Rainmaker90 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 https://x.com/jamesnicholsnhl/status/1792871051581411703?s=46&t=y7j1V1GMJY1RCwBXO9Ebjw cmon James! Don’t be like Weeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 9 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said: https://x.com/jamesnicholsnhl/status/1792871051581411703?s=46&t=y7j1V1GMJY1RCwBXO9Ebjw cmon James! Don’t be like Weeks lol nothing . These guys are unreal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 2 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said: lol nothing . These guys are unreal Probably about bratts engagement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Interviewed Warsofsky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaidersAreOne Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Keefe it is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 4 year deal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 30 minutes ago, Forge said: 4 year deal Love it. Great great hire ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 3 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said: Love it. Great great hire ! Yeah, I'm pretty happy with it. Seems like a good dude too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaidersAreOne Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Now trade for Markstrom! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 (edited) 2 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said: Now trade for Markstrom! I was just thinking about goalies ( I hope it’s not Markstrom 🤐) can someone smarten me up … Why wouldn’t teams trade like pick 10 for a very good to elite goalie? And why is goalie pay on the lower end with teams mostly reluctant to. im comparing them to pitchers because i think they’re similar. Pitchers get paid as much as position players. They play much less than positional players , and goalies. It is not as common volatile as goalie, but I’m also talking about the above average/elite guys with a history of success. It’s just odd to me. Like a lot of people say they wouldn’t trade pick 10 for a goalie like Saros . In baseball a team that’s ready to contend would easily trade pick 10 in their draft for an elite SP. hell, I’d argue they’d trade pick 10 for a #2-3 guy. I also understand that there’s no cap in baseball, but I’d also argue that with effect position players more so. Main point: having an elite goalie can win you series, Cups almost on their own, in yet nobody would want to trade top picks for one and the pay is lower. It can’t all be about volatility of the position Edited May 23 by Rainmaker90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 9 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said: I was just thinking about goalies ( I hope it’s not Markstrom 🤐) can someone smarten me up … Markstrom still seems most likely to me 10 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said: Why wouldn’t teams trade like pick 10 for a very good to elite goalie? And why is goalie pay on the lower end with teams mostly reluctant to. im comparing them to pitchers because i think they’re similar. Pitchers get paid as much as position players. They play much less than positional players , and goalies. It is not as common volatile as goalie, but I’m also talking about the above average/elite guys with a history of success. It’s just odd to me. Like a lot of people say they wouldn’t trade pick 10 for a goalie like Saros . In baseball a team that’s ready to contend would easily trade pick 10 in their draft for an elite SP. hell, I’d argue they’d trade pick 10 for a #2-3 guy. I also understand that there’s no cap in baseball, but I’d also argue that with effect position players more so. Main point: having an elite goalie can win you series, Cups almost on their own, in yet nobody would want to trade top picks for one and the pay is lower. It can’t all be about volatility of the position It really is about the volatility, I think. Well, that and the money / term of a contract. Especially for analytically driven teams. Goalies are largely considered voodoo. Elite goalies seldom get moved and the distance between "very good" and "average" goalie is slimmer than you'd think. Overall, the consistency is simply not there for the most part. Look at Oettinger and Saros this year. Both widely considered top 8 goalies in the league. They were 30 and 32nd this season in save percentage for goalies with at least 20 games. Oettinger saved 2 goals above expected per moneypuck (33rd for goalies with at least 20 games) and Saros was third on his own team and saved fewer shots than expected (-3), 46th in the league for goalies with 20 games. It's a little better if you use natural stat trick; Oettinger saved 10 goals more than expected and Saros saved exactly as many goals as expected. Sorokin had a mostly good year, but by the end was getting benched for Varlamov in the playoffs. I think most teams are searching for a guy that can get hot and play well, not necessarily the best guy at the position. ESPN has a thing every year where the NHL (execs, players, etc) rank the top 10 at each position. One goalie in the top 10 they listed has a ring (Vasi). And it's not like the list was comprised of a bunch of young guys - there were two who were under 28 years old (Oettinger and Swayman). Secondary problem with Saros, for example, is the contract. He's going to need an extension and you're not giving up #10 for a rental. But he's 5'11, 180 pounds and overly reliant on athleticism. His extension starts in his 30s. I'd wager that most analytics departments aren't wanting to invest in that with giving up assets. Humorously, teams may be more willing to give up that #10 pick for Askarov than they would be Saros. Analytics departments do not love the idea of paying goalies for 7-8 years and historically, those deals have aged very poorly. Its one of the reasons that I think Markstrom is the devils guy and why I think they'll kick the tires on Gustavsson. I'm not sure how in they are going to be on Ullmark (though he could be very cheap if Boston wants to move him because of his NTC). Kevan Woodley, who does an insane amount of work with goalies (he's got some awesome stuff to look at if you get the chance) said during the year that Markstrom was his preferred target for the devils over Saros because of the upcoming contract. This is slightly dated, but this is one of the things that consistently drives goalie values down: There are goalies I think would return pick. I'd give 10+ for Swayman at 26 years old as would most NHL execs, I think. That would be comparable to the Cory Schneider trade from a decade ago. The schneider trade, along with the Varlamov trade a year or two before that (Varlamov was 23 years old, returned pick 11 and a second rounder which is comparable to pick 9) are the two highest trade returns for goalies in the modern era as far as I am aware. I think 10 would be on the table for Saros if the Devils are okay with giving him the contract he wants, I just don't think that they will be. It's a