant upgrade already. The draft order right now: Houston, Carolina, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Detroit Carolina has a definite need at QB. Houston might choose to stick with Davis Mills for another year because they are getting solid play from him despite the fact he doesn't have a whole lot of talent around him. Pittsburgh just took Kenny Pickett so they don't need a QB. Las Vegas still has Derrick Carr so they would probably be interested in a developmental QB. CJ Stroud might have the fewest questions with regard to his draft evaluations but that doesn't mean he will be taken #1 or even be the first QB drafted. Current draft evaluations of WIll Levis remind me of Justin Hebert. Carolina might prefer his style of play to CJ Stroud. They might be turned off by Bryce Young's size. It is tough to say right now. As far as DT goes, Jalen Carter is the clear #1 prospect. Byran Bresee is a very good DT prospect but has an injury that may affect his medical evaluations. One DT prospect not being discussed: Siaki Ika. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 On 11/10/2022 at 11:24 AM, Just Want A Title said: The draft order right now: Houston, Carolina, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Detroit Carolina has a definite need at QB. Houston might choose to stick with Davis Mills for another year because they are getting solid play from him despite the fact he doesn't have a whole lot of talent around him. Pittsburgh just took Kenny Pickett so they don't need a QB. Las Vegas still has Derrick Carr so they would probably be interested in a developmental QB. CJ Stroud might have the fewest questions with regard to his draft evaluations but that doesn't mean he will be taken #1 or even be the first QB drafted. Current draft evaluations of WIll Levis remind me of Justin Hebert. Carolina might prefer his style of play to CJ Stroud. They might be turned off by Bryce Young's size. It is tough to say right now. As far as DT goes, Jalen Carter is the clear #1 prospect. Byran Bresee is a very good DT prospect but has an injury that may affect his medical evaluations. One DT prospect not being discussed: Siaki Ika. According to Tankathon right now, the draft order is as follows (bolded are QB needy teams) 1) Houston <<< Trade partner for QB needy team 2) Las Vegas <<< Trade partner for QB needy team 3) Pittsburgh <<<< Trade partner for QB needy team 4) Detroit - If we start to put some things together, we could be sitting between 4-7 5) Carolina - A very likely trade candidate for Houston, LV or Pittsburgh. A new regime with an aggressive owner that will want to draft their QBOTF. 6) Philadelphia 7) Arizona 8 ) Jacksonville 9) Chicago 10) Green Bay - May not be sold on Jordan Love as heir apparent. I can't see Rodgers sticking around for this. He's already a gold jacket guy. 11) Detroit via Rams 12) Seattle via Denver 13) Houston via Cleveland 14) Indianapolis - Unless Jeff Saturday blows the Dan Campbell hire out of the water, I suspect that Indy will be making its way up into the top 10. 15) Atlanta 16) Washington 17) Cinci 18) New England 19) Tampa Bay - Tompa Bay is probably going to be looking for their QBOTF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 On 11/10/2022 at 7:58 AM, LionArkie said: Doesn't change the fact that I would prefer all those positions over a first round rb. Even a rotation of studs I'd prefer at this point over a 1st round rb. AND I am a defense/running game guy. I also think the graphic for the yardage/draft round isn't a very good analytic. From the running back position I want ypc. If I give a bell cow 30 carries for 2.5 ypc is that effective in today's NFL? I would rather have explosive ypc. And with ypc being more valuable to me I would present this. Or how about RB success rate by round? https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/12/30/16831878/is-there-a-best-round-to-draft-a-running-back-rushing-success-rate-ypc-explosive I'm not overly sold on the 1000 yard for a rb in a 18 game season argument. 1000 rushing yards over 17 games = 59 yards per game 59 yards per game/20 rush attempts = 2.95 yards per attempt (ideal target is 4.0) A top 10 offense will have 65 snaps per game on average. Assuming a 50/50 play call, you're looking at 32.5 rushing and 32.5 passing per game. You can absolutely have a bellcow run for 20 snaps, leaving 12 for your RB2/RB3 and sprinkle in 5-6 passing attempts for high efficiency throws. I'm not disputing your numbers but my chart spoke of longevity - getting more out of that player over 5 years than from a collection of players over the same time period. A single investment in a 1st round RB as opposed to likely drafting 2-3 guys to match the production. A player that you can build an offense around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LionArkie Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Karnage84 said: 1000 rushing yards over 17 games = 59 yards per game 59 yards per game/20 rush attempts = 2.95 yards per attempt (ideal target is 4.0) A top 10 offense will have 65 snaps per game on average. Assuming a 50/50 play call, you're looking at 32.5 rushing and 32.5 passing per game. You can absolutely have a bellcow run for 20 snaps, leaving 12 for your RB2/RB3 and sprinkle in 5-6 passing attempts for high efficiency throws. I'm not disputing your numbers but my chart spoke of longevity - getting more out of that player over 5 years than from a collection of players over the same time period. A single investment in a 1st round RB as opposed to likely drafting 2-3 guys to match the production. A player that you can build an offense around. First 3 games of the season swift was healthy. We were a top 3 offense. We were 1-2. I’ll still take the other players on defense and the other offensive positional players in the first. I’d rather have a first round dt and a second round rb than the other way around. With the injury rate for rb, no thanks in the top 20 let alone first round. i dont think we are going to agree on this one. Edited November 11, 2022 by LionArkie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lions017 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 No to Bijan. Will he be great? Quite possibly. But I don't think you need a top RB to win in the league. You can get someone to produce in say round three. The value just isn't there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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