very weird situation with goalies, that's for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 1 hour ago, Forge said: Markstrom still seems most likely to me It really is about the volatility, I think. Well, that and the money / term of a contract. Especially for analytically driven teams. Goalies are largely considered voodoo. Elite goalies seldom get moved and the distance between "very good" and "average" goalie is slimmer than you'd think. Overall, the consistency is simply not there for the most part. Look at Oettinger and Saros this year. Both widely considered top 8 goalies in the league. They were 30 and 32nd this season in save percentage for goalies with at least 20 games. Oettinger saved 2 goals above expected per moneypuck (33rd for goalies with at least 20 games) and Saros was third on his own team and saved fewer shots than expected (-3), 46th in the league for goalies with 20 games. It's a little better if you use natural stat trick; Oettinger saved 10 goals more than expected and Saros saved exactly as many goals as expected. Sorokin had a mostly good year, but by the end was getting benched for Varlamov in the playoffs. I think most teams are searching for a guy that can get hot and play well, not necessarily the best guy at the position. ESPN has a thing every year where the NHL (execs, players, etc) rank the top 10 at each position. One goalie in the top 10 they listed has a ring (Vasi). And it's not like the list was comprised of a bunch of young guys - there were two who were under 28 years old (Oettinger and Swayman). Secondary problem with Saros, for example, is the contract. He's going to need an extension and you're not giving up #10 for a rental. But he's 5'11, 180 pounds and overly reliant on athleticism. His extension starts in his 30s. I'd wager that most analytics departments aren't wanting to invest in that with giving up assets. Humorously, teams may be more willing to give up that #10 pick for Askarov than they would be Saros. Analytics departments do not love the idea of paying goalies for 7-8 years and historically, those deals have aged very poorly. Its one of the reasons that I think Markstrom is the devils guy and why I think they'll kick the tires on Gustavsson. I'm not sure how in they are going to be on Ullmark (though he could be very cheap if Boston wants to move him because of his NTC). Kevan Woodley, who does an insane amount of work with goalies (he's got some awesome stuff to look at if you get the chance) said during the year that Markstrom was his preferred target for the devils over Saros because of the upcoming contract. This is slightly dated, but this is one of the things that consistently drives goalie values down: There are goalies I think would return pick. I'd give 10+ for Swayman at 26 years old as would most NHL execs, I think. That would be comparable to the Cory Schneider trade from a decade ago. The schneider trade, along with the Varlamov trade a year or two before that (Varlamov was 23 years old, returned pick 11 and a second rounder which is comparable to pick 9) are the two highest trade returns for goalies in the modern era as far as I am aware. I think 10 would be on the table for Saros if the Devils are okay with giving him the contract he wants, I just don't think that they will be. It's a very weird situation with goalies, that's for sure. I understand . I guess the level of volatility is much greater. I too think it’s Markstrom , but I wouldn’t be very happy . More whelmed . Ullmark woukd be my target Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 28 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said: I too think it’s Markstrom , but I wouldn’t be very happy . More whelmed . Ullmark woukd be my target So Ullmark is interesting because he has a 15 team no trade, which is huuuuuuuuuge for a goalie. No trade clauses don't operate the same for goalies because you can really whittle down who you need to put on the list as teams only want so many and you largely only want to pay one. As a skater, it's really hard to limit the field. But Ullmark? He doesn't need to put teams with highly paid or established starters on his list. So he's not going to burn any of his NTC on these guys: Islanders Winnipeg Dallas Rangers Florida Tampa Vancouver Nashville (even if they trade Saros, they still have Askarov...the Predators would be a complicated trade partner because it likely requires multiple moves. Utah has Conor Ingram, not sure they are making that move. Then you start making some educated guesses: St Louis - Binnington has an 18 team no trade which means he probably isn't going anywhere this year. Coming off a good year. His contract (he's a rental with one year left) and big no trade for a goalie makes him unappealing for bad teams who aren't going to compete this year because they probably can't turn him around for profit this year. So a team like Anaheim, uncompetitive and already having highly paid John Gibson probably won't have interest. Montreal is paying price a ton to be on LTIR and signed Montembeault and have Primeau. Seems unlikely to go there. Columbus has Elvis they still need to unload. Edmonton has 9 million in space left and has a ton of people to sign. They may need to shed cap elsewhere as it is. Probably don't need to worry about them. Buffalo has UPL and Levi...not sure they are targeting him. So all of a sudden, you've basically crafted a full no trade clause just by knowing each team's situation. If he doesn't want to move, I think there's a strong chance he won't. If he's willing to move, it's going to be a very limited number of teams, which may make him decently cheap. However, I'm not sure how much interest the devils have in him. He's a rental, and I would expect his next contract to come in at 5 years @ 6 million per with a full NMC for at least half the contract. I don't know if the devils analytics department wants to give that contract out to a guy who is a 50% starter. Boston agreed to trade Ullmark last year at the deadline, and the team that was acquiring him was not the devils...I find that very interesting given their situation last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beekay414 Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 I'm just excited to have a structured defensive system for the first time in ******* ages. Tired of the ridiculous amounts of wide open collapses that Ruff's and Hynes' systems before him had. Fix the goaltending and this team takes off overnight under Keefe. We're more talented than the Leafs, no question about it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Just now, beekay414 said: I'm just excited to have a structured defensive system for the first time in ******* ages. Tired of the ridiculous amounts of wide open collapses that Ruff's and Hynes' systems before him had. Fix the goaltending and this team takes off overnight under Keefe. We're more talented than the Leafs, no question about it. Especially on defense 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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